Trade analysis: Yankees used deep farm system to address needs
For months, it seemed inevitable that the White Sox would trade third baseman Todd Frazier to the American League East in a deal that would reshape the division. But while that vision came to fruition Tuesday night, Chicago’s trade partner came as a bit of a shock to those who’d spent months anticipating another Red Sox-White Sox match.
The Yankees acquired the power-hitting Frazier, along with righthanded relievers David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox. In exchange, New York, possessors of one of the game’s deepest farm systems, sent a package of three minor leaguers — headlined by highly regarded outfielder Blake Rutherford, a 2016 first-round pick — along with reliever Tyler Clippard to Chicago.
The move addresses a pair of New York’s shortcomings while leaving the Red Sox to deal with a slightly more picked-over pool.
Frazier, who hit 40 homers in 2016 and averaged 35 from 2014-16, gives New York a righthanded corner infielder with thump. He’s hitting just .207 but thanks to a career-best 14.3 percent walk rate, his .328 OBP is close to the best of his career (he posted a .336 mark in his All-Star 2014 season). He also has a .432 slugging mark and 16 homers.
New York can employ the righthanded hitter at first base — Yankees first basemen have combined for a woeful .208/.295/.391 line, all marks that ranked among the bottom two for the position in the majors — or at third, where Chase Headley is hitting .258/.341/.371, including a .208/.232/.302 line against lefties.
Yet the more massive upgrade for New York — a team whose offense is scoring 5.4 runs per game, second in the AL — may come from the additions of Robertson and Kahnle. After all, the Yankees have had a superior lineup in comparison with the first-place Red Sox this year, and New York’s rotation ERA (4.16 entering Tuesday) is comparable with Boston’s (4.09).
The fact that the Red Sox entered the day with a 3½-game advantage over New York owed in no small part to Boston’s superior bullpen work. While the Red Sox have just nine blown saves this year, the Yankees have 18 — most in the majors — while their relievers have been pegged with 17 losses, seven more than the Sox. The Yankees’ move should address that area of weakness and give New York a potentially dominant combination of late-innings arms.
In 31 games spanning 33⅓ innings this year, Robertson has a 2.70 ERA (his lowest since 2013) with 12.7 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings. Righties are hitting .213/.304/.426 against the righthander, while lefties have a microscopic .138/.206/.207 line against him. He is 13 for 14 in saves in his fourth season as a closer, though he also has several years of experience as a setup man in front of Yankees closer Mariano Rivera. He has been strikingly durable, posting seven straight seasons of at least 60 appearances and 60 innings.
Robertson, 32, is in the third season of a four-year, $46 million deal he signed with Chicago after the 2014 season; he costs roughly $4.75 million hit against payroll as calculated for luxury tax purposes.
Kahnle (2.50 ERA, 15.0 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.8 walks per 9), who won’t be arbitration eligible until next season, has stumbled recently after a brilliant start, raising questions about whether a pitcher who has yet to demonstrate sustainable durability is hitting a wall. After he allowed four earned runs in his first 30 games, he yielded six in his final five contests with three blown saves prior to the All-Star break.
That said, his strikeout rate is outrageous, and even though he’s enjoyed notably better performance against righties (.165/.183/.316) than lefties (.288/.345/.327) this year, much of the disparity can be explained by an insane batting average on balls on play (.517) posted by lefties this year. His career track record suggests that Kahnle is likely to see that number drop significantly, with his splits thus leveling out.
In Dellin Betances (42.9 percent, third), Kahnle (42.6 percent, fourth), Chad Green (37.4 percent, 10th), Robertson (35.6 percent, 18th), and Aroldis Chapman (34.0 percent, 22nd), New York now has five relievers who rank among the top 25 in the majors in strikeout percentage. That group could help shorten games, creating visions of the sort of late-innings buzzsaw that helped propel Kansas City to a championship.
With Frazier off the board, the Red Sox are left to continue their search for improved production at third base. The team’s carousel of third basemen have combined to produce a .227 average (third worst in the AL – though ahead of Frazier’s White Sox) with a .281 OBP (last in the AL) and .325 slugging mark (also last).
That performance led to a candid evaluation from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the Sox’ interest in upgrading the position.
“I think we’re open to upgrading ourself any way we possibly can. Third base becomes the obvious because when you look at the rest of the club from a positional player perspective . . . [and] mostly from a pitching perspective, there’s not any glaring weaknesses at that point,’’ Dombrowski said on NESN prior to Tuesday’s game. “But third base is the one area where we really haven’t come up with the league norm, the league average at this time. So again, we’re open-minded to doing it any way we possibly can. Third base is one area where we could possibly address.’’
While Frazier seemed like a natural fit given that he would add power to a lineup that ranks last in the American League in homers, the Sox now may be the only contender looking to upgrade their production at third base. That could leave them with low-cost opportunities for the remaining players in a pool that includes utility types rather than true thumpers — with Eduardo Nunez, Martin Prado, and Asdrubal Cabrera (among others) still on the board. Of course, if the Royals continue their downward trajectory, they could make All-Star third baseman Mike Moustakas available.
The White Sox, meanwhile, continue an all-in rebuild that started when Chicago traded ace Chris Sale to Boston for a four-prospect package headlined by Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. In Rutherford, Chicago gets an outfielder whom Baseball America ranked as the Yankees’ second-best prospect and the 37th overall in the game. (Aside from untouchable prospect Rafael Devers, who is ranked No. 6, the Red Sox don’t have another prospect ranked in the publication’s midyear top 75.)
New York also sent 22-year-old lefthander Ian Clarkin, a 2013 first-rounder who has a 2.61 ERA as a starter in the High A Florida State League, and 22-year-old outfielder Tito Polo (hitting .307/.369/.455 between High A and Double A this year) to the White Sox.
In order to help offset some of the salary being absorbed by the Yankees, Chicago also took on reliever Tyler Clippard, whose 5.58 ERA and five blown saves (tied for fifth most in the majors) contributed to the problem that New York felt compelled to address.
