Has Brayan Bello turned the corner for the Red Sox after slow start to the season?
Bello allowed just one run against the Orioles on Saturday, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning.
Brayan Bello struggled to live up to the expectations in the role as the Red Sox’ ace in the first few months of the 2024 season.
The righty had a 5.55 ERA at the end of June despite holding a winning record at the time (7-5). Opposing hitters were putting up strong numbers against him as well, hitting .270 with an .800 OPS.
However, Bello’s numbers have rebounded since then. He had a pair of quality starts prior to the All-Star break and has mostly been in a groove since the season resumed.
That groove continued on Saturday, with Bello arguably having his best start of the season. The Orioles’ dangerous lineup didn’t record a hit against Bello through the first five innings. Gunnar Henderson eventually recorded Baltimore’s first hit, a solo homer in the sixth, but Bello was pretty solid outside of that. He allowed one run on two hits, three walks, and six strikeouts over six innings in the Red Sox’ 5-1 win over the Orioles on Saturday.
“Everything went right from start to finish,” Bello told reporters through an interpreter. “Everything was working. … Since the beginning, it felt like one of the better outings I’ve thrown this year.”
Following Saturday’s outing, Bello has a 3.44 ERA in his six starts since the All-Star break. Additionally, he’s recorded a 1.235 WHIP and 35 strikeouts over 34 innings pitched, marking improvements in both categories from the first three months of the season (1.472 WHIP, 64 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings).
Red Sox manager Alex Cora has noticed Bello’s improvements over the last several weeks.
“He has been throwing the ball well for a while,” Cora said. “The stuff has been there for the last two months. Now, it’s about executing. He did an amazing job.”
Bello believes that his improved pitching since the All-Star break is due to his command in attacking the strike zone.
“The biggest difference between months is that I’m really confident in myself, really confident in the way I’m attacking the strike zone,” Bello said. “I’m attacking the strike zone a lot more now. Overall, just really confident in where I’m at.”
Bello actually has a lower strike percentage since the break than he did in the first three months of the season. Sixty-three of Bello’s pitches before the end of June went for a strike while 62 percent of his pitches since the break have been a strike.
But Bello is inducing more swings and misses. Fourteen percent of his strikes have been through swing-and-miss since the All-Star break, which is up four percent from what it was through the first three months.
Those swings and misses have obviously led to better results from Bello. Opposing hitters are hitting .224 with a .700 OPS against Bello since the break.
Bello believes his changeup has played a big hand in post-All-Star break success, pointing to the success he had with the pitch following Saturday’s win.
“The changeup was really working and I just didn’t want to change things up because it was going so well,” Bello said.
Bello’s changeup accounted for eight of the 15 swings-and-misses he recorded on Saturday. It’s been his best pitch for the 2024 season, with opposing hitters having a .174 batting average against Bello’s changeup this season. His changeup has also induced more strikeouts as well, recording a 32 percent strikeout rate with the pitch since the break, up from the 21 percent number it was at when June ended, per Baseball Savant.
However, Cora believes Bello’s other pitches have also been a bit more successful recently.
“Velocity was up, action of the changeup was good,” Cora said. “Kept them off balance. I haven’t looked at the numbers but I do believe we used the sinker more tonight than in previous outings. Obviously, they’re gonna make adjustments, and he’s gonna make adjustments, but what he did tonight, that was fun.
“He beat them to the spot with the sinker and the four-seamer. He used his four-seamer very effectively today. The changeup was great. Not too many sliders, I don’t believe. [Red Sox catcher Danny] Jansen and Brayan were locked it, it seems. A little bit different than in the past. You have to do that against good teams.”
Bello’s sinker was his worst pitch through the first three months of the season, with opposing hitters recording a .341 batting average against it. It still hasn’t been stellar since the All-Star break (opposing hitters have had a .286 batting average against Bello’s sinker in that stretch), but it was the best it’s been all season on Saturday. Baltimore was 1-for-10 against Bello’s sinker in Boston’s win.
Bello’s slider has also improved. As opposing hitters had a .265 batting average and a 29 percent strikeout rate against it through the first three months of the season, they’re now hitting .156 against Bello’s slider with a 30 percent strikeout rate. Bello’s also allowed just two hits off his four-seamer since the break, though it’s his most infrequent pitch.
It could be argued that Bello’s been a bit lucky since the All-Star break. His expected batting average against (.249) is higher than his batting average against (.224) and his FIP (4.44) is one run higher than his ERA (3.44).
However, Bello was a bit unlucky in the first half of the year. His batting average against (.270) was higher than his expected batting average against (.252) and his ERA (5.55) was higher than his FIP (4.86).
Whether it’s just luck evening out or not, Bello’s improved results in recent weeks have been much-needed for the Red Sox’ pitching staff. Cora will certainly take it, too.
“Right now, we’re not looking for no-hitters or perfect games,” Cora said. “We’re looking for Ws. And that was a big one for us.”
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