Dave Dombrowski’s top priorities for this Red Sox offseason
COMMENTARYWith free agents able to sign with any team as of this past Tuesday, the Hot Stove season is officially upon us. The Red Sox have already taken care of some early housecleaning, notably picking up Clay Buchholz’s $13.5 million contract option for 2017 — a depth move for a 32-year-old sixth starter who showed improvement after making some mid-season mechanical adjustments. The team declined backup catcher Ryan Hanigan’s $3.75 million option, and also declined to extend qualifying offers to any of their eligible free agents (Hanigan and right-handed relievers Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa). All of those are no-brainer decisions. With those taken care of, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, and what remains of his front office after the Diamondbacks pilfered general manager Mike Hazen and vice president of international and amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye (not to mention bench coach Torey Lovullo) need to get to work assembling the 2017 Red Sox. The following should the team’s two top priorities:
The Bullpen
With Uehara, Tazawa and Brad Ziegler reaching free agency, and Cleveland reaffirming the importance of dominant and versatile relief pitching in the postseason, the bullpen needs to be a priority for Dombrowski and company this offseason. Incumbent closer Craig Kimbrel remains under contract and has an option for the 2018 season. Joe Kelly, who has two arbitration years remaining, made an overdue transition to the bullpen late in the 2016 season, dominating down the stretch and into the postseason. He appears likely to be a key set-up man for Kimbrel in 2017, possibly as a multi-inning fireman. Still, the Red Sox could use another high-leverage arm. That could be Ziegler, whose submarining junk contrasts effectively against the conventional fireballing of Kimbrel and Kelly. However, the one thing this offseason’s free-agent class has an abundance of is elite relief pitching: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon are all set to become free agents, joining Ziegler, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla, among others with extensive high-leverage experience and significant track records of success. To my eye, Jansen is the cream of that crop, especially after proving himself willing and able to work in the fireman roll this postseason. However, Jansen received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning he would cost the Red Sox their top pick in the 2017 amateur draft. With Kimbrel in place, the Red Sox may not want to wade that deep into those waters. Still, given the presumption of contention again next year, the Red Sox’s bullpen monster should have at least three heads, and Carson Smith isn’t likely to return from his Tommy John rehabilitation until at least mid-season.
Replacing Big Papi
Obviously, the Red Sox can’t simply replace a player as iconic, important, and productive as Ortiz was both this season and for the last 14 years. The flip side of Ortiz having one of the greatest final seasons in major league history is that few retiring players have ever left as large a hole in their team’s roster. Ortiz was a five-win player last year according to Baseball-Reference’s wins above replacement (5.1 bWAR to be exact). By way of comparison, Yoenis Cespedes, who opted out of his Mets contract after the World Series, was worth 2.9 wins above replacement in 2016. Fellow free agent Mark Trumbo, who led the majors with 47 home runs, was worth just 1.6 bWAR (his power production having been undermined by a characteristically poor on-base percentage — .316 this year, .303 career — and his brutal play in the field).None of this offseason’s free agents matched or surpassed Ortiz’s value this past season, and the ones who came closest — Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (4.9 bWAR) and Cubs centerfielder Dexter Fowler (4.2 bWAR) — did so in part due to their play in the field. Turner, who will be 32 in the coming season, is a compelling option given that third base was the Red Sox’ weakest position in 2016. With Pablo Sandoval having gone belly-up in spring training, the Red Sox’s third basemen hit a combined .242/.306/.380 this year, which translates to a 78 sOPS+, meaning Boston’s third-base production was 22 percent worse than league average at the position after adjusting for ballpark. Turner, by comparison, was 12 percent better than the average third baseman at the plate, and excelled in the field, as well. Having averaged 4.4 bWAR over the last three seasons, Turner would be a huge upgrade at the hot corner for Boston, but he wouldn’t solve the team’s vacancy at designated hitter.The best fit for that spot would be Edwin Encarnacion, who has been one of the game’s top power hitters over the last five years, hitting .272/.367/.544, good for a 146 OPS+, while averaging 39 home runs and 110 RBI per season over that span. By way of comparison, Ortiz posted a 154 OPS+ while averaging 33 homers and 100 RBI per season over the same span. Encarnacion also played first base throughout the postseason for Toronto without issue and would thus give Boston more flexibility than Ortiz did. Encarnacion, who will turn 34 in January, won’t match Ortiz’s production from this past season, but no other free agent is likely to come as close. Signing Encarnacion would also rob the division rival Blue Jays of their second-most-valuable everyday player, after perennial MVP candidate Josh Donaldson.The Red Sox have already spoken with Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, but should pursue Turner, as well. They are unlikely to land both, but given that both are already well into their thirties and that this offseason’s thin free-agent market will likely result in above-market contracts for both, that’s probably a good thing. Still, the Sox need at least one of them, as they will require outside help to replace Ortiz’s production and are likely to experience regression elsewhere in the lineup, as well. Yes, the Red Sox led the majors in run scoring by a considerable distance this past year, but one need look no further than Encarnacion’s Blue Jays for evidence of how difficult it is to repeat such a season. The 2015 Blue Jays had one of the most dominant offenses in major league history, brought back that lineup largely intact this past season, and finished fourth in the league in runs scored. Boston’s lineup is thick with regression candidates. Among them are a 33-year-old Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts coming off an MVP-quality campaign, catcher Sandy Leon, whose surprising production over 78 games wasn’t enough to bring the Red Sox’s catchers as a whole up to league average, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who got off to a hot start, but struggled down the stretch and into the postseason. Meanwhile, as good as he looked in his first major league exposure, there’s no guarantee that 22-year-old Andrew Benintendi, who will still qualify as a rookie next year, will out-hit the .268/.337/.423 line the Sox got from left field this past season. There’s also no guarantee that Hanley Ramirez will stay healthy enough to make another 620 plate appearances, as that was his highest total since 2012.That litany is one of the many reasons that the Red Sox’s early playoff exit this year was so painful. Nearly everything went right for them this season. They can’t expect that to happen again in 2017. Still, this team is good enough and young enough to be right in the thick of the AL East race again next year. If they can add a big bat and an elite bullpen arm, they may even enter the season as the favorites.
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