Nine Innings: Pedroia’s season is similar to his ’08 MVP year, but he has no shot at winning now
Also: Tim Tebow will be hard-pressed to match Michael Jordan's baseball exploits.
COMMENTARY
Playing nine innings while looking up how to say “welcome back, Koji, the eighth inning is all yours” in Japanese …
1. Steve Lyons, in his usual nonsensically earnest Steve Lyons way, tried to make the point during Tuesday’s NESN broadcast that Dustin Pedroia’s numbers this season are very similar to his stellar stats in 2008, when he was named the American League’s Most Valuable Player, and thus that should mean he ought to be a candidate for the award this year. Well, no. Pedroia is having a wonderful season — he’s actually hitting .326, just as he did in ’08 — but part of the reason that he won the award eight years ago is that it was fairly thin pool of candidates. Justin Morneau of the Twins and Pedroia’s teammate Kevin Youkilis finished second and third, and an argument can be made that Youk should have won. This year, though, there are two better candidates on Pedroia’s own team — Mookie Betts and David Ortiz — as well as 4-5 other players around the league with a strong case, among them Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado. Pedroia was outstanding in 2008, and he’s been outstanding this year. But Pedroia, who is tied for 10th in the AL in offensive WAR (5.3) with Francisco Lindor and George Springer, is worthy of down-ballot votes, not serious consideration.
2. Betts was the AL Player of the Month in July, slashing .368/.415/.653 with 5 homers and 15 RBIs. He was even better in August (.378/.414/.672, 9 homers, 27 RBIs), but wasn’t a repeat monthly winner due to Gary Sanchez doing his Kevin Maas/Shane Spencer thing with the Yankees. He’s off to a slow start in September (.231/.276/.269), but should he heat up here to something in the ballpark of his July/August performance, he should be an obvious choice as the AL MVP, presuming the Red Sox don’t collapse around him like they did for Jacoby Ellsbury in September 2011. By the way, Betts has a league-best 322 total bases this season. Reaching 400 would seem a long shot … but then again, he did accumulate 80 alone just last month.
3. I really haven’t wavered from this despite some of the early recurring frustrations of his first season with the Red Sox, but I’ll reiterate it anyway now that he looks like what he was supposed to be all along: I’ll take David Price as my starter over Rick Porcello in the wild-card game, a one-game playoff for the division title, a seventh game in a deeper series, any matchup of consequence, really. Porcello has been exceptional this season: He’ll go for his 20th win in his next start, and he’s already set a career high for strikeouts. But Price is the more accomplished pitcher, and perhaps we didn’t notice because he’s held to such a high standard, but he has a slightly better FIP (3.34 to 3.52) than Porcello. It’s a pleasant choice to have, and such decisions will probably be made on how the rotation lines up and nothing more elaborate. It’s funny, Porcello is the one who has one degree of separation from Jon Lester — Lester left in a trade for Yoenis Cespedes, who was months later moved for Porcello — but Price has reminded me of him a lot lately with his vicious efficiency.
4. I’m going to go out on a limb and presume that Tim Tebow won’t quite make Keith Law’s list of top Mets prospects for 2017. Here’s how the ESPN prospect maven replied in his chat the other day when a reader attempted to evaluate Tebow’s recent workout:
A washed-up quarterback who can’t even square up 88 mph in a workout isn’t even as good as your bearish report would even imply. He’s an absolute zero, a 29-year-old with a 20 hit tool, and shame on everyone involved in this charade – including any team that might be foolish enough to sign him.
Right, but what do you really think, Keith? Hey, I can’t fault the Mets for signing him — he’ll be an attraction/sideshow at some minor league level next season, he should be a good influence on younger players, and, hey, this is an organization that gave more than 3,200 major-league plate appearances to Rey Ordonez. The bar isn’t that high. I can tell you one bar Tebow won’t clear, though — he’s never going to hit over .200 with 30-plus steals and 50-plus walks in Double A. Michael Jordan’s sabbatical as a Birmingham Baron is treated as a punch line, but in truth, doing what he did at a high level and with limited experience was nothing short of remarkable.
5. Craig Kimbrel has been inexplicably brutal in non-save situations the past three seasons, though he still strikes out nearly a batter and a half per inning. But he does have a 2.43 ERA in that role over his career, and given that the eighth inning and various other situations have been a baseball-themed hellscape in the season’s second half, the Red Sox need to keep running him out there in those spots until the hiccup goes away. They’re going to need him to do more than get three outs at a time with a lead should they advance beyond the wild-card round.
6. John Farrell might lead American League managers in bewildering moves this season, but bringing in Kimbrel in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth against the A’s Sunday should not count among them. At that point, you don’t worry about who will save the game when you get the lead. You first must worry about getting the lead, and at that point on the road, it’s all about extending the game any way you can to get another half-inning at the plate. Kimbrel is their best relief pitcher by far, and though it didn’t work, he was the best bet to get the three necessary outs to allow the Red Sox to bat again.
7. Brock Holt is a fine utility infielder, one of the best I can recall the Red Sox having on their roster through the years. But it’s time to stop pretending his skill-set includes capable outfield play. He’s the worst defensive left fielder I can recall seeing, non-Ramirez division, since Kevin Youkilis took his last lumbering spin out there in 2009.
8. A dozen years from now, when 33-year-olds Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are vying for their seventh MVP award between them, D’Angelo Ortiz is submitting a stellar rookie season for his dad’s old team, and the Montreal Rays are challenging the Red Sox for the division title, Clay Buchholz will still have a place on the roster, and he’ll still be teetering between redemption and exasperation with every start. It’s who he is, it’s what he does, and we’d better realize he’s never leaving now, so we can come to grips with it. Hell, yes, they’re picking up that $13 million option. And they should.
9. In my many years of correspondence with Red Sox fans, I’m confident in saying that no player’s name has been spelled wrong more often than Buchholz’s, and that includes Arquímedez Pozo. The back-to-back “h” thing has been a real stumper. But he’s getting some competition this year. Given that Yoan Moncada was the best prospect in minor league baseball midway this season, you’d think we’d realize by now that it’s not Moncado (I see you, Ordway) or Moancada. And that concludes today’s patronizing Red Sox name spelling lesson.
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