Which Red Sox will exceed their stat projections this season?
A half-dozen or so years ago I bought a $1 scratch ticket on a whim, won $2, and immediately announced my retirement from the lottery life. Not many get out of the game ahead, I figured. I think I spent the jackpot on a Nutty Bar.
I’ve stuck to the vow, too, though when Powerball reaches nine figures I’m occasionally tempted to play the numbers of the ’86 Celtics starting five (minus Robert Parish, since you can’t play double zero – I looked it up) plus Bill Walton and Scott Wedman. That cannot be an original thought around here. If those numbers hit, the winnings would probably have to be split 33 ways.
You can assume I’ve never been much for gambling either. I generally prefer to not punt my money away, and while I believe I’d be a competent sports better, I’m self-aware enough to know I’m probably wrong.
But I’ll admit to fascination when the online betting site Bovada periodically sends around odds on various sports things to media folks, such as the long list of Major League Baseball over/unders for the 2018 season that it made available a few days ago.
Much of that fascination has to do with their individual over/unders for assorted 2018 Red Sox. Here are few that caught my attention, if not my wallet:
Xander Bogaerts
Home runs
: 16.5
Batting average: .285
I’m a big believer that the Red Sox’ 25-year-old shortstop is going to bounce back big-time this season, now that he’s healthy and playing for a manager who does not come across like an especially boring cinderblock in personal interactions.
But I’m just not sure how that bounce-back will quantify itself statistically. Will Bogaerts submit a similar season to his 2015, when he won his first Silver Slugger and finished second to Miguel Cabrera in the American League batting race (.320) but hit just 7 homers?
Or will it closely mirror his ’16 season, when he won his second Silver Slugger, a slight dip in batting average (.294) offset by an increase in power (career-high 21 homers)?
Maybe there’s some insight to be found in Bogaerts’s first half last season. When he was hit on the hand July 6 on a pitch by the Rays’ Jacob Faria, he was slashing .308/.363/.455 with 6 homers, 20 doubles, and 41 RBIs though 80 games.
That math isn’t difficult – double those numbers and you basically have a full season, and a pretty good one at that: .308/.363/.455 with 12 homers, 40 doubles, and 82 RBIs is a fine season, albeit one with not as much home run potency as we might have expected. Instead, Bogaerts played through the injury, and he was a modern-day Steve Jeltz the rest of the way, with a .340 slugging percentage and .661 OPS over the season’s final 68 games.
He’s not winning a third Silver Slugger this year even if he is healthy, since Houston’s Carlos Correa is turning into a likable version of A-Rod. But he will spend the season reminding us of how good he can be when his body and mind are right. I’m going over on the batting average, and barely under on the home runs.
Andrew Benintendi
Batting average
: .285
Home runs: 19.5
RBIs: 89.5
You could swear to me Benintendi is going to achieve all sorts of major feats this season and I would not hesitate to believe you.
The American League batting champ? That Fred Lynn-esque lefty swing suggests it’s practically inevitable.
A 25-homer/25-stolen base season? Hey, why not 30/30?
Contention for the most valuable player in the American League whose last name is not a species of freshwater fish? Well, that’s more Mookie Betts’s territory, but it’s not out of the question.
Bottom line: Benintendi’s seemingly inevitable rise to genuine stardom in his second full season is one of the more unheralded storylines of the spring. Take the over, on all of it.
Rafael Devers
Batting average
: .280
Home runs: 23.5
RBIs: 80.5
Per baseball-reference.com’s indispensable Play Index, there have been five third basemen in MLB history who in their age-21 season have hit at least .275 with 20 or more homers and 75 or more RBIs. Those third basemen are:
Ken Keltner, 1938 Cleveland Indians: .276/26/113
Eddie Mathews, 1953 Milwaukee Braves: .302/47/135
Ron Santo, 1961 Chicago Cubs: .284/23/83
Adrian Beltre, 2000 Los Angeles Dodgers: .290/20/85
Ryan Zimmerman, 2006 Washington Nationals: .287/20/110
Two Hall of Famers (Mathews, Santo), a likely Hall of Famer who is still playing (Beltre), and two accomplished veterans (Keltner, Zimmerman). Exclusive company.
Can Devers join them? I don’t see why not. In 58 games with the Red Sox last year, he hit .284 with 10 homers and 30 RBIs. Over 162 games, that translates to 28 homers and 84 RBIs. And he was extraordinary in the five-game postseason sample size, hitting a pair of homers with a 1.338 OPS.
He has the pedigree as a highly-touted prospect who rocketed through the Red Sox farm system. And he has performed since arrival. I’m going with a slight under on the batting average – there will be a slump at some point – but the over on the homers and RBIs. Now if he could just learn a few tricks from Beltre about how to play third base.
J.D. Martinez
Home runs
: 39.5
Martinez hit 29 homers in 62 games with the Diamondbacks after his July 18 trade from Detroit last season, and 45 overall, so 39.5 doesn’t seem like that much. But Martinez has tremendous power to right-center, and I wonder if some of last year’s homers become this year’s doubles, triples, and Kevin Kiermaier web gems.
Per Baseball-Reference.com Martinez’s top career comp through age 29 is Jason Bay. When Bay was 30, he hit 36 homers and drove in 119 runs with a .921 OPS for the 2009 Red Sox. Similar numbers would be a perfectly acceptable outcome for Martinez in his first season in Boston. I’m going with the under, but Martinez’s season as a whole will be more than satisfying for Red Sox fans.
Chris Sale
Wins
: 16.5
Most Boston fans are probably aware of this, but I bet it would surprise a lot of baseball fans (and media) elsewhere to discover that Sale was not the Red Sox’ sole leader in victories last year. Fellow lefty Drew Pomeranz, like Sale, won 17 games, and actually had fewer losses – 6, to Sale’s 8.
This isn’t about Pomeranz’s stealthy excellence last year. It’s about what to expect from Sale this year. It’s no secret that Sale wore down in the second half last year, and it’s pretty clear that Alex Cora has the wisdom to try to get his ace extra rest whenever possible.
So, no, Sale probably won’t be leading the American League in innings pitched (214.1), strikeouts (308), or finishing fourth in batters faced (851) like he did in ’17. John Farrell left him out there for 111 pitches on Sept. 20 in a 9-0 win over the Orioles so he could collect his 300th strikeout. Nothing like that is ever happening again.
I’m taking the under on Sale wins. No AL starter won more than 18 last year, and I doubt one will win 20 this year given how liberal most teams are with their bullpen usage nowadays. But the payoff will come when Sale will earn his first postseason win, and maybe a couple more.
But David Price at 13.5 wins? Totally taking the over there. He won at least 15 every year from 2014-16, and he’s never been on a better team than this one. Healthy again, he’ll pick up some of the workload Sale relinquishes.
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