What oddsmakers, analytic models are projecting for Red Sox, top stars in 2025
Both oddsmakers and analytic models believe the Red Sox will be one of the top teams in the American League in 2025.
After weeks and weeks of spring training baseball, Opening Day is in sight.
The Red Sox will open the 2025 campaign on Thursday when they take on the Rangers in Texas. It’ll mark the start of one of the most anticipated Red Sox seasons in at least a few years. They made a few big-time additions (Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler) while a few of the game’s top prospects seem likely to make their MLB debuts this season.
As there’s a considerable amount of buzz surrounding the Red Sox, the expectations surrounding the team seem to match that, too. Let’s take a look at analytic models and oddsmakers (via DraftKings Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted) view the Red Sox entering the 2025 regular season.
Red Sox’ odds and projections
Win total: 86.5
Odds to win AL East: +350 (third-best odds)
Odds to make playoffs: -105
Odds to win AL pennant: +900 (tied for fourth-best odds)
Odds to win World Series: +2000 (eighth-best odds)
FanGraphs projected record: 85-77 (second-best in AL and AL East)
FanGraphs projected playoff odds: 56 percent
FanGraphs projected odds to win AL East: 18.6 percent
FanGraphs projected odds to win World Series: 4.7 percent (fifth-best odds)
If you feel like this is the best the Red Sox have looked entering a regular season in some time, you wouldn’t be alone. Their 86.5 win total is the highest they’ve had since 2019, when they had a 94.5 win total following their World Series run in 2018. Their preseason odds to win the AL East, the AL pennant, and World Series are also the best since that year, too.
Garrett Crochet
MLB strikeouts leader odds: +750 (second-best)
Strikeouts over/under: 199.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB wins leader odds: +2200 (tied for seventh-best)
ERA over/under: 3.00
Odds to win AL Cy Young: +450 (second-best)
Baseball-Reference projection: 6-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 160 strikeouts, 127 innings pitched
FanGraphs projection: 13-7, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 200 strikeouts, 157 innings pitched
Oddsmakers project Crochet to be one of the best pitchers in baseball this upcoming season with the projection models seeming to have different opinions based on how much they think he’ll pitch. Baseball-Reference’s projection seems to be conservative in how much Crochet will pitch in 2025, with the 127 innings being 19 fewer than what he pitched last year as the White Sox load managed him in the second half of the year.
But it wouldn’t be a shock if Crochet throws the most strikeouts this season. His 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched would’ve been the best in baseball last season if he threw enough innings to qualify. He also had 30 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings in spring training.
Tanner Houck
MLB strikeouts leader odds: +15000
MLB wins leader odds: +5500
ERA over/under: 4.00
Odds to win AL Cy Young: +3000
Baseball-Reference projection: 8-10, 3.68 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 140 strikeouts, 154 innings pitched
FanGraphs projection: 11-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 161 strikeouts, 180 innings pitched
Oddsmakers and the projection models seem to think that Houck will take a slight step back following his breakout 2024 campaign, but still believe he’ll have a solid 2025 season. Houck had a team-high 3.12 ERA last season, pitching 178 2/3 innings.
Houck’s spring training wasn’t great, posting an 11.20 ERA over four outings. Obviously, Houck and the Red Sox are hoping that isn’t a sign of things to come, but he also had a poor spring training before struggling in 2023.
Walker Buehler
MLB strikeouts leader odds: +15000
Odds to win AL Cy Young: +9000
Baseball-Reference projection: 4-6, 4.59 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 88 strikeouts, 98 innings pitched
FanGraphs projection: 8-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 127 strikeouts, 148 innings pitched
Similar to Crochet, Baseball-Reference seems to be conservative in its projection of how much Buehler will pitch this season considering his recent injury history. He pitched 75 1/3 innings last year after returning from Tommy John surgery in May. He struggled in the regular season (5.38 ERA) before having a strong postseason run, recording a 3.60 ERA in 15 playoff innings for the Dodgers.
Brayan Bello
MLB strikeouts leader odds: +20000
MLB wins leader odds: +6000
ERA over/under: 4.00
Odds to win AL Cy Young: +15000
Baseball-Reference projection: 12-9, 4.18 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 147 strikeouts, 157 innings pitched
FanGraphs projection: 10-10, 4.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 140 strikeouts, 153 innings pitched
Bello’s projections seem to be right in line with how he’s pitched in his career. His ERA has sat between 4.49-4.71 through each of his first three seasons, but he recorded a career-high 153 strikeouts last year.
