What MLB experts are saying about the Red Sox at the trade deadline
The MLB trade deadline is Monday, Aug.31.
With the MLB trade deadline scheduled for Monday, Aug. 31 uncertainty lingers in the air for the Boston Red Sox.
As the team with the worst record in the AL East, 10-21, the Sox are likely looking toward future, rather than immediate, success. To that end, they made a move last Friday, trading pitchers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree (during the game) to the Philadelphia Phillies for right-handers Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold.
The Red Sox’ front office has been in discussions with other clubs, according to team president Sam Kennedy. Appearing on WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” two weeks ago, Kennedy also reveled that when it comes to transactions, no one is “untouchable”:
“We’d never label anyone untouchable,” Kennedy said. “Just given the fact that sometimes to re-tool and restructure for the future, you do have to sometimes make difficult decisions, as you saw with the Mookie [Betts] transaction. I don’t think anybody would be untouchable as it were, but there are certainly guys who have grown up in the system that we’d like to keep with the Sox for a long, long time.”
Last week, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated those sentiments, while adding that he thinks Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers could stick around.
“That’s simple. Those guys are core players for us,” Bloom said according to Mass Live’s Christopher Smith.“They’re incredibly important to our future just as they’ve been important here for a while. I think philosophically I don’t like to think in terms of absolute no’s, but those guys are key players for us. We are very hopeful that they are going to be part of our next championship.”
However, given the team’s track record of trading superstars (i.e Betts), anything could happen. One name that’s been thrown out there is catcher Christian Vazquez, who said on Tuesday that he wants to ‘retire’ with the team.
Will the Red Sox deal Christian Vazquez before the trade deadline? Determining his value is … complicated https://t.co/G4kJNDrhiE
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) August 26, 2020
Another is Bogaerts, as noted by the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal — has a six-year, $120 million contract that comes with a catch: a no-trade clause after seven years in the majors that starts Sept.6.
“Bogaerts’ time in Boston might be limited,” Rosenthal wrote. “His deal allows him to opt out after ’22, an option he very well might pursue, considering that 2021-22 free agents Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez and Trevor Story already would have reset the market for shortstops… A trade before Aug. 31 would be difficult to pull off for a variety of reasons. But the Sox’s season is a train wreck, and Bogaerts is not certain to be in Boston long term.”
On the other hand, some think that trading Bogaerts, Devers or Verdugo should not be the move.
“Trading any of these players would represent another, more deliberate step down the path Boston started to take last offseason,” wrote the Ringer’s Issac Levy-Rubinett.
Here’s what other experts are predicting the Sox will do.
Jeff Passan, ESPN: “The Red Sox should shop everyone on their roster not named Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. Not a single player who throws a pitch for the Red Sox this season beyond Darwinzon Hernandez will be with Boston beyond 2022. With a mediocre farm system and player development more or less in neutral this season, accelerating the Red Sox’s rebuild won’t be easy.
“So whether it’s now with free agents-to-be Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Pillar or this winter with Christian Vazquez and Martin Perez (who has the fourth-lowest average exit velocity among starters this season), move ’em. If you can get something for J.D. Martinez, who has another opt-out clause this winter, do it.”
Alex Speier, Boston Globe: “A ticket out of Boston would come with the benefit of relocation into pennant races. But that doesn’t mean that the possibility is a welcome one — particularly for catcher Christian Vazquez, the longest-tenured member of the Red Sox organization among active players…
“Indeed, the call belongs to chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox front office. That group confronts with Vazquez the same question that it faces with virtually every member of the roster: Is he part of the team’s foundation or someone whose greatest impact would come from whatever player or players he might bring in return? The answer is complicated.”
Kevin Laird, WEEI: “When you’re in the bottom of a hole, you’ve got to look for help – the right help – to get out. Bogaerts with a lone shovel won’t dig your way to World Series contention in 2021 or ‘22…Face reality. This current Sox mess is Exxon Valdez oil spill bad. 2022 is the goal for the cleanup, and they need help from one ace or two above-average mound erasers, the kind you can only get back now for a trade of quality talent like Bogaerts.”
