Charting the Red Sox’ paths to a playoff spot, winning AL East
Not only are the Red Sox in possession of a wild-card spot, but they're also within five games of the AL East lead.
To the surprise of many, the Red Sox enter the All-Star break holding a playoff spot.
The Red Sox improved to 53-42 with their win over Kansas City on Sunday. As the Royals were the team closest to them for the final wild-card spot entering the day, the Red Sox now have a two-game cushion for the last playoff spot.
Not only is Boston in control of its playoff destiny, but it’s also within reach of first place in the American League East. The Orioles regained the division lead on Sunday with their win over the Yankees, putting them a game ahead of New York. But the Red Sox are only 4.5 games behind the Orioles and 3.5 back of the Yankees.
With the All-Star break here, let’s take a look at the Red Sox’ path to securing a playoff spot and potentially stealing a division title.
The path to getting a wild card spot
The Red Sox held a 43.7 percent chance to win one of the three wild-card spots in the American League on FanGraphs entering Sunday. That mark trailed only the Orioles (59.4 percent) and Twins (45.8 percent) as FanGraphs has the Yankees and Guardians favored to win the AL East and AL Central, respectively.
In addition to giving the Red Sox the third-best odds for a wild-card spot, FanGraphs is projecting them to win roughly 85 games. That wouldn’t be good enough to secure the final spot in their projections though, as they project six other teams to finish with more wins in the American League.
If you’re wondering where the AL West factors into all of this, FanGraphs has the division as a near tossup between the Astros (47.8 percent) and Mariners (47.4 percent). But it’s giving the runner-up in that division a relatively slim chance of clinching a wild-card spot, with both teams having odds lower than 15 percent for securing a wild-card berth.
So, as the Red Sox’ odds of a wild-card spot are a near coinflip, there isn’t much room for error in the second half of the season. The bad news is that they’ve got the eighth-toughest schedule remaining in the majors, with their remaining opponents holding a .509 winning percentage.
On the flip side, the other contenders for the AL’s final wild-card spot also have tough schedules. The Twins, who entered Sunday with a 1.5-game lead on the Red Sox, have the seventh-toughest remaining schedule in baseball (.510). The Royals aren’t too far behind, holding the 10th-toughest remaining schedule in baseball (.507).
The surging Astros have a bit of an easier path. As Houston entered Sunday 2.5 games behind Boston, it has the 16th-easiest remaining schedule in baseball (.501). The Mariners, who were ahead of the Astros by just one game and trailed the Red Sox by 1.5 games entering Sunday, have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule (.483).
The Red Sox play each of those teams at least one more time the rest of the way. They close out July with a three-game homestand against the Mariners. They travel to Kansas City in the first week of August, and host the Twins in the penultimate week of the regular season. Meanwhile, they host the Astros following their trip to Kansas City and head to Houston for a three-game set on Aug. 19.
For the Red Sox, 12 of their final 21 series are against teams that have a record above .500 entering the break. The Twins also have 12 series against opponents with a winning record. The Royals and Astros each have 11 while the Mariners have nine series against opponents who are above .500.
While the Red Sox, Twins, Mariners, Royals, and Astros all have losing records against teams below .500, Boston had the worst mark against such teams (18-27). However. they’ve been better against teams with a winning record since the start of June, winning nine of their last 14 such games.
Still, it’s apparent that the Red Sox will need to continue to pick up wins against the bottom-dwellers (they’re 35-15 against opponents with a record below .500) and hope that they can at least split the remaining games against their fellow contenders.
The path to winning the AL East.
As you would expect, the Red Sox’ chances of winning the division are slimmer. They only had a 2.9 percent chance of winning the AL East on FanGraphs entering Sunday. FanGraphs gave the Yankees (61 percent) the best odds of winning the division entering the day. The Orioles sat in between the Yankees and Red Sox, holding 35.9 percent odds to win the division.
Despite the Yankees’ recent skid, FanGraphs remains bullish on them, projecting New York to win approximately 94 games. It projects Baltimore to win approximately 92 games, roughly eight more than it projects Boston to win.
As both teams are ahead of the Red Sox by a few games, they also have schedule advantages as well. The Yankees have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule in baseball (.492) and the Orioles have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule in baseball (.491). They each have nine more series against teams with a record above .500 the rest of the way.
The Red Sox will get opportunities though to cut into each of their division rivals’ leads multiple times before the season ends. They host the Yankees for a three-game set later in July and make the trip to The Bronx for a four-game set in the middle of September. They travel to Baltimore for a four-game series in the middle of August before welcoming the Orioles for three games right before they face the Yankees for the final of the season.
Boston is 1-5 against Baltimore and 4-2 against New York so far this season.
Even if their odds of winning the division are slim, passing just one of the Yankees or Orioles would greatly benefit the Red Sox. The runner-up of the AL East is shaping up to get the top wild-card spot in the American League, which would mean that they would get to host the entire best-of-three Wild Card Series instead of having to travel.
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