ALDS Game 3 preview: Red Sox turn to Clay Buchholz to save season against Indians
COMMENTARYSeries: ALDS Game 3, Indians lead series 2-0Start Time: 4:00 p.m. ESTTV: TBSStarting Pitchers: Indians RHP Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) vs. Red Sox RHP Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA)History: You can’t sugar coat this one, the Red Sox are in big trouble. Even if they do manage to win Games 3 and 4 at home, they’ll still have to beat Corey Kluber in Cleveland in Game 5 to win the series. Out of the 37 teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a 2-2-1 format best-of-five series, just four have come back to win the series, and only two of those four had to play Game 5 on the road. That those two were both Red Sox teams has little relevance to this team. David Ortiz is the only player remaining from the 2003 Red Sox team that climbed out of an 0-2 hole against the A’s, winning Game 5 in Oakland, and the Red Sox’s comeback in the 1999 Division Series predates even Ortiz by four years. That 1999 comeback came against the Indians, with Pedro Martinez throwing six innings of hitless relief to deliver the win in Game 5 in Cleveland, but there are no members of either team or coaching staff remaining from those teams. Even the ownership of both teams has changed since then. History tells us the Red Sox’s chances of coming back to win this series is somewhere around 12 percent. Their chances of being swept and having their season end Sunday are around 60 percent. Starting Pitchers: The pitcher charged with helping the Red Sox extend their season another day is Clay Buchholz. This could be a legacy-defining start for Buchholz, whose $13.5 million option for next year is unlikely to be picked up, meaning this could be his final start for Boston. Buchholz was drafted with the compensation pick the team received when Pedro Martinez signed with the Mets back in 2005, dominated in the minor leagues, was lauded as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and threw a no-hitter in his second major league start in September 2007 for a team that would go on to win the World Series. Since then, however, his career has been erratic and injury plagued. He has made two All-Star teams, led the league in ERA+ and finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2010, his age 25-season, and won another ring in 2013, but he has also never thrown 190 innings or made 30 starts in a single regular season. Buchholz’s Red Sox career could perhaps best be summarized by his ERAs from the last five years, a period during which he averaged 22 starts per season: 4.56, 1.74, 5.34, 3.26, and 4.78.This year, Buchholz got off to such a poor start (6.35 ERA in his first 10 starts) that he was demoted to the bullpen for the first time in his career. Three more starts in late June and early July resulted in a 6.14 ERA and a return to the ‘pen, however, an injury to Steven Wright’s shoulder in mid-August gave him a third chance, and he finally took advantage. Though he did return to the pen briefly in late-August, Buchholz posted a 2.63 ERA over his final seven starts of the season, six of which were quality. Among those quality starts were outings against the Tigers, Orioles, and Yankees (twice). However, just one of them came at home. This game will be just Buchholz’s second home start since mid August and his third since early July. On the season, he posted a 3.90 ERA with 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings on the road, but a 5.60 ERA with 4.9 K/9 at home. Those numbers are likely skewed by Buchholz having pitched more innings at home during his early-season struggles, but they nonetheless dampen the optimism Buchholz strong finish might otherwise engender.Buchholz pitched poorly in two early season starts against the Indians, but that wasn’t atypical for him at that point in the season. After those two starts, he largely abandoned his splitter and started throwing more four-seam fastballs. He also raised his arm slot on the advice of director of pitching development Brian Bannister and has pitched primarily out of the stretch in an effort to remain consistent with his revamped delivery. The results speak for themselves, but while Buchholz has successfully reestablished himself in the Red Sox rotation, he hasn’t erased all doubts from the minds of Red Sox fans, nor, likely the Red Sox themselves.Buchholz has made five previous postseason starts, four of them during in the 2013 championship run. Just one of those five starts was quality, and just barely at that (6 IP, 3 R), and that came in a 5-4 loss in Game 3 of the 2013 Division Series. This will be the third ALDS Game 3 Buchholz has started. The Red Sox lost the first two (in 2009 and 2013). Buchholz has never earned a decision in the postseason, but the Red Sox are 3-2 in his postseason starts.Pitching for Cleveland, Josh Tomlin is a soft-tossing command and control righty who was drafted out of Texas Tech in the 19th round in 2006. Six-foot-one and of average build, his is as unexciting a profile as one can imagine. A 31-year-old whose major league career was interrupted by Tommy John surgery in 2012, his fastball