Can Red Sox make a playoff push this summer? Three reasons for optimism (and one red flag).
Boston's pitching behind Garrett Crochet has taken a huge step forward as of late.
The Red Sox are on a roll.
Fresh off of completing a four-game sweep of the Rays on Sunday, Boston entered the All-Star Break amid a 10-game winning streak — the franchise’s longest since posting 10 consecutive wins from July 2-12, 2018.
In a season rife with drama and inconsistent play, Boston seems to finally be putting it all together.
Sitting at 53-45, Boston is now just three games behind the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — and have a 55.8 percent chance of punching their ticket to the postseason for the first time since 2021 (per FanGraphs).
But as the Red Sox look to carry that momentum over after the Midsummer Classic, it remains to be seen if this Boston roster chock-full of young talent has the means to earn a spot in October.
As the Boston sports sphere shifts its focus to Fenway this summer, here are a few reasons for optimism as to why the Red Sox could be poised to go on a run in the dog days of the summer, as well as a few concerns for Alex Cora’s club.
The pitching is settling into a groove
At this point of the season, Red Sox fans know what to expect from the team’s ace, Garrett Crochet.
The 26-year-old lefty has been as advertised as Boston’s sought-after No. 1 pitcher this summer — sporting a 10-4 record to go along with a 2.23 ERA and a league-leading 129.1 innings pitched and 160 strikeouts.
Whenever Crochet is on the mound, the Red Sox have a prime chance to post a victory. But the southpaw only pitches once every five days.
If the Red Sox want to establish themselves as a legitimate contender down the stretch, they’re going to need other starters behind Crochet to carry that momentum over after the team’s ace tosses a gem.
As such, it should come as little surprise that Boston’s recent hot streak has coincided with two other starters in Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello establishing themselves as impact arms in the rotation.
While the Red Sox reportedly mull their options as they try to acquire a No. 2 starter behind Crochet before the July 31 trade deadline, both Giolito and Bello have fit the bill in such a role.
After sporting a 6.42 ERA over his first seven starts, Giolito has lowered that ERA to 3.36 in the span of just six starts, with the righty allowing just three earned runs over his last 38.2 innings of work (0.70 ERA).
Bello has also seemingly put it all together, with the 26-year-old righty posting a 4-2 record with a 2.61 ERA over his last eight appearances. He has now compiled seven straight quality starts, while allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 15 starts so far in 2025.
“The kid today, that was electric… He’s grown so much in the last three years,” Alex Cora said of Bello after his last start against the Rays on Sunday per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. Now he’s striking people out, controlling the running game. It was good to see the ovation, too. I told him, ‘Hey, get ready and enjoy it.’”
Since the start of July, Boston’s pitchers are first in MLB with a team ERA of 2.17, with the Sox’s starters 8-0 over that stretch with a 2.05 ERA.
The kids are (more than) alright
A Red Sox lineup operating with plenty of question marks was seemingly dealt a death blow in June.
Just a few weeks after Alex Bregman landed on the IL with a quad strain, the Red Sox opted to trade their best hitter in Rafael Devers to the Giants, ending months of drama regarding the disgruntled slugger’s place in the infield.
But Boston has more than managed to stay afloat offensively over the last few weeks — due in large part to the Red Sox’s crop of promising young players sprinkled across the lineup.
Ceddanne Rafaela’s moonshot over the Green Monster to clinch a walk-off win on Friday stands as the top moment so far this season from a surging Red Sox roster.
But beyond that big fly, Rafaela has arguably been one of the best players in baseball for over a month now.
Beyond his sterling defensive play in center field, Rafaela has developed into an impact bat over the last month, batting .421 with a 1.410 OPS over the span of a 10-game hitting streak that includes six doubles, five home runs, and 15 RBI.
Over his last 21 games, Rafaela leads MLB in doubles (10), extra-base hits (18), RBI (22, tied), total bases (61), and SLG (.782), while ranking second in the AL in OPS (1.152) and tied for third in home runs with eight.
