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After a one-run loss, a question: What makes these Red Sox so good in close games?
Boston is 17-9 (.654) in one-run games.
Most everything felt normal about Wednesday’s Red Sox getaway game against the Angels. Right up until they failed to win it.
LA taking a 2-0 lead thanks largely to bloop singles certainly did. Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the year’s least lucky pitchers, his expected ERA based on the amount and quality of contact he’s given up this year (3.40) more than two runs better than his actual ERA (5.52).
“A grinder,” he described his completed first half to reporters on Wednesday. “Every start, just go out there and grind, grind, grind.”
Watching Boston tie the game via their own lucky breaks certainly fits the profile of a team who’s won more than half their games (28 of 54) coming from behind. As did the way they hung around after the Angels went back-to-back in their half of the fifth, twice pulling back within one and right there until Raisel Iglesias blew through them in the ninth.
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“We got burned by the home runs,” manager Alex Cora told reporters, later noting that sixth-inning double play that wasn’t same as you probably did.
And thus a West Coast trip the Sox came within sight of sweeping ended 3-3, their series in Anaheim only not an Angels sweep thanks to the grace of the baseball gods. Shohei Ohtani, who beat them both ways on Tuesday and cracked his 32nd home run on Wednesday, hit a pedestrian Adam Ottavino slider more than good enough to tie Monday’s game.
“It kind of worked out,” Ottavino told reporters after a shifted Christian Arroyo grabbed it and recorded the final out.
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Put that on the season DVDs, already.
Now looking back at the Fourth of July, we’re still trying to figure out how we got here. The Red Sox are 54-34, meaning they could play a .500 second half and probably still cruise into October.
The hows are myriad, but the narrative thread is clear: All those comebacks. Boston is 17-9 (.654) in one-run games and 27-15 (.643) in one- or two-run affairs.
The latter mark is best in the majors, and hints at the overperformance they’ve gotten out of their bullpen. Matt Barnes is an All-Star, and Ottavino, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Garrett Whitlock all have sub-3.00 ERAs. It also hints at Cora’s influence, the competitive fire that burned too bright in Houston still there following his year-long exile from the sport that’s defined his life.
“Keeps it loose, keeps it fun, but also knows how to get on the guys and spark us,” Alex Verdugo told The Athletic last month, describing Cora’s managerial style. “Just kind of get that fire back, like, ‘Hey, we’ve been lackadaisical, let’s turn it back on. It starts from inning 1, not the sixth inning.’ ”
But let’s not go overboard: Barely .500 Seattle (19-8) has a better one-run record than the playoff-tracking Astros (10-8), Dodgers (11-16), White Sox (10-11), Padres (12-13), and Rays (11-14). They’re 10-1 in extra innings less because of better execution than the bounce of a few balls.
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Such an oddball is, frankly, normal. The 2019 Giants won just 77 games, but more than 70 percent (38-16) of their one-run decisions. The 2015 Blue Jays made the ALCS with the worst one-run record in MLB. The 2007 Red Sox won 96 going 22-28 in them, then won their only two of the playoffs to sweep the World Series.
In and of itself, all the close victories don’t make the 2021 Red Sox special. Of their 17 one-run wins, three came as rescues of Matt Barnes blown saves last month, and a fourth was a four-run game against Seattle in April that Barnes turned into a one-run affair.
Another three came just on this West Coast swing: Monday against the Angels, plus Kiké Hernández’s double play on Friday and Nick Pivetta’s latest gem on Sunday. (Pivetta has started six of their one-run wins and two of the losses, including his 100-pitch no-hitter in Tampa.)
However, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted when he sniffed around some underlying Red Sox stats, banked wins are banked no matter how they got there. And we’ve heard the confidence blasting from these Red Sox with every close game they pull out. They’ve earned that, up and down the lineup card.
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Remember the three comebacks against the Rays on April 6? The game-saving Verdugo performance in Minnesota? Bobby Dalbec’s saving blast when the Angels were in Boston? Arroyo’s run of clutch home runs?
Never mind J.D. Martinez in Dunedin, Xander Bogaerts coming through twice at Yankee Stadium, or a season-worth of big hits from Rafael Devers, whose 1.083 OPS with runners in scoring position trails only Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ohtani, and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez in the AL. (Martinez, for the record, is fifth at 1.058.)
They believe losing games like Wednesday’s is the exception. They believe they’ll get more of the breaks than they won’t. And they believe Chris Sale is coming to supplement a pitching staff that’s outperformed just about every expectation.
Belief is a hard thing to quantify, but after a year where it lacked in just about every way, it can’t be overstated. And it can’t be dismissed.
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