Porcello or Price? Picking a starter for a one-game playoff game isn’t a simple task
COMMENTARY
This really shouldn’t even be a debate.
This is the consensus, only growing after Monday’s 9-4 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, giving Red Sox starter Rick Porcello his major league-leading 18th win of the season: If indeed the Red Sox, two games in back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East, with the same cushion over the Baltimore Orioles for the top wild card spot, are forced to play in a one-game playoff for the right to move on to the division series, Porcello, not $217 million ace David Price, should get the start.
Irrefutably.
Right?
Of course, if the game is played somewhere other than Fenway Park, it should be Price’s ball. But even in the confines of the Red Sox’ home park, there still has to be some pause about putting faith in Porcello in a win-or-go home affair. Yes, he’s 13-0 in Boston this season, and has suddenly — seriously— injected himself into the Cy Young Award discussion.
But despite the success, Porcello isn’t going to deliver domination in a setting that calls for it.
There’s the general view that Price’s first season in Boston has been a disappointment, which is really an assessment that could have been made in May, but not now. Over the last 30 days, Price has been just as good as Porcello (both pitchers are 4-1; Porcello with a 2.62 ERA, Price, 2.93) and he’s now 13-8 with a 3.97 ERA, the first time his earned run average has been below 4.00 since Opening Day. In fact, Price’s 3.7 WAR is ahead of Porcello (3.6). The Red Sox also happen to be the only team in the AL with three starting pitchers (Steven Wright, 3.0) in the top 10 WAR. Price is sixth, Porcello seventh, Wright 10th.
Porcello has that perfection at home though with a 3.03 ERA. It’s a place where Price has gone 8-3 with a 4.17 ERA.
There’s also the fact that Boston is 20-7 in games in which Porcello has started. The Red Sox are 53-51 in all other games.
That’s not indicative of what Price, Wright, or even Drew Pomeranz (2-1 with a 2.40 ERA in August) have given the Red Sox in the starting rotation more than it is statement of a bullpen ripe for implosion, if not manager John Farrell’s clumsy inability to manage the arms within it.
Porcello is 5-3 in 13 starts on the road with a 3.49 ERA. Price is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA. If the wild card game took place at Camden Yards, it’s a place where Porcello gave up five runs over six innings earlier this year, and is only 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in his career. Price is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in Baltimore this season, 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his career.
No doubt it’s Price in that scenario.
Porcello obviously has a good amount of history in Detroit, and with the Tigers only a game behind the Orioles, Comerica Park looms as another possible site for a one-game playoff. The righty is 37-29 with a 4.53 ERA at his old stomping grounds, a place that Price also called home during the 2014-15 seasons. He’s 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA in Detroit.
Decision, Price.
At Fenway, this becomes an entirely different debate, yet not one that should slant significantly in Porcello’s favor because of his hometown purity.
But there are other factors to consider in naming a starter for said game, particularly looking forward to which guy would get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS, which, as it stands now, would take place in Texas, where the 78-win Rangers lead the American League. If Price gets the call in the wild card game, Porcello would go at Rangers Ballpark, where he’s 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in his career. Price has a 7.68 ERA in Texas over seven games and 34 innings pitched. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings there earlier this year, surrendering 12 hits and six earned runs in what was generally regarded as his worst start of the year. The Sox ended up winning the game, 8-7. Price still hasn’t lost there since 2012.
Porcello hasn’t pitched in Texas since 2014, when he threw a complete-game, three-hit shutout as a member of the Tigers.
That’s all getting ahead of ourselves, of course. Unless you want to consider that Porcello is 1-0 with a 7.50 ERA at Wrigley Field over his career, while Price has never pitched there.
Who gets the nod in Game 1 of the World Series?
Thanks to its 4-2 win over the National League in last month’s All-Star Game, the American League has home-field advantage, which means the series would start at Fenway Park, putting us in a similar predicament.
Porcello or Price?
Ah, hell.
Just win the division.
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