Red Sox-Indians ALDS prediction roundup: Boston hopes to avoid a Showalter moment from John Farrell
COMMENTARY
Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter has already made himself <i>the</i> story of this baseball postseason, all of two games into the annual October tournament.
Showalter’s decision to keep the best relief pitcher in the game, Zach Britton, in the bullpen during Tuesday night’s Wild Card game against the Toronto Blue Jays helped lead to a disastrous finish for the O’s, eliminated by either a managerial brain freeze or the farcical closer “code” that has seemingly been manufactured in dugouts everywhere.
The blunder gave Red Sox fans a hearty laugh, if not some less-than-fond memories of Grady Little.
But they also hope that they won’t be able to empathize with Orioles fans at some point over the coming weeks.
As the Sox prepare to take on the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, manager John Farrell and closer Craig Kimbrel loom as enormous X factors for Boston. Oh, Farrell is going to win Manager of the Year for leading them team back to a division title after spending the last two years in the basement. The fact that he did it on a rebound from cancer only solidifies the choice.
But in a five-game, seven-game series, his in-game managerial maneuvers will be put to a greater test, and that’s the worry. Particularly against Indians manager Terry Francona.
Kimbrel didn’t exactly finish the regular season exhibiting a lot of confidence, and his inability to perform in non-save situations is a concerning aspect for these Red Sox, particularly after watching the Britton situation earlier this week. If the games against the Indians do become bullpen-reliant, Cleveland is going to soar with Andrew Miller and closer Cody Allen.
The Red Sox desperately need early leads against the Indians, putting the load on the best offense in baseball to soar in the postseason, and make the game easier for Farrell to handle.
There’s always room for some manager to make a dumber move than Showalter this month. Pray it isn’t Farrell.
The Picks
Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe: Red Sox in four. “The Indians lost the season series with Boston, 4-2, but they never lost more than three games in a row all season, they won 14 straight in June to pull away from the other AL Central contenders, and they went 21-11 to end the season. However, the loss of their Nos. 2 and 3 starters, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, presents manager Terry Francona with a major challenge.”
Michael Silverman, Boston Herald: Red Sox in five. “This will not be a cakewalk. The Indians’ offense is formidable, their bullpen is better than the Red Sox, they play their best at home, and the Red Sox enter in a lull. Still, the Sox offense will seize advantage of the Indians’ shallow rotation.”
ESPN staff: Five pick the Cleveland Indians; 27 others pick the Boston Red Sox.
Danny Knobler, Bleacher Report: “Cleveland was at one point as popular a pick as this year’s Mets, the team that could ride young power pitching to October success. That was before injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar left its postseason rotation plans in flux. When Carrasco was lost for the season on Sept. 17 with a broken bone in his right hand, veteran Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes wrote this on Cleveland.com: ‘The Indians were eliminated from serious postseason advancement before they even got there.’
Harsh, but possibly true, and it says here the Red Sox will advance.”
CBS sports.com staff: Jonah Keri, R.J. Anderson, Mike Axisa, and Matt Snyder pick the Sox. Dayn Perry picks the Indians. Writes Axisa: “Almost unanimous! Only one of us doesn’t think the Red Sox will win the best-of-five ALDS in four games. Given our track record with such things, perhaps you should put your money on the Indians.”
NJ.com staff: Four out of five pick the Red Sox.
Jesse Spector, Sporting News: Red Sox. “Trevor Bauer is overmatched by the Red Sox in Game 1 of the division series, Corey Kluber is off after having missed his final regular-season start with a strained quad and Josh Tomlin gets pounded around Fenway in Game 3, leaving Cleveland still without a win in a postseason game since 2007, and miserable about the late-season injuries to Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Kluber.”
Rich Griffith, Toronto Star: Indians in five. “The Indians have Francona, who is a post-season beast. Farrell coached under Francona for years and will never be as good. Francona is likely still more popular at Fenway than Farrell.”
Max Wildstein, hardballscoop.com: Red Sox. “The Indians are sort-of short-handed in the playoffs, as members of their pitching staff have gone down with injuries. The Red Sox are the more “healthy” team and have the momentum going their way. It would be great if both ALDS series went five games.”
Ken Davidoff, New York Post: Indians in five. “Because they have the home-field advantage that will come in particularly handy in the win-or-go-home finale. Because they run a pretty good lineup out there themselves, and because they have been dealing all season with massive injuries and even multiple suspensions for failed drug tests. Because Red Sox Game 2 starter David Price has a monkey on his back due to previous postseason struggles and the Boston rotation runs pretty shallow after that.”
It says here: Red Sox in four: All the worries about Price and Kimbrel sound an awfully lot like Derek Lowe in 2004. That turned out OK.
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