Boston Red Sox

Why Red Sox fans should expect good things from Alex Verdugo in 2021

Fangraphs's ZiPS projections suggest Verdugo should have a solid second season with the Red Sox.

Red Sox Alex Verdugo
Alex Verdugo watches a hit against the Toronto Blue Jays last September. Winslow Townson/AP

By Khari Thompson

2 minutes to read

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Boston Red Sox fans have had plenty of outfield-related heartbreak to work through the past two years, first when the organization traded former MVP Mookie Betts and then when fan-favorite Jackie Bradley Jr. departed in free agency to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Fortunately, young outfielder Alex Verdugo, who came over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the blockbuster Betts trade, has given Red Sox fans reasons to believe the future remains bright.

Verdugo impressed in a small 53-game sample size last year, slashing .308/.367/.844 with six home runs and 15 RBI. His contact-heavy hitting style played well in his first year with Boston; Statcast ranked him among the league’s best in putting the bat on the ball with each swing (86th percentile in “whiff percentage”), and he posted an excellent .371 average on batted balls in play (BABIP).

Early predictions suggest Verdugo should pick up right where he left off during what should be a full 2021 slate of games.

Fangraphs’s 2021 ZiPS projections have Verdugo putting up a slash line of .291/.350/.80, hitting 14 home runs, and knocking in 51 runs in 140 games. While some of his averages, as well as his BABIP (.328), are expected to drop a bit over the course of a complete season, ZiPS expects his walk-to-strikeout ratio to improve (.49 BB/K in 2021 vs. .38 last year).

Those numbers would make for a very respectable second season for the 24-year-old, especially if he plays most of his time in center field as opposed to a corner outfield spot that typically belongs to players who hit with more power than Verdugo is expected to.

That said, his trend of hitting a greater number of fly balls over the last two seasons than he did early in his career could potentially lead to a few more home runs than predicted.

On top of his contributions at that plate, Verdugo is also expected to provide above-average defense at whichever outfield spot he plays.

Statcast’s measurements from last year showed Verdugo was elite at tracking the ball off the bat (89th percentile in outfield jumps) and also produced slightly more outs above average than his peers (68th percentile). He also proved it’s not wise to test him on the basepaths, tying for the MLB lead in outfield assists with seven.

All in all, ZiPS projects Verdugo to finish the 2021 season with a wins-above-replacement (WAR) value of 2.1. That would make him a top-30 outfielder in a season where he’ll turn just 25 years old, suggesting his best baseball is yet to come. 

Thankfully for the Red Sox, Verdugo also figures to be pretty good in 2021.

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