Here’s how the Red Sox should line up their pitching for Games 4 and 5
COMMENTARY
On Sunday, the Red Sox made it a series. Buoyed by David Price’s pitching, Mookie Betts’ defense and Hanley Ramirez’s and Rafael Devers’ hitting, Red Sox fans can now conceive of a way to get through this American League Division Series. So let’s make a road map. The position player side is pretty well set, so what we really need is a pitching road map. To make matters more complicated, we need to lay out two different road maps – one for if Game 4 is played on Monday, and one for it is played on Tuesday.
Let’s start with the Monday road map. In both scenarios, we’ll say that Game 5 will be on Wednesday in Houston regardless of whether Game 4 is played Monday or Tuesday.
Rain is in the forecast for Monday, but there is a definite window to play the game in the afternoon. Assuming that happens, Rick Porcello will start. He is the scheduled starter, and has thrown just 12 pitches this series, so he should be nice and fresh. In fact, let’s break out where guys are with their workloads:
Table 1
So, yeah, Porcello should be nice and fresh. But given how things have gone for Red Sox starting pitchers in this series (and in the postseason in general), let’s not pencil Porcello in for five innings. Let’s say three. That leaves six innings. Where are they coming from?
Let’s work backwards. One thing we can say with some certainty is that on Monday, neither Chris Sale nor David Price will be available. Doug Fister and Austin Maddox likely are available, but let’s pretend they won’t be. Neither truly deserved his roster spot – they would have been better off going to Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree or Brandon Workman – and neither should pitch in a competitive game the rest of October. Finally, while the 22 pitches Joe Kelly threw Sunday probably don’t knock him out for Monday, he’s also probably not the one you want to lean on for a Monday Game 4.
With the options narrowed, Craig Kimbrel jumps out. He should be good to go for two innings. The same should be true of Addison Reed. That’s seven innings. That leaves two innings to be squeezed out of the quartet of Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Carson Smith, with Kelly available in a pinch.
Should the Sox emerge from this game victorious, they would then roll into Game 5 in Houston with the one-two punch of Sale and Price. Get seven innings from the two of them – say five from Sale, and two from Price – and an inning each from Reed and Kimbrel, who will be rested from the off-day, and you’ve got a road map to victory.
Of course, it is going to rain at some point on Monday. No forecast can really be trusted, especially since we’re dealing with a less-predictable tropical storm. So, who knows, maybe the Red Sox won’t play on Monday. So if Game 4 was pushed to Tuesday, how would that alter the pitching plans?
At the very least, it would mean that you’re asking more of Kimbrel and Reed if the games are back-to-back. The good news is that they’ll have the benefit of an extra day off. If Game 4 was on the 10th, then Reed will enter it with only seven pitches thrown in the prior three days; zero for Kimbrel. So, we’ll leave their Game 4 workload at two innings each. But instead of Porcello starting, now you can slot Sale in on normal rest. This is huge.
There’d certainly be a temptation to save Sale for Game 5 and bridge the gap with Porcello & Co. in Game 4. This would be a mistake. Red Sox fans of a certain age will remember a similar scenario that unfolded in Game 4 of the 1998 ALDS against Cleveland. Rather than starting Pedro Martinez in Game 4 with the Sox trailing 2-1 (with the one win coming in Martinez’s Game 1 start), Red Sox manager Jimy Williams chose to start Pete Schourek instead. Schourek actually did his job, as he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings. But the Sox would lose, 2-1, without getting Martinez to the mound a second time, and fans were furious. In that instance though, it was a less clear-cut decision because Martinez would have been pitching on three days rest. Not so would be the case for Sale on Tuesday. Since he pitched on Oct. 5, Oct. 10 would represent a normal four-day rest period. You’d have to roll with him.
So, say five innings from Sale and two each from Reed and Kimbrel and you have Game 4 sewn up. That leaves Game 5 as a kitchen sink game. Since Price was vocal about being a starter after Game 3, let’s start with him. This wouldn’t be a typical start, of course. Let’s call it three innings. If he can go longer than that, marvelous. But let’s call it three innings. Following that, you get one inning from basically everyone else left – Kelly, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Smith, Reed and Kimbrel. That’s actually seven pitchers, which is more than you need if everyone gets one inning, but maybe there is a specific situation when you play matchups. Turning around Marwin Gonzalez and Carlos Beltran and making them bat right-handed could be particularly effective. And if Price can go for more than three innings, fewer of the other pitchers will be needed, which would be great.
The good news is that the Sox will die another day. And whether Game 4 is played on Monday or Tuesday, the Sox can put together a good pitching road map for the remainder of the ALDS.
