Red Sox listed among betting favorites for handful of top free agents this offseason
While the Red Sox aren't the odds-on for any player, they hold the third-best odds or better for three of the top free agents.
The Red Sox seem set to be players in free agency this offseason. Oddsmakers believe they will be, too.
Boston is listed among the few favorites to a handful of the top free agents this offseason at DraftKings Sportsbook. While they aren’t the odds-on for any player, they hold the third-best odds or better for three of the top free agents.
As MLB free agency began on Monday, we likely won’t know for a matter of weeks if the betting odds on each player were a good prognosticator for the offseason. But they can at least show who is in the mix for each top free agent. So, let’s take a look at the Red Sox’ betting odds to land each top free agent.
Juan Soto
Red Sox’ odds to sign Soto: +2500
Soto is the top target on the free-agent market this offseason. He’s also the one top free agent that oddsmakers view as a longshot for the Red Sox to sign. Boston’s odds are the eighth-highest among the teams listed to land Soto. They trail the favorites, the Yankees (-130) and Mets (+160). They also trail “any other team,” which is listed at +900 odds.
Boston having relatively low odds to land Soto makes some sense. The Red Sox are about to deal with a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders with Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu on the roster and top prospect Roman Anthony waiting in the wings. The Red Sox also have other needs that probably require them to spend money on this offseason, such as starting pitching or adding a right-handed hitter with power.
Additionally, Soto seems likely to sign one of the largest contracts in MLB history. Most projections have him receiving a contract north of $600 million, which is why the teams who’ve consistently had the highest payrolls in baseball over the last few years are among the favorites to sign Soto.
Alex Bregman
Red Sox’ odds to sign Bregman: +950
The Red Sox have better odds to sign Bregman than Soto, but they’re still viewed as a relative longshot compared to the rest of the field. They hold the eighth-best odds to be Bregman’s next team as the Astros (+380).
A possible pursuit of Bregman would either force the Red Sox to shift around their infield or for the standout third baseman to switch positions. Of course, the Red Sox have Rafael Devers, so they don’t have a need for a third baseman. However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal theorized before the offseason that the Red Sox could sign Bregman, move Devers to first base, and trade first baseman Triston Casas for pitching help.
Bregman isn’t married to the idea of sticking at third base, though. His agent, Scott Boras, recently shared that Bregman would be willing to play second base.
The Red Sox don’t seem to know who their second baseman will be yet for 2025. Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton figure to be in the mix while Kristian Campbell, who became one of the top prospects in baseball during the 2024 season, might also enter the picture in 2025. So, that could allow the Red Sox to add Bregman without having to move one of their starting corner infielders.
Blake Snell
Red Sox’ odds to sign Snell: +600
The Red Sox have the third-best odds to sign Snell, but they’re right behind co-favored Padres and Mets (+550).
Boston’s need for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher is abundantly clear. It could also use a southpaw in the rotation as the vast majority of its games were started by righties last season.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow even admitted that the team needs help at the top of the rotation.
“I think we have to,” Breslow told The Boston Globe‘s Alex Speier when asked if the team will pursue a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. “We have lofty goals. We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation. I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”
Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award, would fit the bill. After struggling with the Giants at the start of the 2024 season, going 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his final 14 starts.
While the Red Sox have good odds to land Snell, they didn’t seem to be too linked to him when he was a free agent last offseason. He didn’t sign until right before the regular season began as it was rumored he preferred to pitch on the West Coast as he’s a native of Washington.
Corbin Burnes
Red Sox’ odds to sign Burnes: +500
Burnes is the free agent that DraftKings believes the Red Sox are most likely to sign. At +500, Boston holds the second-best odds to land him, as the New York Mets (+450) are the only other team that has better odds.
The Orioles ace is widely viewed as the top free-agent pitcher this offseason. Burnes, 30, went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA in his first season with Baltimore, helping earn his fourth All-Star nod. The former Brewers pitcher was named an All-Star three times during his time in Milwaukee, winning NL Cy Young in 2021.
As Burnes seems to be the consensus No. 1 pitcher on the free agent market, he won’t come cheap. Many prognosticators project Burnes to sign a deal that’s worth at least $200 million, such as The Athletic‘s Jim Bowden, who predicts he’ll sign a seven-year, $247 million pact.
If the Red Sox were to sign Burnes, they’d still have the problem of having a righty-dominant rotation. But he pitched relatively well against AL East foes last season, with the Red Sox being the only team in the division he didn’t have a sub-2.50 ERA against. That might be why two of MLB Trade Rumors’ four writers predicted the Red Sox to sign Burnes entering the offseason.
Max Fried
Red Sox’ odds to sign Fried: +600
Just like the other two premium pitchers on the free-agent market, the Red Sox are among the three favorites to sign Fried. Their +600 odds are the third-best as they’re right behind the Cubs (+500) and Dodgers (+550).
Boston has already been linked to Fried this offseason as it, along with Baltimore and Toronto, is one of the three teams that’s already “all in” on the lefty, the New York Post‘s Jon Heyman recently reported.
Fried has consistently been among the best left-handed pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. He had another strong year in 2024, going 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA.
While Fried doesn’t have any ties to Boston, he does have a connection with a player on the team. He and Lucas Giolito were classmates and teammates at Harvard-Westlake High School. He also attended Game 1 of the World Series with Fried, watching their former high school teammate Jack Flaherty pitch as they only heightened rumors of Fried joining the Red Sox.
Pete Alonso
Red Sox’ odds to sign Alonso: +800
Boston also has decent odds to sign Alonso. At +800, it has the fifth-best odds to land the star first baseman as Washington is the favorite at +450.
Similar to Bregman, the Red Sox don’t have a positional need for Alonso and would have to juggle their infield around in order to make it work. They’d likely have to move Casas to open up first base or trade Masataka Yoshida so they could be a bit more flexible at designated hitter.
But the Red Sox could use Alonso’s bat. The right-handed slugger has consistently been among the game’s best power hitters since he entered the league, hitting at least 30 homers in each of the non-COVID seasons he’s played. He hit .240 with 34 homers last season.
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