Rick Porcello wasn’t the clear choice for Cy Young, but he’s a deserving one
Rick Porcello's career year earned him Cy Young honors.
COMMENTARY
Rick Porcello became the fourth Red Sox pitcher to win a Cy Young award Wednesday night, and the first since Pedro Martinez in 2000. Porcello was the odds-on favorite to win the award on the strength of his 22-4 record, major league-best 5.91 strikeout to walk ratio, and 145 ERA+ in 223 innings, but the vote was far closer than expected. Porcello just barely edged out runner-up Justin Verlander of the Tigers, 137 points to 132, while finishing first on just eight ballots to Verlander’s 14.
As that tight vote suggests, Porcello was not clearly the best pitcher in the American League this season. Verlander bested him in innings, strikeouts and strikeout rate, WHIP, ERA (though not the park-adjusted ERA+), deserved run average, and wins above replacement. I must admit, if I had a ballot (I am a member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, but did not have an awards vote this year), I would have put Verlander at the top of it. Still, the acknowledgement that Porcello may not have been fully deserving of the award should not diminish the perception of his 2016 season.
The 2016 season was, by nearly every measure, the best of Porcello’s career. He set career bests in innings, strikeouts (189), ERA (3.15), ERA+, WHIP (1.01), walk rate (1.3 BB/9), strikeout-to- walk ratio, fielding independent pitching (3.40), wins above replacement (5.0 per Baseball-Reference’s math), and, yes, wins and winning percentage (.846). Just as importantly, it continued a number of positive trends that have been developing over Porcello’s entire career.
The 27th overall pick in the 2007 Rule 4 draft, Porcello was on the fast track to the majors from the start of his professional career. An elite prospect before he ever threw a professional pitch, he made his pro debut in High-A as a 19-year- old in 2008 then jumped directly to the Tigers’ Opening Day rotation in 2009 at the age of 20. Talented as he may have been at that early age, he was far from a finished product. Primarily a pitch-to- contact pitcher working with a sinker/slider/change repertoire, Porcello pitched just well enough to hold down a spot at the back of the Tigers’ rotation. In his first four major league seasons, he struck out just five men per nine innings while posting 4.55 ERA (94 ERA+, six percent worse than league average after adjusting for ballpark effects), 1.42 WHIP and 2.13 strikeout-to- walk ratio. Per bWAR, he was worth just 4.3 wins over those four seasons combined, more than half of that coming in his rookie year.
Porcello was disappointing enough over those four seasons, in part due to the Tigers’ poor defense, that it was easy to miss the gradual improvements in his strikeout and walk rates over that span. Those improvements became more obvious in 2013, his age-24 season, and after he posted a 113 ERA+ over 204 2/3 innings in 2014, the Red Sox acquired him from Detroit for Yoenis Cespedes’s walk year and righty reliever Alex Wilson and signed him to a four-year, $82.5 million extension before his first regular season start for Boston.
The early returns were ugly. Porcello struggled in his first four months with the Red Sox before landing on the disabled list with a triceps strain. When he returned from the DL, however, it was as if those first four months had never happened. Returning to action in late July, Porcello picked up where he had left off in Detroit, posting 3.14 ERA over his final eight starts of the season with a 5.18 strikeout-to- walk ratio, numbers he would improve upon amidst a league-wide offensive outburst the following season.
The Rick Porcello who emerged as the Red Sox’s surprising ace bore little resemblance to that pitch-to- contact groundballer of five years ago. He began throwing his slider more like a cutter as far back as 2010, deemphasized that pitch in favor of his curve in 2013, and began working up in the zone with his four-seamer in subsequent seasons. Those changes have reduced his groundball rate, but also helped him push his strikeout rate above seven per nine innings in three of the last four seasons.
As this season progressed, he gained confidence and command in his four-seamer up in the zone, increasing his use of the pitch in each month of the season. As Porcello told the MLB Network Wednesday night, his ability to locate his four-seamer up and sinker down on both sides of the plate gave him fastball command in all four quadrants of the strikezone this season, a firm foundation from which he could work in his curve, change, and slider. The result was a string of 13 straight quality starts to finish the season over which he posted a 2.60 ERA while striking out 81 batters against just eight walks.
Of course, his teammates helped out considerably on both sides of the ball. Having morphed into a fly- ball pitcher, Porcello found himself pitching to the Red Sox’s best glove men, specifically likely AL MVP Mookie Betts in right and Jackie Bradley Jr. in center. Indeed, Porcello’s opponents hit just .269 on balls in play this season, compared to a career mark of .314 coming into the season, and just .235 over those final 13 starts. They also helped out by giving Porcello more run support than any other qualified starter in the majors this year, thus the major league leading 22 wins including a 14-2 record over his final 18 starts.
Nonetheless, one can step back now and see the larger trends in Porcello’s career.
Year K% BB% K/BB FIP
2009 12.4 7.2 1.71 4.77
2010 12.0 5.4 2.21 4.31
2011 13.3 5.9 2.26 4.06
2012 13.7 5.6 2.43 3.91
2013 19.3 5.7 3.38 3.53
2014 15.4 4.9 3.15 3.67
2015 20.2 5.2 3.92 4.13
2016 21.2 3.6 5.91 3.40
Given that he won’t turn 28 until two days after Christmas and is still under contract for three more years after having far out-earned his $20 million salary for 2016, those are very encouraging signs for the Red Sox.
Rick Porcello isn’t going to be the next Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez, who together won five of the now seven Cy Young awards received by a Red Sox pitcher. Most likely this will be the only Cy Young Porcello will ever win. However, the argument could be made that, relative to the respective scoring environments of their Cy Young seasons, Porcello’s 2016 season was both better and more deserving of the award than Jim Lonborg’s superficially similar 1967. Porcello may be three years older than Lonborg was in his Cy Young season, but, provided he can avoid a recreational catastrophe such as the skiing injury that derailed Lonborg’s career, he is in an excellent position to have a greater career in Boston and to build off his Cy Young success in the coming season.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com