The Red Sox are not a great team. But the pieces are starting to fall into place, starting with Brayan Bello.
Reasons for optimism: Bello is pitching like an ace, Chaim Bloom was right about Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran is dynamic.
Just so you know, Clay Buchholz counts.
Oh yeah, he was capable of missing four to six weeks with a dislocated eyelash, then needing two more just-to-be-safe weeks on the DL after feeling a twinge in said eyelash while rehabbing in Portland. In his 10 seasons with the Red Sox — yup, he was here that long — he made more than 18 starts just four times.
He was not a durable pitcher, nor a reliable one. He probably drove you nuts. But when everything aligned just so? Buchholz was darned good, finishing sixth in the American League Cy Young voting in 2010 (17-7, 2.33 ERA, league-best 187 adjusted ERA) and going 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts for the ‘13 champs.
As maddening as Buchholz could be (I was going to say polarizing, but Marcus Smart packed up that adjective and brought it with him to Memphis), he absolutely counts as an organizational success story.
So that’s one. Mark it on the ledger. We’ve got one high-end starting pitcher developed by the Red Sox between Jon Lester’s arrival 17 seasons ago and the beauty we’re seeing now from Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox have been longing for someone like Bello for ages, a homegrown, front-of-the-rotation starter who is not just capable of excellence, but expects it from himself every time he takes the mound. The 24-year-old is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA in 15 starts in 2023, but he seems to get a little better, a little bolder, a little more electric, every time out. In his last 12 starts, his ERA is 2.35. In his last four starts? The ERA is 1.63 in 27⅔ innings, with just one home run allowed. This is what an ascent to ace status looks like.
Brayan Bello becomes the 7th pitcher to make 7 consecutive quality starts in 2023. At 24 years old, he is the youngest of the group.
Last 13 starts:
5.0, 1 ER
5.0, 2 ER
6.0, 2 ER
5.0, 1 ER
7.0, 2 ER
4.0, 1 ER
6.0, 3 ER
7.0, 2 ER
7.0, 1 ER
6.2, 1 ER
7.0, 1 ER
7.0, 2 ER
6.0, 3 ER— J.P. Long (@SoxNotes) July 15, 2023
Bello got the ball in the Red Sox’ second-half opener Friday night against the Cubs. That was a no-brainer. It’s wild that he was sent to Worcester earlier this season, because he’s so essential now. His starts are becoming anticipated events.
It’s not fair and does him no favors to even daydream of comparing him to Pedro Martinez, who I am pretty sure is the best and most charismatic pitcher I’ll ever be lucky enough to watch. But there are hints of Pedro. Hints — a filthy changeup here, a charmingly cocky moment there. And hints are more than enough.
Bello’s emergence is also a reminder of something broader. The important, big-picture stuff has mostly gone right for the Red Sox this season. Not everything — it was a bummer, if hardly stunning, to witness Chris Sale get hurt right when he started looking like himself on the mound again. And Rafael Devers has had kind of a hard-luck year, even as he’s been productive.
I’m talking more about matters that are vital to the franchise’s future, outcomes that need to go the Red Sox’ way to become true, perennial contenders again. Bello’s emergence as an ace-in-the-making is the most important one. But there are others.
Chaim Bloom sure got it right with Masataka Yoshida, didn’t he? After a brief period of acclimation, the longtime Orix Buffaloes star emerged as a high-quality offensive player. He finished the first half with a .316/.382/.492 slash line, 10 home runs, and a 134 adjusted OPS.
Red Sox players who have posted a 134 OPS+ over a full season include 2009 Jason Bay (who hit 36 homers with a .921 OPS), 2009 J.D. Drew (who had 24 homers, a .919 OPS and was much better than you remember), and 2019 Mookie Betts (who put up all sorts of staggering numbers).
Yoshida isn’t that young — he turns 30 Saturday — and truthfully he’s a two-tool player, but they’re two excellent tools. The revelation that he is the real deal — and better than pretty much any other team in baseball believed — has been a joy to behold. Nice call, Chaim.
I suspect we’ll all agree on the biggest surprise of the season so far: Jarren Duran’s rise from the depths of the Land of Flopped Prospects to become the team’s most exciting player. He’s turned the corner in a couple of ways — have you ever seen a Red Sox baserunner cut a base like he does? Not even Jacoby Ellsbury had his full-throttle speed, which has made every line-drive single to the outfield an adventure as we wait to see whether Duran will try to turn it into a double. He often does.
Duran’s development is surprising to a degree because of his age — he turns 27 in September, so it had to happen for him now. He may be more prone to slumps than some because of contact issues, but the Sox just have to ride those out, because he is truly dynamic.
Perhaps Alex Verdugo, who has been the Red Sox’ best overall player, belongs in this category too. But I want to see him dedicated and focused for more than a few months before committing to him as a potential cornerstone.
Triston Casas would probably qualify as a disappointment, and I feel like we were sold a bill of goods on his defense. But he’s trending the right way at the plate. He finally got his average over .200 on June 8 against the Indians. In his last 24 games, he’s slashed .286/.355/.464 with three home runs and six doubles.
And, of course, Marcelo Mayer is a quick road trip away in Portland, looking every bit like the next homegrown Red Sox star.
These Red Sox are not a great team. The next few weeks will tell us whether they’re even a good one. But some of the pieces of the next great Red Sox team appear to be in place. Here’s hoping that’s not too far away.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com