“He’s a pleasure to watch,” Trevor Story said of Rafaela on Sunday, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. “He can do everything on the baseball field. He can run, he can hit, he can throw. It feels like he can play any position at an elite level. His at-bats are incredible. He’s coming up with really clutch hits and controlling the zone, doing his thing and he has made a lot of progress there.
“Like I tell him, he’s my favorite player. He’s my favorite player to watch. He’s just electric. He brings a lot to our team, obviously, and he’s been on a heater.”
Rafaela is far from the only youngster to step up for Boston over the last few weeks.
After some initial growing pains, Roman Anthony is validating the hype that came with his standing as the No. 1 prospect in baseball.
After doubling on Sunday against Tampa, Anthony is in the midst of a nine-game hit streak — with the 21-year-old outfielder becoming the youngest Red Sox to post a hit streak of nine-plus games since Tony Conigliaro in 1965.
Anthony is batting .389 with four extra-base hits, six RBI, 10 runs scored and a 1.044 OPS over those nine games — and is batting .341 with a .431 on-base percentage and a .931 OPS so far in July.
Add in the continued strong play both behind (and at) the plate in rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez (.273 batting average, eight home runs, 31 RBI, a league-best 20 runners caught stealing) and contributions from fellow blue-chip prospect Marcelo Mayer, and Boston has the makings of a uber-skilled roster with nothing to lose — and plenty to gain over the next few months.
Reinforcements are on the way
The Red Sox are already playing their best baseball midway through July.
But help should be on the way for Boston moving forward, headlined by the return of Bregman to the lineup.
It’s a testament to Bregman’s impact in Boston that the two-time World Series champion earned an All-Star nod despite missing over six weeks of action due to a quad strain.
In just 53 games with Boston, Bregman is batting .298 with 18 doubles, 11 home runs and 35 RBI, with the third baseman still fourth on the club in total WAR (2.9).
But beyond the lift that Bregman should provide in the heart of the lineup, the writing is on the wall that Craig Breslow and Boston’s top brass will add another impact player or two before the July 31 trade deadline.
With Boston already dealing with a roster logjam that could make an impact outfielder with years of team control like Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu expendable, Breslow has the opportunity to add an impact arm that could bolster an already stout group of starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito.
“Aroldis Chapman’s going nowhere, Alex Bregman’s going nowhere,” ESPN’s MLB insider Jeff Passan said Monday. “They’re going to add, and if they get another starting pitcher who can be at the top of that rotation with Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello pitching so well, Lucas Giolito — the Boston Red Sox are legitimate World Series contenders.”
But a daunting schedule awaits
The top concern facing Boston beyond the expected fears of injuries or regression?
A gauntlet of a second-half schedule that would test even the strongest rosters over the final two months of the 2025 campaign.
According to Tankathon, the Red Sox currently have the third-toughest schedule left in 2025 among all 30 MLB teams — with Boston returning from the All-Star break with six-straight road games against the Cubs and Phillies, followed up by a three-game homestand against the Dodgers.
Boston also has three games remaining against arguably the top team in the AL in the Tigers, to go along with six games against the AL-West-leading Astros.
The Red Sox have been prone to fizzling out down the stretch over the last few seasons.
Last season, a 53-43 Red Sox team plummeted during the dog days — going 28-38 to close out the year en route to a third-straight campaign without playoff baseball.
Boston also went 30-41 in the second half of 2023 as part of another letdown campaign.
Even during Boston’s last trip to the postseason in 2021, the Red Sox’s surprise run to the ALCS followed an uninspiring end to the regular season, where Boston finished just three games over .500 in the second half.
If the 2025 Red Sox want to prove that they’re cut from a different cloth when compared to the last few Boston squads, they’re going to need to carry this strong play into crunch-time situations in August and September.
“That’s just in the past,” Trevor Story said of Boston’s second-half struggles the last few years, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. “That’s a big part of why we’ve been successful: We’re in the moment, we’re very present, not worried about what we did yesterday. We’ve got to show up today and win a game. I think with that mindset, it’s hard to live in the past or in the future. That’s a big part of our team and our identity.”
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