How will the Red Sox fare this season? Experts weigh in.
The Red Sox will take on the Orioles on Opening Day on Friday.
As the Red Sox prepare to take on the Baltimore Orioles on Friday for Opening Day, MLB experts are curious of how the team will perform this season given all of the drama and departures of key players and staff. From the off-season controversy that resulted in the departure of manager Alex Cora, to a season-ending injury for ace Chris Sales, the trade of former MVP Mookie Betts to the Dodgers, and most recently, Eduardo Rodriquez’s diagnosis of COVID-19.
To make matters even more unpredictable, the MLB season’s 162-game schedule has been shortened to just 60-games due to COVID-19. Some experts think that could work in the Red Sox’ favor, such as NESN’s Ricky Doyle:
“All of this unpredictability, for better or worse, stands to benefit teams — like the Red Sox — not considered among MLB’s elite, yet probably fringe playoff contenders based on preseason projections.,” Doyle wrote. “Because whereas before it was difficult to find an avenue to success for some organizations, it’s now easier based on the wild, wide-open field in which they’ll be operating.”
On the other hand, The Boston Globe‘s Peter Abraham thinks that their weak rotation could be fully exposed due to the shortened schedule.
“They could score the most runs in the league — and give up just as many, if not more,” Abraham wrote. ” A full season always exposes a weak rotation, but in this case a short season will do the same.”
Here’s how experts predict the team will finish this season:
Peter Abraham, The Boston Globe: “This is a season where there could be an out-of-the-box MVP or Cy Young Award winner. Maybe somebody will hit .400 or win the first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. The 10 playoffs teams last season averaged 98 victories — a .605 winning percentage. By that standard, 36 wins would be enough to get a playoff spot this season.
“That means a team can’t afford more than 24 or 25 losses and expect to play in October. Every game is significant now. Starting 5-10 would mean having to play at a .688 clip the rest of the way to catch up. That’s better than the 2018 Red Sox. From a statistical standpoint, none of it will be legitimate. But the World Series champion will very much be authentic, even more so than usual.
“The group of players that sticks together for four months and wins a championship will have overcome plenty and learned to succeed in a baseball environment unlike anything before.”
“The Red Sox’s flaws haven’t been eradicated, nor have their opponents’ strengths. One even could argue Boston is at a disadvantage — relative to other borderline postseason contenders — by having to play its entire schedule against teams from the American League East and National League East, two divisions stocked with both World Series hopefuls and overall depth.
“But the Red Sox boast a potentially elite trait — their offense — that’s capable of carrying them for a stretch, particularly in the summer months. The question is whether it’ll be enough to mask their other deficiencies, at least long enough for Boston to wiggle its way into the postseason.”
Sam Miller, Dave Schoenfield, Bradford Dolittle at ESPN:
“The Yankees and Rays run away from the Red Sox in the AL East, but MVP-level seasons from J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers are supported by strong collective work from the Boston bullpen as the BoSox hover a few games over .500 and challenge for a playoff slot.” – Dolittle
“Is their rotation good enough to compete? The Red Sox have lost Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello from last year’s rotation — that’s nearly half their starts, not that the trio was all that great (a combined 27-28). Eduardo Rodriguez missed the start of summer camp with the coronavirus and might not be ready for the start of the season. Collin McHugh has opted out of the season with elbow issues. That leaves the Red Sox counting on the likes of Martin Perez and Ryan Weber.” – Schoenfield
“Work up in the strike zone. The average Red Sox fastball is the highest in baseball, slightly higher than those of the Dodgers and Rays. High fastballs have become a popular tactic for countering hitters’ uppercut swings in the launch angle era, and 2019 was the fourth year in a row the Red Sox threw the league’s highest fastballs. Reliever Matt Barnes’ fastball was second highest among all pitchers in baseball.” — Miller
Ian Browne, MLB.com: “The Red Sox need to hit — a lot. They have the talent to do it. Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez should be a dangerous 1-2 duo at the top of the order. The middle will be filled by Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, who were both lethal last season. That top four could rival just about any team if they all hit to their capabilities.
“There are several other solid hitters at Roenicke’s disposal, including Christian Vázquez and Mitch Moreland. Jackie Bradley Jr. is streaky but a force when he’s on the right kind of streak. The Sox should also have some good bats off the bench, including Kevin Pillar and Michael Chavis.”
Joel Sherman, New York Post: “The Red Sox traded Betts and David Price to the Dodgers, and with ace Chris Sale lost after Tommy John surgery, Boston’s playoff chances dwindled further. If MLB had gotten its way, seven teams per league would be in the 2020 playoffs. But with just the familiar five, Boston would have to finish ahead of at least the Rays or Yankees to have a postseason chance. If the Sox decide after a few weeks they are not likely to do better than third in the AL East, they could become prime traders.
“J.D. Martinez has two years at $38.75 million left after this year. Do NL teams think the DH is in play for 2021-22 as well to make the field for Martinez’s services larger? How much would Boston pay down on Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34 million)? Jackie Bradley Jr. is a free agent after this season.”
Zachary D. Rymer, Bleacher Report: “After trading Mookie Betts and David Price and losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, the Boston Red Sox could be in for a rough season. If things go really south, they might look to move star slugger J.D. Martinez and the remainder of his $110 million contract.”
Ben Lindbergh and Michael Baumann, The Ringer: “I almost went with the Red Sox — just peep that pitching staff, which is running neck and neck with the Angels’, Rockies’, and Pirates’ in projected WAR—but a team that finished third last year and subsequently lost its best hitter to a much-maligned trade and its best pitcher to Tommy John surgery isn’t starting this season with great expectations.” – Lindbergh.
“Guess what’s probably going to happen when you trade Mookie Betts? That’s right, you’re probably going to flop.” – Baumann
Will Leitch, MLB.com: “This is the year Jackie Bradley Jr. actually starts hitting
To be fair, I’ve been predicting this for several years now, and he’s already 30. But he was smoking the ball in Spring Training, and he has reportedly done the same at Summer Camp. I’m going to give him one more year to make me look smart.”
Chad Finn, Boston.com: “These 2020 Red Sox cannot be a juggernaut. I know, we’ve had teams that have been a pleasant, even shocking, surprise in the past, most notably the 2013 World Series champs, who weren’t supposed to be much after a last-place finish in ’12. But it’s hard to see a way in which this team can overcome its lack of competent starting pitching, even if the bullpen is deep and some relievers will be worked (perhaps even as openers) so often that we’ll be comparing them to 1977 Bill Campbell, 1978 Bob Stanley, and other relief workhorses of the past.
“The best-case scenario for this team is that its best hitters — Bogaerts, Martinez, Devers, and even Benintendi — are at their best immediately, just as they have been through the first 60 games of the past couple of seasons. That’s not too much to ask. Moreland has been a good early-season hitter, and an unexpected fast start from someone like Jackie Bradley Jr. would also greatly aid the cause. This team is going to have to win a lot of 8-6 and 9-7 games.”
“SportsLine has the Red Sox as an 33-win team at the moment. With the Blue Jays beginning their breakout and some things going wrong for the Red Sox, a fourth place finish is very possible. When the Red Sox are bad, they tend to be very bad (three last place finishes from 2012-15). Toronto breaks out, Boston breaks down, and the Blue Jays earn a third place finish in 2020.”
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