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What early projections say about the 2022 Red Sox
FanGraphs' 2022 ZiPS projections have the Red Sox finishing fourth in the AL East again. But that didn't stop the 2021 team from exceeding expectations.
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Maybe, just maybe, MLB ownership will end its lockout of its players soon, and Boston fans will get to watch their Red Sox take the field and try to build on last year’s surprising success in 2022 without losing too many games. Fingers crossed.
When that happens, though, last year’s AL runners-up will once again face a hard road against the toughest division in baseball. Despite their shocking run in 2021, the early 2022 projections aren’t exactly hyping the Red Sox up.
FanGraphs’ annual projected ZiPS standings for the American League have Boston finishing fourth in the AL East division with an 83-79 record in 2022. The New York Yankees (lost to Red Sox in wild-card round) are predicted to win the division, followed by the Toronto Blue Jays (missed the playoffs in 2021) and Tampa Bay Rays (ousted by the Red Sox in the 2021 ALDS).
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According to FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, this isn’t as much a poor reflection on Boston as it is a referendum on the AL East’s immense strength.
“ZiPS doesn’t think [the Red Sox are] really just an 83-win team in 2022, but when the prospective schedule is actually simulated, they fall a bit short compared to the division’s top trio,” he explained. “The projection swings aren’t as wild as they were before the 2021 season, as the depth of the rotation has improved a bit…That said, the Sox are still short at least one outfielder and their short-term situation at first base is one of the weakest in baseball.”
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It’s worth noting, of course, ZiPS also projected the Red Sox to finish fourth last season, though with the casual caveat from Szymborski that Boston could defy those projections and make the playoffs (which they did).
One positive note: they have a budding superstar in Rafael Devers, whom FanGraphs suggests could have another massive season in 2022 (.283/.348/.888, 37 HRs, 116 RBI; 3.7 WAR).
Also, the pitching staff that held last year’s projections down so heavily is viewed more favorably this time around. ZiPS suggests the return of Chris Sale and the continued emergence of Nathan Eovaldi will give the Red Sox a much more formidable top of the rotation, while Nick Pivetta is also a candidate to improve significantly. Furthermore, the bullpen is slated to be much better after a solid 2021.
But big questions remain in the outfield and at first base.
Alex Verdugo (.292/.350/.790, 13 HRs, 57 RBIs; 1.9 WAR) and Kiké Hernández (.264/.339/.813, 22 HRs, 67 RBI; 2.8 WAR) should slot regularly into the first two outfield spots, but that still leaves the Red Sox needing to rely on Jackie Bradley Jr. or someone like Jarren Duran as well. Neither is projected to be much better than replacement level, and it’s unclear if post-lockout roster help is on the way.
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If the Red Sox are, in fact, a front-runner to land star Japanese star Seiya Suzuki, that could change the game for the team’s outfield prospects.
As for first base, Bobby Dalbec finished the season very strong but was essentially the worst first baseman in the entire league for much of last season. If he can’t carry his late-season offensive production over to 2022 (.228/.303/.762, 25 HRs, 71 RBI; 0.7 WAR), it could be Triston Casas Time before you know it. But counting on big production out of a rookie power hitter can be a hit-or-miss prospect.
Boston will also almost certainly lose Kyle Schwarber (.257/.360/.893; 30 HRs, 81 RBI; 2.5 WAR) with MLB now agreeing to adopt a universal designated hitter, putting his services in even higher demand. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez, the team’s current DH, is on the last year of his deal with the Sox and is projected to be good, not great in his age-34 season (.271/.342/.824; 25 HRs, 86 RBIS; 1.7 WAR).
Bottom line: it’s absolutely possible the Red Sox could get off a hot start and grab another surprise playoff spot just as they did last season. As it was then, though, it will require a whole lot of things going right and not a small amount of luck.
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