Is this anything more than a bridge year for the Red Sox? Maybe.
The Red Sox are hoping to have a similar turn around to 2013 when they won the World Series after not making the playoffs the previous year.
The straggling, possibly delusional optimists among us might be able to glance at this 2023 Red Sox roster, squint a little, and say, “Hmmm, looks a little like 2013 to me. Give ‘em a chance. Let’s see how this plays out.”
The rest of us – heretofore known as The Reasonable and Sane – do recognize, albeit with a lot of squinting, how the optimists might wish-cast their way to such a conclusion.
The 2013 Red Sox were following Bobby Valentine’s tired act from ‘12, when the team won 69 games, the manager alienated half the roster before they even had departed Fort Myers, and the optimists were trying to talk themselves into BABIP-king Pedro Ciriaco being the shortstop of the future.
A decade later, that redemptive 2013 team is one of the most commendable in Red Sox history. General manager Ben Cherington, in a move reminiscent of how Bill Belichick enhanced the 2001 Patriots roster with quality veterans at multiple positions, signed seven established free agents. Cherington pulled a Rennie Stennett (look it up, kids). He went 7 for 7.
All were respected and proven major leaguers. None could have been called stars at the time. But all seven – outfielders Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes, first baseman Mike Napoli, reliever Koji Uehara, shortstop Stephen Drew, catcher David Ross, and starter Ryan Dempster – contributed in a meaningful way. Victorino, Napoli, and Uehara in particular were essential to the Red Sox’ stunning turnaround and success.
That group of players, those characters with character, connected with each other, and with the city too in a profound way in the wake of the Marathon bombing. They became a team, and a crucial thread in the fabric of Boston as it recovered. They won 97 games, knocked out the Rays and Tigers in the playoffs, and dropped the Cardinals in six games to win the World Series. They will be celebrated this summer, and they will be celebrated forever.
The 2013 Red Sox are not just the absolute best-case scenario for these ‘23 Red Sox. They’re most likely an impossible scenario. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has added several veterans, among them relievers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, infielder/DH Justin Turner, starter Corey Kluber, and outfielder Adam Duvall. His idea of going big was spending $105 million on Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida.
Even if all of those players pan out ‘13-style, the team from a decade ago had much more high-end holdover talent, most notably David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Clay Buchholz went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA. It had Xander Bogaerts on the way (he would arrive that September and contribute significantly in the postseason at age 21). It had a deep lineup – every regular had an adjusted OPS of at least 110 other than Will Middlebrooks, and he contributed 17 home runs. It had enviable bench depth – Mike Carp and Daniel Nava both had an OPS over .830.
This team? It has 26-year-old slugger Rafael Devers signed long term and … well, a lot of riff-raff. Maybe Chris Sale will be healthy. Maybe Triston Casas will contribute immediately. Maybe Yoshida can replicate ‘13 Victorino’s offensive contributions (.294/.351/.451, 15 homers). Maybe, maybe, maybe. But probably not.
The outfield defense won’t remind anyone of Yaz-Lynn-Evans. Their best center fielder, Kiké Hernández, is now the shortstop because Xander Bogaerts is a Padre and Trevor Story is out for at least half the season with an elbow injury. (Maybe he threw too many sliders.) The heart of the order is Devers, probably Duvall, the unproven Casas, and Turner if he can defeat the hourglass. The bullpen is better. The starting rotation is entirely pocked with question marks.
They had better start fast – the ‘13 team went 18-8 in April – but they do not seem built to do so. There’s too much to sort out. It’s tough to bottle lightning when everything is so cloudy.
The 2013 Red Sox were in something of a bridge year, but that bridge led to the promised land and an unexpected championship. This is definitely a bridge year, but I’m not sure where it’s leading right now, in the short or long term. I want to see prospect Marcelo Mayer play a few innings for the Sea Dogs before I start anticipating his arrival in Boston – and remember, even with the best prospects, success isn’t linear. Bogaerts’s ‘14 season was a mess before he eventually developed into a franchise cornerstone. It takes time. As much as I like Cedanne Rafaela, the farm system is thin at the top.
Besides, with their resources, the Red Sox should very rarely have to assemble a team the way they did in ‘13, or the way Bloom did this offseason. The aspiration should be to mirror another championship Red Sox team: the 2007 squad.
Theo Epstein constructed that team with holdover stars from 2004 (Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling), homegrown graduates of his desired “player development machine” (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Jonathan Papelbon), and a savvy trade or two (Epstein was on hiatus when the Sox got Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett from the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez, and it worked out spectacularly).
That’s the kind of roster Bloom should aspire to build. Devers is the building block, and perhaps Casas, Yoshida, and Brayan Bello will join him as foundational pieces. But right now, that possibility feels like it’s a great distance away. The Red Sox have one true star and a farm system that isn’t quite ready to deliver all the help they need. In the meantime, they’ve got a bridge to sell you.
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