Nine thoughts on the Red Sox after their interesting series in Houston
Playing nine innings while hoping we’re not already beyond the beginning of the end for Dustin Pedroia . . .
1. I’m not big on attempting to identify statement games in a baseball season in real time – especially early in the season, when so much of the story remains unwritten. The ultimate perceived in-season pivotal moment in recent Red Sox lore has to be the Red Sox’ rally to beat Mariano Rivera and the Yankees on July 24, 2004 – better known as the day when Jason Varitek introduced Alex Rodriguez to the many savory flavors of a catcher’s mitt. That game is remembered as a crucial one in that magical season, a win foreshadowing an even greater comeback to come in October. In a team-unity sense, it probably did matter. But the reality? The win pulled the Red Sox to within 8.5 games of first place, and they went just 5-5 in their next 10 games. If it was pivotal, it sure took a while to complete the turnaround.
2. That’s my way of saying I don’t get the inclination to ascribe any grand meaning to the Red Sox’ wins over the Astros Saturday and Sunday, which earned a four-game split with the world champs. I get that there’s the potential of a real rivalry here, given that the Astros bounced the Red Sox from the postseason last year, then basically turned the Fenway infield into their own outdoor bar. I suppose it’s encouraging to realize that the Red Sox indeed can play with the Astros, and didn’t back down after losing the first two games of the series. But shouldn’t we have expected the Red Sox to hold their own anyway? We’re in June, and the Red Sox’ loss count is still in the teens (19). We already knew they were pretty damned good. There’s a long way to go before we can quantify how good.
3. Love the plan to steal a little extra rest for the rotation by giving Steven Wright a start Tuesday after Monday’s off-day. Hopefully it will most benefit ace Chris Sale, who has given up 10 runs in his last 10.3 innings to see his ERA rise from 2.17 to 3.00. Perhaps it will contribute in some small way to getting Drew Pomeranz going, too. Pomeranz has been brutal so far (6.81 ERA), which is making it easy to forget just how good he was last year, when he basically put up Jon Lester numbers (17-6, 3.32 ERA). I get the sense that I’m in a distinct minority of Pomeranz believers, but last season alone makes the 2016 trade with the Padres a good one. Anderson Espinoza has a scar on his elbow and hasn’t had an ERA below 4 in high Single A yet. I doubt he’s ever as good as Pomeranz was last year.
4. Alex Cora is an upgrade on John Farrell in pretty much every way possible. The Red Sox seem more analytically advanced, accountable, tactically alert (though Cora has endured a few strategic hiccups), and aware of the big picture under the new manager. But there remains one glaring area where they have not improved: baserunning. Xander Bogaerts is usually one of their savvier navigators of the bases, but that’s damning with faint praise. It’s like being a kamikaze pilot with the best survival instinct. Bogaerts’s fungo-brained attempt to make third on a fly ball in the third inning Sunday night was one of the more egregious decisions in recent seasons.
5. Bogaerts’s blunder was the 24th time the Red Sox have made an out on the bases this year, not including pickoffs or failed steal attempts. Only the Blue Jays and Rays have run into more outs (25). And I’m not sure it can be chalked up to the cost of being aggressive – the Red Sox have the second-lowest extra-bases-taken percentage in the majors (33 percent), meaning they’ve taken more than one base on a single or more than two on a double just 33 percent of the time. Only the Padres (32 percent) are lower, and they’re generally not used to having baserunners.
6. Andrew Benintendi, who launched a no-doubter home run in both Red Sox wins against the Astros, has been on fire lately. But I had no idea his OPS was over .900 until I was poking around on baseball-reference.com Monday morning and noticed he’s up to .918. That’s remarkable considering he owned a disappointing .712 OPS and was slashing .239/.336/.376 on May 4, or a month ago Monday. In 27 games and 124 plate appearances since then, Benintendi has hit 8 of his 9 home runs, with a .355/.427/.705 slash line. He’s driven in 26 runs in that span, giving him 41, second only to J.D. Martinez among Red Sox. Benintendi is now on pace for 26 homers, 26 steals, 185 hits, and 118 RBIs. Now that’s how you turn around a slow start.
7. Meanwhile, as you may have heard, Hanley Ramirez’s promised quest for a 30-30 season has taken an unexpected detour, one that will even bring him to a new destination. Ramirez had six homers and four stolen bases when the Red Sox designated him for assignment May 25. Of course, that goal for Ramirez was something less than a realistic one. He hasn’t stolen 30 bases in a season since he swiped 32 with the 2010 Marlins. He hasn’t reached 20 steals since 2012, when he stole 21 at age 28. He has changed just a bit physically since he stole 51 in back to back seasons for the 2006-07 Marlins. Haven’t we all.
8. Maybe a 15-10 season from Ramirez is more reasonable at this point, no matter where he ends up. Even if he goes to a relative contender like the Angels, I don’t believe he’s a ghost capable of haunting the Red Sox. The only other time he has changed teams in-season – in 2012, when he went from the Marlins to the Dodgers for the underwhelming package of Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough – he was decent but nothing more after the deal, hitting .271 with a .774 OPS and 10 homers in 64 games. There is next to no 2008-Manny-in-LA potential here.
9. Dan Duquette has confirmed the Orioles have interest in Ramirez, and that move would be peak Duquette and peak Orioles all at once. A somewhat faded 30-something former star that has no defensive value and comes cheap after a contender decided he wasn’t going to help the cause much longer and dumped him before he became a problem? Sign him up! That might as well be called the modern Oriole Way. It’s a wonder Duquette never made Jose Offerman an Oriole.
