5 keys for the Red Sox to find success this season
They have the pieces in place to excel in many areas.
Following a long, head-scratching few months filled with doubt and ambiguity during the Major League Baseball lockout, the post-lockout portion of the offseason has come and gone extremely quickly.
It’s hard to believe the regular season is just about here, but the Red Sox are set to face the Yankees on Thursday, April 7, at 1:05 p.m. Experts believe Boston will have a solid season but will finish in the middle of the pack in a loaded division.
Here are five things that need to happen for the Red Sox to thrive.
They need to find stability in their rotation.
It’s no secret that their lineup is loaded but their pitching staff is a question mark entering the season.
The projected rotation is: Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill. It’s unclear when exactly Chris Sale will return, but it’s likely he will sometime in the next few months.
Eovaldi was very reliable last year (11-9, 3.75 ERA) and has blossomed into a true ace. Pivetta showed flashes last season but finished 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA over 155 innings. Houck was terrific and proved that wins and losses don’t tell the story by posting a 1-5 record and 3.52 ERA in 18 appearances. He’ll likely be counted on even more this year.
Wacha was 3-5 with a 5.05 ERA, and this is a chance to bounce back in a new environment. Hill, in his third stint with the Red Sox, was 1-4 with a 3.84 ERA last season. If Wacha and Hill can be steady, that would go a long way.
All five have had successful seasons over the course of their career. If everything falls into place, it has the potential to be a solid staff and possibly better than last year’s.
The bullpen needs to be firmed up.
Closer Matt Barnes struggled in the second half of the season and lost his job. He made it clear he believes he’s ready to reclaim it, so manager Alex Cora can go with Barnes or newcomer Jake Diekman, among others.
Garrett Whitlock, Matt Strahm, Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and Austin Davis are all in the mix as well. Adam Ottavino is gone, so the Red Sox will need someone to fill his role.
There are a few unknowns, including whether Barnes can bounce back, but the bullpen — much like the starters — has the potential to be strong. It may take some early-season tinkering to figure out what works best.
They’ll need to collectively improve their fielding.
The Red Sox committed the second-most errors (107) and finished second-to-last in fielding percentage (.981) last season.
Rafael Devers had 22, which was the most in the Majors among third basemen and fifth-most overall. He has improved significantly as a fielder throughout his career, raising his percentage from .906 as a rookie to .950 last year, so there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to ascend in that area.
Bringing back Jackie Bradley Jr. should certainly help the Red Sox in the outfield. Trevor Story has historically been a strong fielder, but it may take him some time to adjust to second base.
The lineup needs to be at least close to as good as advertised.
The projected lineup of Kiké Hernández (CF), Devers (3B), Xander Bogaerts (SS), J.D. Martinez (DH), Story (2B), Alex Verudgo (LF), Bobby Dalbec (1B), Christian Vázquez (C), and Bradley Jr. (RF) has the chance to be one of the best in baseball. Even if several hitters hypothetically underachieve, it will likely still be elite overall.
Boston finished first in doubles (330), second in slugging percentage (.449), third in average (.261), third in OPS (.777), and fifth in runs (829) last season and was one of the most dynamic offensive teams around.
Cora has a classic “good problem to have” as he mixes and matches and figures out where to slot each player in the lineup and in the field. Even if a couple of players have poor stretches here and there, there are plenty of others to help pick up the slack.
One key will be Bradley Jr., who hit just .163 with the Brewers last year but has had more success at Fenway Park in the past. Another is Dalbec, who hit .240 last season but displayed plenty of power by belting 25 home runs. If those two can get their averages up to around .250 or .260, that would go a long way.
Also of note: The Red Sox hit .281 at home last year and .241 on the road, though they did have more home runs on the road. Upping that road average to around .260, which is very doable, would help immensely.
They need to fare decently well in their division.
With 76 of their 162 games against American League East foes, the Red Sox will theoretically need to win more than half of those games to have a chance to win arguably the best division in baseball.
Last year, they finished 41-35 (.539) — 13-6 against the Orioles, 10-9 against the Yankees, 8-11 against the Rays, and 10-9 against the Blue Jays.
While the Orioles will almost certainly finish in the cellar again and be a relatively easy foe, the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays will be anything but. The Blue Jays and Yankees almost certainly got better, and the Rays were already very good.
The Red Sox have all the pieces in place to excel in the division and beyond.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com