averages just 88 miles per hour, and his strikeout rates are below average. The one thing he does well is throw strikes. Tomlin has walked just 28 men in 239 2/3 innings over the last two seasons and led the majors by averaging just one walk per nine innings this season. However, he is also a fly ball pitcher, and all of those strikes lead to a lot of home runs, 36 in just 174 innings this season, to be exact.Tomlin had a brutal August, during which he posted an 11.48 ERA while allowing 10 home runs in just six starts, taking the loss in the first five. However, after a lone relief outing in early September, he finished strong, with a 1.75 ERA and just one home run allowed in his final four starts, all against the Royals and White Sox. On top of that, his only quality start in August came against the Red Sox. He allowed two home runs in that game, to lefties Ortiz and Jackie Bradley Jr., but just three runs in total in seven innings. That start came in Cleveland. His last start at Fenway was back in 2014. Ortiz also took him deep in that one, as he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. This will be his first postseason appearance.Matchups: Ortiz has homered three times in 18 career plate appearances against Tomlin, but those are his only hits against the righty. Bradley is 3-for-7 (.429) with a homer against Tomlin, but otherwise, the Red Sox have not had a lot of success against him in the past. No other hitter on their ALDS roster has homered off of him, and they have combined to draw just two walks against him, one by Ortiz and one by Xander Bogaerts. Hanley Ramirez and Sandy Leon have never faced Tomlin.The Indians have had much more success in the past against Buchholz. Most notably, Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis have both gone 4-for-8 against him with multiple walks and extra-base hits. Mike Napoli has gone 4-for-16 with a double, a homer and three walks. Roberto Perez has never faced Buchholz.Quick Hook: Corey Kluber’s dominance and David Price’s struggles combined to allow Terry Francona to avoid using relief aces Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in Game 2. As a result, both have had two days of rest coming into this game. With the ability to end the series with a win, Francona is unlikely to hesitate to go to them early yet again. That means that getting an early lead will be crucial for Cleveland. Francona went to Miller in the fifth inning in Game 1, and would likely do so again if he has a slim lead and Tomlin has been anything short of dominant.Similarly, facing elimination, John Farrell will have to have a quick hook with Buchholz, going to his fully-rested bullpen at the first sign of serious trouble. Though they did allow two of three inherited runners to score, the Boston bullpen pitched well in the first two games, allowing just one unearned run of their own in 9 1/3 innings while striking out 11 against just two walks. With an off-day on Saturday and another on Tuesday, if they can get that far, there’s no reason for either team not to go to the bullpen early and often.Quiet Bats: The threat of the Indians’ bullpen puts significant pressure on the Red Sox’ lineup to generate an early lead. However, Boston’s biggest bats have been quiet thus far. Leadoff man Dustin Pedroia is 1-for-8 with a walk and four strikeouts. Third-place hitter and possible AL MVP Mookie Betts is 1-for-6 with a pair of walks. David Ortiz, one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time, has reached base just once in nine plate appearances. Further down in the order, Xander Bogarts is 1-for-8 with four strikeouts, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who was demoted to the ninth spot in the order for Game 2, is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts. Shocking as it has been to see him come up empty time and again, Ortiz’s performance thus far is not unprecedented. In 2009, he went 1-for-12 without an extra-base hit as the Sox were swept out of the Division Series by the Angels. If this series echoes that one, it won’t just mean the premature end of a season in which the Red Sox appeared to be the best team in the American League, it will mean the end of Ortiz’s Hall of Fame-worthy career. Ortiz is literally playing for his baseball life in Game 3. Look alive: The Indians have attempted just two stolen base in this series, but they are nonetheless running wild on the Red Sox, taking the extra base at nearly every opportunity. By my count, a Cleveland runner took two bases on a single or on a one-base error six times in the first two games, leading to five of the Indians’ 11 runs. Of their two steal attempts, one was by Mike Napoli, of all people, and that was a successful delayed steal on a pitch in the dirt. In the first two games, the Indians, to a man, appeared to be alert and on their toes, taking advantage of every opportunity and forcing the action, while the Red Sox, who appeared mortified in the latter innings of Game 2 and admitted as much after the game, seemed to be back on their heels. That has to change for Boston in this game or there won’t be a Game 4.
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