What experts are saying about the Red Sox’ chances to repeat
Not a lot of love for the Sox.
The Red Sox won 108 games in 2018. They won the World Series. Mookie Betts won American League MVP, AL batting title, a Gold Glove award, and a Silver Slugger. Jackie Bradley Jr. won a Gold Glove. J.D. Martinez won two Silver Sluggers.
But that’s enough about last season. The Red Sox start over in 2019 hoping to accomplish a rare repeat World Series victory.
The Sox have not won back-to-back World Series titles since 1915-1916. No major league team has completed a repeat since the Yankees won three championships in a row between 1998-2000. Whispers of a “World Series hangover” can follow the last season’s champions throughout the year.
Here is a roundup of what experts around the country say to expect from the Red Sox in 2019:
Boston Globe staff 2019 baseball season predictions: The Globe staff split evenly on whether the Red Sox or Yankees would win the AL East. A World Series repeat seemed more contentious – only two predict the Red Sox will win again in 2019. (Both said they will meet the Cubs, for what it’s worth.)
Dan Shaughnessy: AL East – Yankees. World Series – Astros. Red Sox make ALCS.
Tara Sullivan: AL East – Red Sox. World Series – Astros. Red Sox make ALCS.
Christopher L. Gasper: AL East – Yankees. World Series – Indians. Red Sox lose the AL wild-card game to the Twins.
Peter Abraham: AL East – Yankees. World Series – Red Sox over Cubs.
Alex Speier: AL East – Red Sox, World Series – Nationals. Red Sox lose in ALDS.
Chad Finn: AL East – Red Sox, World Series – Red Sox over Cubs.
ESPN baseball staff 2019 MLB predictions: “Even after a 108-win season, the Red Sox still have untapped upside, starting with Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi.”
ESPN polled 31 of its baseball staffers on their picks to win each division, each league’s wild cards, and the World Series champion. Sixteen chose the Yankees to win the AL East, while 14 chose the Red Sox (one vote went to the Rays). The Red Sox earned the most votes (17) to enter the playoffs as one of the AL’s wild-card teams and were picked third to win the American League pennant behind the Astros and Yankees. Only three of 31 voters picked the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champions; the Astros earned the most (14) votes.
The Red Sox were the top team in ESPN’s MLB Opening Day power rankings, with a projected 2019 record of 98-64 and World Series odds of 7-1.
MLB.com’s expert 2019 season predictions: Astros will win the World Series.
MLB.com writer Manny Randhawa wrote that over 50 experts between the website and MLB Network weighed in to decide what team will win each division, the playoff picture, and the World Series.
The Astros received 27 votes to win the AL pennant, while the Yankees received 20, and the Red Sox 5. The vote for AL East champion was not specifically broken down, but Randhawa wrote the Yankees received twice as many votes as the Red Sox.
The Astros were voted most likely to win the 2019 World Series.
Sports Illustrated 2019 MLB season preview: “If this were a seven-inning game, they’d win it again, but they have to figure out the eighth and ninth innings.”
SI tasked nine writers with voting their Opening Day predictions. Only two picked the Red Sox to win the AL East, but seven picked the Sox to enter the playoffs via the wild card. The Red Sox received one vote to win the AL pennant and none to repeat as World Series champions. Their projected record? 96-66, second in the AL.
USA Today 2019 MLB season preview: Nobody on USA Today’s seven-person panel picked the Red Sox to win the World Series again. One writer picked the Sox to win the AL pennant, and two picked them to win the AL East.
Tara Sullivan, The Boston Globe: “It’s on to 2019, boys, where last year’s 108 regular-season wins, last year’s MVP performance by Mookie Betts, last year’s trump-card playoff pitching heroics of David Price, last year’s unlikely emergence of World Series MVP Steve Pearce, they’re all washed away. Time to start again.”
Sullivan compared problems that plagued the 1999 Yankees during their World Series defense to those which could haunt the Red Sox this season.
In 1998, the Yankees won 114 regular season games and rolled through the playoffs largely untested. The Bronx Bombers swept two of three playoff series, including the World Series against the Padres, and beat the Indians in the ALCS in six games.
The 2018 Red Sox were the MLB’s best team throughout the regular season. 108 wins broke a record for most in Sox history dating back to 1912. Alex Cora’s squad lost only three total games in the entire playoff run.
In 1999, the Yankees struggled at times, winning 98 games compared to 114 the year before with a similar roster.
Dan Shaughnessy, The Boston Globe: “It’s been 100 years since the Sox managed to appear in back-to-back World Series… Since then, The Year After has not been a friend to Boston baseball.”
Shaughnessy listed the results of the last three World Series-defense seasons in Red Sox history:
- 2005: The Sox won 95 games but lacked the pitching depth to compete in the playoffs. The White Sox swept them in the ALDS.
- 2008: Terry Francona’ team won 95 games again and went seven games with the Rays in the ALCS, but lost a narrow final game 3-1.
- 2014: Everything went wrong the season after the 2013 World Series victory and the Red Sox went from first to worst with a 71-91 record, 25 games out of first place.
: “It’s one thing to shut down opponents over 14 games and 63 innings with Kelly, an admittedly shaky and potentially declining Kimbrel, and assists from starting pitchers, and another to do it down two trusted arms for six months or more.”
Lindbergh noted the Red Sox bullpen’s lack of experience in closing games entering 2019. Since 1988, the average team’s bullpen in April owned a combined 185.5 career saves. Red Sox relief pitchers own 15 total career saves to their names on Opening Day. The caveat to potential bullpen worries, though, is Lindbergh’s assertion that the era of the dedicated closer is, well, closing.
“Only 10 pitchers accumulated at least 30 saves, the fewest in a non-strike season since 10 reached that threshold in 1990 when there were only 26 teams,” Lindbergh wrote. “Only 18 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves, the fewest since 1991. But 44 pitchers amassed at least 10 saves, and 60 made it to five, both of which were the highest totals in this sample of seasons.”
