Red Sox need to act remains as baseball stuck in an increasingly usual freeze
Several of the top free agents remain unsigned and some teams have been just as quiet as the Red Sox, giving them an opportunity to pounce.
COMMENTARY
Two weeks from Friday, the Red Sox will hold their annual Winter Weekend, a mildly notable development considering the only thing you remember about last year’s is the booing.
A lot can happen in two weeks, but as it stands, their strongest move toward preventing a repeat is inviting a half-dozen Hall of Fame alumni to this year’s event.
Hyperbole? The theme of waiting for something sure feels apt. And it’s not as though the 162 games in the intervening year, attended by the third-fewest fans of the John Henry era, did much.
Two months into the stewardship of the new Yalie in charge, the Red Sox moves have largely been around the edges. Solidifying what last year required near-daily roster shuffling, while perhaps improving it incrementally.
Lucas Giolito is, ideally, a mid-rotation stalwart who bounces back from a personally difficult year. If only Vaughn Grissom, acquired for the end days of Chris Sale, can deliver on the promise he showed while stuck in Triple A. (And prove his ugly defensive numbers in the majors are fixable.)
Tyler O’Neill? Health, health, health. When he can play, he can play. Alas, those chortles a lot of us had when Atlanta extended Sale on Thursday echo those elsewhere for those mentioned above. Really? You’re gonna count on that guy? Good luck!
The Red Sox of Jan. 5 might only be level with the bunch from 2023, given Adam Duvall, Justin Turner, and James Paxton are all free agents. That is, to be fair, not entirely Craig Breslow’s fault. Boston’s cool heels are largely mirrored around the sport, with about half the big free agents unsigned and the biggest trade made probably Sale’s.
Shohei Ohtani (who, to be clear, the Sox were never signing) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who, well, they might have) basically used Eastern teams to get more out West. Aaron Nola was never leaving Philadelphia. My personal alarm bell won’t ring until Jordan Montgomery, a logical fit betting markets have had coming to Boston for months, lands somewhere other than here.
Speaking of, my mind whirred at that SNY report Thursday that “the Yankees are planning an active January” and “the industry expectation is that they will make at least one impactful addition to their pitching staff before spring training.” Going from busting Giancarlo Stanton about injuries to signing Blake Snell in the same winter . . . life comes at you fast.
Others, however, have not waited. The Cardinals traded O’Neill as part of an offseason where they remade their rotation with Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. The Royals added Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, each potential secondary additions in Boston, plus old friend Hunter Renfroe. The Tigers did something similar, signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda.
Arizona, which despite that National League pennant won all of six more games than the 2023 Red Sox did and was below .500 on Aug. 14, supplemented Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly with Eduardo Rodriguez. The Giants made their Masataka Yoshida, “How much? For him?!” signing, giving Korean star Jung-hoo Lee $113 million.
Aiming higher, as the Red Sox appear to be, is not inherently a problem. It only becomes one if you miss, especially when the people watching your archery have rightfully stopped assuming you’ll hit because you always have eventually.
It’s a strange time in big-time sports, which universally has gotten way too good at making short money and way too OK with discouraging excellence to do it. Expanded playoffs aren’t all bad, but they are a pretty compelling reason to stop teams trying to buy a World Series. It’s almost like it’s part of the design.
Even in the straight LCS era, the Dodgers would be among maybe three or four teams with a genuine chance to win an NL pennant. Today? There’s going to be six to eight if they have a $700 million payroll this year, and their chances aren’t going to be a magnitude better than everyone else’s when everyone hits the Division Series three losses from an October flop.
You can’t tell me otherwise when the Diamondbacks are defending that pennant, having taken it from the 2022 winners — an 87-win, third-place Phillies team. Or when the Rangers won the World Series after they went 50-52 to finish the regular season.
Why should the Red Sox spend, then? When with a couple better weeks last summer they could have somehow been in the mix?
Because eventually, even in a city that hasn’t been as remarkably lucky as this one with its dominant teams winning championships, the people tune out.
The winter after the lowest full-season attendance of the Henry Era, the Red Sox extended Rafael Devers. Last season, in spite of another 78-win mess, attendance at Fenway rose roughly two percent to 2.672 million, the aforementioned third-lowest. (The 93-win Sox of 2002 drew 2.65 million.) As that happened, attendance jumped almost 10 percent leaguewide. Only four teams saw their numbers drop.
Put another way: The Angels and Rockies came within about 75,000 each of outdrawing the Red Sox. Larger capacity ballparks, yes, but the list of less negligent franchises in the modern game is a short one.
Success in Rob Manfred’s Major League Baseball can be derived from places other than a championship parade. Lamenting that is increasingly “old man yells at cloud” stuff, but we have seen in Boston these last several years that even the strongest markets have their limit.
Those in charge know this, of course. They knew it before Henry was badgered at the Winter Classic, and before he got the coolest reception in Springfield this side of those Herkimer, New York, punks trying to steal basketball.
What it leads to, three months before the real games start again, remains an open question.
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