The Red Sox-Yankees rivalry resumes — and could decide the AL East in 2017
COMMENTARYThe current decade has been an uneventful one for the storied Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. With the Yankees sliding into mediocrity, having made the postseason just once in the last four years, and the Red Sox ping-ponging between first and last place in the AL East, finishing in one or the other in each of the last five years, many seasons have passed since the age-old rivals have simultaneously vied for the division title. Indeed, the two teams haven’t finished in consecutive places in the divisional standings since 2010 and haven’t finished in the top two spots in the division since 2009, the year of the last Yankees championship.Heading into the current season, the Red Sox were not only the defending division champions, but a heavy favorite to repeat that title. However, it wasn’t the Yankees but the Blue Jays, who snapped a 20-year playoff drought by winning the division in 2015 and made it to the American League Championship Series in each of the last two seasons, that seemed poised to be their primary rival. Then the season began, and Toronto tripped over the starting line, opening the season with a face-plant.Having yet to win consecutive games this season, the Blue Jays opened this week’s action with the worst record in Baseball, 5-14 (.263). With Edwin Encarnacion now in Cleveland, Josh Donaldson in the disabled list with the calf issue that slowed him down in spring training, Troy Tulowitzki on the DL with yet another leg injury, and Jose Bautista sporting a .471 OPS, the Blue Jays’ lineup has been among the least productive in baseball. Only the Pirates, White Sox, Padres and Royals scored fewer runs scored per game through Sunday’s action. With Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ, Toronto’s two best starters a year ago, also on the DL, and the team’s two top relievers also scuffling, the pitching hasn’t been much better. Toronto is certainly capable of getting healthy and hot and surging up the standings. However, at this early point they are already, crucially, six games behind the Red Sox in the loss column, seven games behind the Yankees, and a whopping nine behind the Orioles. No other team with as legitimate a chance at contention this season as the Blue Jays has done as much damage to that chance in the season’s first three weeks, and the direct beneficiary of their stumble is the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.Boston and New York will reignite that rivalry Tuesday night at Fenway Park in the first of 19 games between the two teams this season. The Yankees arrive in town with a half-game lead on the Red Sox for second place in the division having opened the season with a flourish that suggests that New York may be leaving mediocrity behind.The Yankees won eight straight games from April 9 to 17 and arrive in Boston having scored 5.1 runs per game this season, tops in the American League, and having allowed just 3.4 runs per game, second only to the Royals in all of baseball. They have enjoyed that success despite injuries to two of their best everyday players, sophomore catcher Gary Sanchez and slick-fielding shortstop Didi Gregorius, and the unexpectedly slow start of 24-year-old first baseman Greg Bird, who was among the hottest hitters in baseball in exhibition play. Expectations are that all three will contribute in time, counteracting the expected regression from the hot starts of 33-year-old third baseman Chase Headley and erratic 27-year-old second baseman Starlin Castro as well as overachieving role payers and replacements such as fourth outfielder Aaron Hicks and catcher Austin Romine.Most significantly, the Yankees have been powered, literally, by 25-year-old Giancarlo Stanton clone Aaron Judge. A 6’7” monster who won the right field job in camp, Judge has been among the majors’ most impressive power hitters this month, slugging .639 with six home runs, the last two of which left his bat at more than 115 miles per hour and traveled a combined 905 feet. The Yankees have also been encouraged by the strong start of 23-year-old righty Luis Severino, who will take the ball for New York on Tuesday night against defending Cy Young Award winner and New Jersey native Rick Porcello. Severino, a former top prospect who struggled mightily as a sophomore last year, has struck out 21 men against just one walk in 15 innings over his last two starts. If Judge and Severino can fulfill their promise for the Yankees this season, New York’s outlook will have improved dramatically.Of course, it’s still far too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about the season ahead, but one way to separate out the flukes is to look at the underlying components of team performance. One metric I prefer for that purpose is third-order record, which goes a step beyond Pythagorean record by calculating a team’s expected runs scored and allowed based on the component events of run scoring (hits, walks, steals, outs, etc.), then derives an expected won-loss record from the resulting run differential. That metric sees the Blue Jays as a legitimate mess (.360 third-order winning percentage), the current first-place Orioles as an early-season fluke (.487 third-order winning percentage), and the Yankees as the best team in baseball to this point in the season (.697 third-order winning percentage). The Red Sox remain stuck in third place by that metric with a .528 third-order winning percentage, effectively a game worse than their actual mark (10-9 vs. 11-8). However, I don’t expect Boston to remain mired there for long.The Red Sox’s primary affliction thus far is the fact that the offense has yet to get in gear. With just 4.1 runs scored per game, the Sox are below the AL average in run scoring thus far. It was a given that the Sox were going to take a step back from the MLB-best 5.4 runs per game they scored last year, but it shouldn’t be that large of a step. Jackie Bradley Jr. just got back from the DL on Friday. Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez have both dealt with minor injuries that have inhibited their getting in the groove, and the team is deep enough to avoid letting Sandy Leon or Pablo Sandoval undermine the rest of the lineup. The run scoring will improve, and returning to Fenway, as the Red Sox are this week, opening a 10-game homestand, is a great way to jump-start it. Should the Yankees sustain their hot start and the Red Sox round into shape, we could indeed be treated to a rejuvenation of their rivalry in 2017. Indeed, with both teams enjoying an influx of young talent in recent seasons, the rivalry is ripe for renewal. Sanchez will be absent from this week’s series, but Judge could be among Andrew Benintendi’s primary rivals for the AL Rookie of the Year Award this season, while youngsters such as Mookie Betts, Xander Bogarts, Bradley, Bird and Severino have yet to experience the rivalry in full flower. The same is true for Wednesday’s 28-year-old ace starters Chris Sale and Masahiro Tanaka. That could change this season. If so, it starts tonight.
