Key deadlines approach for J.D. Martinez and Eduardo Rodriguez’s futures in Boston

Just days after the end of the 2021 MLB season, some big decisions need to be made for the 2022 Red Sox season.

All-Star J.D. Martinez has to decide by 5 p.m. on Sunday whether he wants to opt-in or out of the final season of his five-year contract with the Red Sox. If Martinez opts in, he’ll make $19.375 million in 2022. Martinez had similar options following the 2019 and 2020 seasons and decided to opt-in both times.

However, this time might be different for the 34-year-old slugger. Boston Globe Red Sox reporter Alex Speier cited a few reasons why Martinez could opt-out, which include the value of his current deal, the potential implement of the universal DH starting next season, and Martinez’s age.

After struggling in the shortened 2020 season, Martinez bounced back this past season. He hit 28 home runs and knocked in 99 runs with a .286/.349/.518 slashline en route to getting another All-Star nod. Martinez’s numbers did dip a bit in the second half though. He had a .268/.320/.467 slashline with 10 homers and 37 RBIs over the regular season’s final 64 games.

Coming off a bounceback year though, one MLB insider expects Martinez to opt-out, which could leave the Red Sox in an interesting place for their payroll situation heading into next season.

“The Red Sox have a lot of money,” Ken Rosenthal said on “The Athletic Baseball Show” podcast earlier this week. “I don’t expect finances to be a problem this offseason. But they do have a number of outstanding contractual issues that they need to address. The first, I guess, would be the J.D. Martinez opt-out. That’s not their choice. That’s his. I expect him to opt-out. He’s got one year, over $19 million left on that deal. Could he beat that guaranteed (money) on the open market? Yes. Absolutely, he could.”

If Martinez opts out of his deal, the Red Sox’ 2022 payroll would sit just north of $155 million, according to Spotrac — and that could go down even more depending on other options.

With the potential money that’s freed up, the Red Sox could use it to retain Martinez or starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. One of those ways is through the qualifying offer, which the Red Sox also have to make by 5 p.m. on Sunday.

If Martinez opts out, it’d be a near guarantee that’d he’d decline the qualifying offer, too. The qualifying offer for 2022 will reportedly be worth $18.4 million over one year, which is less than what’d he’d make if he opted into the final year of his current deal. By offering Martinez the qualifying offer, the Red Sox would get draft pick compensation if Martinez signs somewhere else by a certain date.

Rodriguez could be more inclined though to sign the qualifying offer if the Red Sox offer it to him. After missing the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis following his bout with COVID-19, Rodriguez struggled for much of 2021. He went 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, the worst of his career.

With that in mind, Rodriguez could decide to re-sign on the qualifying offer to help restock his value and hit the free-agent market a year later. In 2019, Rodriguez went 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA, which led to him finishing in sixth place for the Cy Young vote that year. If Rodriguez, who’ll be 29 next April, puts up another season like that in 2022, he’d likely get a multi-year contract with good value in 2023.

There is a deadline that Rodriguez, and anyone who gets the qualifying offer, must accept it by, which is Nov. 17. Rodriguez became a free agent on Wednesday morning.

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