A-Rod’s suggestion that the Red Sox should trade for Miguel Cabrera is a big swing and miss
COMMENTARY
Through so many seasons and self-inflicted scandals we’ve learned not to believe much of what Alex Rodriguez says, though it should be noted his friendship-shattering assessment of Derek Jeter (“You never say, ‘Don’t let Derek beat you.’ He’s never your concern”) in a 2001 Esquire interview was the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
Even accomplished narcissists offer real moments of candor once in a while, apparently. But beyond his clumsy, accurate diss of Jeter all those years ago, he’s been chronically disingenuous to the point that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s timeless line about the trustworthiness of George Steinbrenner could just as easily be slapped on A-Rod.
“How do you know when George Steinbrenner is lying?’’ asked Reinsdorf in 1983. “When his lips are moving.”
It should be noted that A-Rod’s lips were indeed moving Saturday on Fox’s national baseball broadcast when he suggested that the Red Sox could make a trade for Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera, a player they should be avoiding at most if not all costs. A grain of salt is not enough to sufficiently make this suggestion palatable. You may need to take it with an ocean’s worth of sea salt.
“I’ve been watching Dave Dombrowski since 1993 when he took over the Marlins GM job, brought the championship to Miami in 1997,” Rodriguez said. “I would not be surprised, now this is just me . . . but I would not be surprised to see Dave Dombrowski pull off a blockbuster and get Miguel Cabrera to the Red Sox.
“Let me tell you why. Six years, $184 million owed to him, no no-trade clause, and they have the prospects in Boston and the resources with [owner] John Henry to make this deal happen.”
There’s a lot to parse here, so let’s start with the most obvious reason — one big, fat number — why the Red Sox shouldn’t and probably cannot consider it: $184,000,000.
Cabrera, who is 34 years old, signed an eight-year, $248 million extension with the Tigers in March 2014. The extension was tacked on to the remaining two years and $44 million on his old deal.
The extension also had a pair of additional vesting options at the end for $30 million per season. If those options vest, Cabrera will make $352 million from the point when the extension was signed through the final year of the deal in 2025, when he will be 42 years old.
That aforementioned $184 million is the minimum remaining salary on Cabrera’s deal after this season, if those two options do not vest. He is guaranteed to be under contract until 2023, when he will be in his age-40 season.
And you thought Pablo Sandoval had a sweet deal.
That would be a tough contract to take on even if Cabrera were having his typical spectacular season. But he’s not.
His .796 OPS this season would stand as his lowest since he put up a .793 as a 20-year-old with the 2003 Marlins. His current OPS is barely higher than that of Dustin Pedroia (.785) and Xander Bogaerts (.785), equal to Andrew Benintendi’s (.796), and lower than Jackie Bradley Jr.’s (.816). Cabrera has 12 homers, as many as Benintendi and Bradley and fewer than the maligned Hanley Ramirez (14).
Cabrera is a mortal-lock Hall of Famer. His most similar historical comparisons through age-33 include Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Mickey Mantle. But right now the player with the initials MM who he is most statistically like this year is Mitch Moreland. Maybe Cabrera will get hot. But right now, he looks more like a long-term albatross rather than any team’s solution.
Given the Red Sox’ wise desire to remain under the luxury tax threshold this season, plus the toll in prospects it would probably cost in order to get the Tigers to eat a significant portion of Cabrera’s salary, plus the reality that taking on the contract could conceivably hamstring them in pursuit of prime-of-career stars hitting free agency in the coming years (Bryce Harper, Manny Machado) or even in locking up their own young stars (Mookie Betts) . . . well, there are few plusses and little logic to such a deal at all.
Scratch that. There is one logical if still unlikely way that A-Rod’s conjecture becomes reality. Dombrowski remains smitten with Cabrera and gives up a couple of the Red Sox’ few remaining compelling prospects to get the Tigers to eat a sizable chunk of the deal.
The history between Dombrowski and Cabrera is remarkable. Dombrowski was the Marlins’ general manager when the franchise gave the 16-year-old Venezuelan a $1.8 million bonus to sign with the franchise in July 1999. (Cabrera played shortstop in his early days in organized baseball in the United States. Try to envision that.)
In December 2007, when Cabrera was an established superstar making too much money for the Marlins’ liking, Dombrowski, who had moved on to become the Tigers’ GM before the 2002 season, acquired him and Dontrelle Willis for six players, including pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin. Much like his trade for Craig Kimbrel with the Padres, Dombrowski was not shy about meeting a trade partner’s steep demands to get a player he desired.
Wrote Peter Gammons for ESPN at the time: “Florida didn’t even approach the Tigers until Tuesday morning. The Marlins told the Tigers they could have the two stars for those six players, then Detroit called back about two hours later and agreed.
The irony, of course, is that Dombrowski happens to be the executive who awarded Cabrera that eight-year, $248 million extension in 2014. Given Cabrera’s relative struggles this season, and the hideous vision of what his contract might look like in a couple of years, it’s nothing short of a blessing that Dombrowski’s past largesse then might be the only thing keeping him from bringing Cabrera to a third franchise now.
Besides, we wouldn’t want A-Rod to prove prescient, would we? That would mean we’d actually have to pay attention when his lips start moving.
