Who will lead the Red Sox in home runs this season?
Debate the answer with Chad Finn and Boston sports fans at The Sports Q.
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Who leads the Red Sox in homers this season now that Big Papi is gone? – Todd F.
Well, let’s take a look here. The Red Sox had five players with more than 20 home runs in 2016:
David Ortiz: 38
Mookie Betts: 31
Hanley Ramirez: 30
Jackie Bradley Jr.: 26
Xander Bogaerts: 21
I imagine the majority of Red Sox fans have come to grips with the reality that Ortiz isn’t returning. Those still in denial probably would acknowledge he’s not hitting 38 bombs after his glorious return following the All-Star break. (That is the strand you’re clinging to, yes? A midseason surprise?) So we can cross him off then.
That brings us to the marvelous Mookie. Nothing he does surprises me, or will surprise me going forward. The Red Sox have had plenty of wonderful players through the seasons, but few have featured the combination of talent, skill, charisma, athleticism, and likability as Betts. He’s going to be in the argument for the AL MVP award for years to come. Sure, he might hit more than 31 homers. But in terms of home run power, it wouldn’t shock me if he hit his ceiling last year. He was a 9.6 bWAR player! How much better can he get?
Hanley? He’d be my choice if someone could assure me that he’ll play 147 or more games again. But he’s played that many just one other time since 2009. Hopefully serving as the designated hitter for the majority of the time keeps him from getting dinged up. I was surprised to realize that he’s had just one season in his excellent career in which he hit more than 31 homers (33 in 2008).
Bogaerts and Bradley are both wild cards in this because of their relative streakiness. The hunch here is that Bradley hits fewer homers this year, while Bogaerts adds a half-dozen or so to his total during his steady ascent to becoming one of the league’s premier players. But neither is leading the team this year, nor will young Andrew Benintendi, even if he does end up hitting third as a rookie.
My choice? It’s tempting to suggest Bogaerts will take a huge leap forward and add double-figures to last year’s home total. But I’m not ready to go there yet. So let’s go with Mookie, with a total close to last year’s 31. Because if Papi does make that midseason comeback you’re dreaming of, he’d probably hit just 20 homers in the second half. Twenty-five, tops.
Who’s your 2017 Red Sox home run leader? Take your hacks in the comments, and this hack will meet you there.
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