The righty will begin the season on the injured list, which might make it tough for him to lead the league in anything. However, Alex Cora has said that Bello is expected to return sometime in April.
Alex Bregman
MLB home runs leader odds: +15000
Home runs over/under: 21.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Batting average over/under: .260
MLB doubles leader odds: +1600
MLB RBIs leader odds: +5000
AL MVP odds: +6000
Baseball-Reference projection: .257 batting average, .778 OPS, 21 home runs, 27 doubles, 75 RBIs
FanGraphs projection: .260 batting average, .784 OPS, 24 home runs, 32 doubles, 89 RBIs
Bregman’s projected stats at the plate are in line with how he hit last season (.260 batting average, 26 home runs), but there’s some hope he can hit even better now that Fenway Park is his home stadium. His 1.240 OPS at Fenway is the best mark ever among all players with at least 95 plate appearances. He also hit incredibly well at Fenway South in spring training, recording a .353 batting average and three home runs over 14 games at the venue.
Rafael Devers
MLB home runs leader odds: +5500
Home runs over/under: 29.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB hits leader odds: +5000
Batting average over/under: .270
MLB runs leader odds: +5000
MLB doubles leader odds: +1900
MLB RBIs leader odds: +2500
AL MVP odds: +2500 (10th-best odds)
Baseball-Reference projection: .273 batting average, .846 OPS, 26 home runs, 31 doubles, 80 RBIs
FanGraphs projection: .270 batting average, .854 OPS, 32 home runs, 100 RBIs, 35 doubles, 100 RBIs
Devers’s stats over the last two seasons were pretty similar. He had a .272 batting average in 2023 and a .271 batting average in 2024. He recorded a .851 OPS in 2023 and a .871 OPS last season. He hit 28 homers in 2024 after hitting 33 the year prior.
So, it isn’t a surprise that Devers’s projections in each stat are around those marks. The big wrinkle going into this year is that he’ll be a full-time designated hitter, at least to open the regular season.
Jarren Duran
Home runs over/under: 18.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB stolen bases leader odds: +3000
Stolen bases over/under: 30.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB hits leader odds: +4000
Batting average over/under: 0.260
MLB doubles leader odds: +700 (best odds)
MLB triples leader odds: +700 (second-best odds)
AL MVP odds: +3500
Baseball-Reference projection: .275 batting average, .797 OPS, 16 home runs, 40 doubles, eight triples, 62 RBIs, 28 stolen bases
FanGraphs projection: .263 batting average, .777 OPS, 18 home runs, 39 doubles, nine triples, 75 RBIs, 28 stolen bases
Duran was arguably one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season, using his speed to become an All-Star a longshot MVP candidate. Both oddsmakers and projection models seem to think he’ll get a lot of extra-base hits again. He led all of baseball in doubles (48) and triples (14) in 2024. Additionally, he had 34 stolen bases and 21 home runs.
Triston Casas
MLB home runs leader odds: +15000
Home runs over/under: 24.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
AL MVP odds: +6500
Baseball-Reference projection: .255 batting average, .815 OPS, 17 home runs, 14 doubles, 48 RBIs
FanGraphs projection: .247 batting average, .813 OPS, 27 home runs, 26 doubles, 84 RBIs
Baseball-Reference only projects Casas to record 327 plate appearances in 2025 after he missed a few months last season due to a rib injury. So, that explains the major difference in stat projections between the two models.
Casas hit 13 homers in just 63 games last season, building off his strong finish to the 2023 season. His 16.3 at-bats per home run was the second-best mark on the Red Sox last season.
Other notable odds
Roman Anthony’s odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +550 (second-best odds)
Kristian Campbell’s odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +800 (third-best odds)
Marcelo Mayer’s odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: +4000
Alex Cora’s odds to win AL Manager of the Year: +750 (fifth-best odds)
With the Red Sox holding a few of the top prospects in baseball, they have a few candidates for AL Rookie of the Year. Anthony has the best odds of the group, though it appears he’ll start the year in the minors. Campbell is reportedly expected to be the Red Sox’ starting second baseman, which could give him an early edge in the Rookie of the Year race. Mayer, meanwhile, hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet and is currently blocked by Trevor Story at shortstop, which might explain his long odds.
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