Mookie Betts has been carrying the Red Sox, but he’s (probably) not the AL MVP (yet)
COMMENTARY
This isn’t totally unexpected.
It was as early as spring training when there were some whispers of Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts potentially emerging as a candidate for American League Most Valuable Player. Still, coming off an 18-home run, 77-RBI season during which he hit .291 with an .820 OPS in 2015, it still seemed a long shot that the 23-year-old would be able to put together a season of numbers to rival those of Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Edwin Encarnacion, or Josh Donaldson.
Wrong.
“It’s fun to watch the guys play like that. Mookie, he’s the best player in the game right now,” Red Sox reliever Brad Ziegler said. “Everybody stops to watch him hit.”
With his 27th and 28th home runs Tuesday night against the Baltimore Orioles, a team he has carved up better than Ryan Lochte can an international incident, Betts is now on pace to hit 38 this season. That’s only four more than league-leader Encarnacion has now for the first-place Toronto Blue Jays, but Betts is also batting .034 points higher, and leads in OPS, .930 to .912. Betts has also played a superb right field while Encarnacion has primarily been a designated hitter. Not that it should matter, but in a race this tight, it probably will.
Trout leads the AL with his 7.7 WAR, but Betts is closing in at 6.8, while Trout’s Los Angeles Angels are only 50-70, 21 games out in last place in the AL West. Jose Altuve is just ahead of Betts with a 7.0 WAR, and is leading the league in hitting with a .364 average. His 1.000 OPS only trails David Ortiz, who leads the way at 1.025. Altuve’s Houston Astros are also 10 games out of first in the West, and still 5 1/2 back in the wild card race.
Defending AL MVP Donaldson isn’t having the same year he had in 2015, but he’s still fourth in OPS (.954) and WAR (6.8). Ortiz will get some votes in his final season in the major leagues, but barring a September during which he carries the Sox on his back, he’s a fourth or fifth-place option. Plus, you know, the DH thing.
Besides, Betts has been the one carrying Boston for more than a month now.
Betts is hitting .375 over the last 30 days, .051 points more than even superhuman catcher Sandy Leon could manage. He’s got two more home runs (10) and seven more runs batted in (30) than Hanley Ramirez over that time. He’s posted a .417 on-base percentage and 2.2 WAR — more than twice that of Leon’s 1.0. He has a 1.278 OPS in August.
Maybe the Red Sox expected great things once Betts started emerging as an everyday major leaguer while with the Portland Sea Dogs only two years ago. But this?
Betts isn’t only emerging into a baseball superstar. He’s already become one.
This wouldn’t be like Dustin Pedroia’s somewhat-controversial MVP Award in 2008, when he led the AL in hits (213), runs (118), and doubles (54), but blasted only 17 home runs with an .869 OPS. He trailed Grady Sizemore in WAR, 6.3 to 7.4.
He was also the last Red Sox player to win the award, joining Mo Vaughn, Roger Clemens, Jim Rice, Fred Lynn, Carl Yastrzemski, Jackie Jensen, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, and Tris Speaker.
Add Mookie to the list?
ESPN’s Dan Szymborski broke down the chances “based on stat lines, player position and team standing, and then run through a rest-of-the-season simulation.” Whether a team makes the playoffs is an important factor in MVP voting (but these percentages do not use WAR), so Betts’ odds have gone up.
But not enough. Szymborski still has Trout as the odds-on favorite to win the MVP, at 17.9 percent. Betts is second at 14.3, followed by Altuve (13.4) and Ortiz (13.1). Enacarnacion (10 percent) and Donaldson (8.1) are fifth and sixth, respectively. (Szymborski also has Rick Porcello at a 3.7 percent chance to win the AL Cy Young Award though, so what does he know?)
Frankly, maybe it should be Altuve as the favorite right now anyway. But with so many candidates, and the Astros on the outskirts of the postseason, the Red Sox playing in October could swing a few votes Betts’ way, if not Encarnacion and/or Donaldson as well.
But if Betts keeps up the pace he’s been on the last month, MVP shouldn’t be a question.
“You know, we play the game to win a World Series, so I’m just trying to do that,” Betts said. “All the other stuff can come and go, whatever, but my main focus right now is just to make the playoffs and win a World Series.”
Who would have thought?
Who are the Red Sox’ all time statistical leaders?
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