Chris Cotillo, Mass Live: “It’ll be a surprise if [Matt] Barnes and [Kevin] Pillar are on the team come Monday. Moreland will likely draw a ton of interest. Bradley Jr.‘s market is less certain but the Red Sox are surely going to be shopping him hard…
“There are a collection of unheralded Red Sox trade candidates who could actually fetch something on the open market but won’t grab headlines. Four are relievers — Brasier, Brice, Osich and Valdez — while Plawecki could entice teams looking for a backup catcher…
“Perhaps the two most difficult decisions involve Martinez and Perez, who both have contracts that complicate things. If both were pure rentals, they’d be easy trade candidates…
“After the obvious trade candidates come a handful of players who don’t profile as such but could definitely be moved. The two most intriguing are Benintendi and Vazquez, who have come up in rumors in recent days.”
R.J Anderson, CBS Sports: “A pair of outfielders, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Pillar, are thought to be the likeliest Red Sox to be dealt before September hits, according to what league sources have told CBS Sports…
“Whereas the Red Sox aren’t platooning Bradley Jr. as aggressively, they’ve taken the inverse approach with Pillar. He’s facing a greater percentage of left-handers than usual, and that’s working out just fine for him…He probably won’t keep up that pace, based on his career numbers (.280/.314/.459), but he ought to make for a fine short-side platoon option for someone.”
Matt Collins, SB Nation’s Over the Monster: “Bloom still doesn’t really know what’s been going on with Rays prospects over the last few months, but he is at least more familiar with their personalities…So, that makes the matchup interesting, but it also only works if the Red Sox have anything the Rays would want. If we were to look at a big-time deal, that would come to Christian Vázquez. I’ll be clear that I don’t think the Red Sox would be smart to deal their catcher, but if that is indeed on the table the Rays are an obvious fit.
“Tampa Bay has a Rubik’s Cube of a lineup with platoons up and down, but the one place where they don’t really have a great strategy is behind the plate.”
John Tomase, NBC Sports Boston: “That said, there’s still a lot to like if you’re a contender in need of starting catching, and there just happens to be a perfect match on the West Coast in the city suddenly known as Slam Diego [the Padres]…If the Padres want to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, they’re likely to prioritize a catching upgrade, and Vazquez would certainly qualify.
“What might the Red Sox receive in return? The obvious name to consider is catcher Luis Campusano, MLB.com’s 54th-ranked overall prospect, though the Padres are loaded across the board…Campusano might not help the Red Sox for three or four years, but Bloom has stressed that his priority is making the proper long-term moves to return to the team to sustained contention.”
Tom Caron, Sun Journal: “[Matt] Barnes is now the senior member of the pitching staff, and could well be traded before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. That can basically be said about anyone. That’s what happens when a team misses the playoffs with the highest payroll in the game and follows that up with the worst record in the American League the following year. Shortened season or no, that won’t stand in Boston…
“If Bloom is going to add more talent to the team’s future, he’s going to think about trading some of the team’s top players. Which means players are looking at one another wondering if they could be part of the next deal.”
Peter Abraham, Boston Globe: “It will be a surprise if Kevin Pillar remains a member of the Red Sox by [Monday]. Pillar has hit .278 with a .793 OPS in 25 games for the Red Sox and played outstanding defense in the outfield, particularly right field…
“Other teams see that, too. Plus picking up the 31-year-old veteran would cost only $600,000 for September.”
Bob Nightengale, USA Today: “The Boston Red Sox have let everyone know that there are no untouchables, meaning that center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. should be on the move, but unlikely shortstop Xander Bogaerts…
“The Phillies-Red Sox trade should be the model for most of the moves made this final week, dealing major leaguers for major leaguers, mixing in cash with the Red Sox covering $815,000 of their salaries, and having at least one player (Workman) in the final year of his contract.
“I can’t see a big trade, I can’t,’’ one AL GM said on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly. “There’s just too much risk. Too much uncertainty with everyone still looking to save money. Nobody knows the monetary aspect of next year. What will the payroll be in the future? Will we have fans next year?”
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