Starting pitching is a problem, but the Red Sox also need a bat like Jonathan Lucroy
COMMENTARY
The Red Sox don’t have the best starting rotation in the world. By WAR, they rank 11th out of 15 American League teams. By ERA, they rank ninth. As such, the consensus is that they should target starting pitching come the trade deadline. And if such starting pitchers come cheap, sure. But chances are they won’t. Which is fine. What they should do is target more hitting. Specifically, they should target Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
The Red Sox offense has been majestic this season. But it can be even more so, and with each upgrade they make, the effect can be exponential. An article written by Jesse Wolfersberger in June 2014 at The Hardball Times explains why:
“The exponential nature of offense means a good hitter in a good lineup is worth more than that same hitter in a bad lineup. On a good offense, that hitter is more likely to come to the plate with more runners on, more likely to get driven in once he’s on base. And, the lineup turns over more often, meaning he gets more plate appearances. Not only is he more valuable to a good lineup, but he’s even more valuable to a better one – the effect builds on itself.”
So, from there, we should look to where the Sox should be looking to upgrade most. Using wRC+ by position as a measure, we see that as of Monday, the team ranked first in the AL at shortstop and designated hitter, second in center field, third at second base and fifth in right field. The Sox are good at those positions. In left field, they’re tied for 12th, and they’re 12th at first and third base. And they rank 13th at catcher.
Judging by AL ranks is somewhat misleading here though. While Travis Shaw and Hanley Ramirez may not be performing well relative to their league, their actual numbers are much better than the catchers’ have been, where the bar for performance is incredibly low. Shaw has hit for a 102 wRC+, while Ramirez is at 97 and catcher Christian Vazquez is at 42. Put another way, Shaw and Ramirez have hit 60 and 55 percent better than Vazquez, respectively. Furthermore, with Brock Holt hopefully returning soon, and Ramirez showing signs of life at the dish, these are positions that may see some improvement soon.
Jonathan Lucroy, on the other hand, has posted a 123 wRC+ this season. Hitting 23 percent above league average is pretty good for any position, but it’s excellent for a catcher. Of the 39 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances as of Monday, Lucroy’s 123 wRC+ ranks third, while Vazquez’s 42 wRC+ ranks 38th. I spoke with Wolfersberger about this, and he calculates that the Red Sox would score six percent more runs per game simply by swapping out Vazquez for Lucroy.
To put that into context, let’s look at the flip side. The Red Sox are projected to allow a 3.93 ERA for the remainder of the season, per FanGraphs. In order to get a six percent decrease, you’d need to replace that 3.93 ERA with a pitcher who could toss a 2.00 ERA for 100 innings. If you think there’s a pitcher like this that’s going to be available in trade this season, I’d love to hear about him, because I don’t see it. There are only six pitchers rocking an ERA close to 2.00 or better – Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner, and Jon Lester, and none of them will be available in trade. If you’d like to engage in some Jose Fernandez wishcasting, that’d be the only comp, but with the Marlins contending, there’s absolutely no indication that they’re going to make him available. In fact, they seem intent on being buyers at the moment.
Of course, the Red Sox will have to field a very competitive offer if they want to pry Lucroy away. Vazquez and/or Blake Swihart would surely be a part of it, but given their diminished value, likely not the central part. With the Brewers relatively thick with young outfielders (Ramon Flores, Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips) you can bet they’re not as interested in Andrew Benintendi as other teams might. But one of Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers is going to be very interesting to the Brewers, who have a great shortstop prospect in Orlando Arcia, but not as much talent at second and third base. The Red Sox would obviously prefer to keep both players, but with Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts not going anywhere, they may only be able to play one of Moncada and Devers in the infield anyway. Beyond them, starting pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza figures to be part of the discussion as well.
Lucroy is a fantastic catcher who is signed for $4 million this year and $5.2 million next year. He is just as good at pitch framing, pitch calling, and the defensive elements of baseball as Vazquez is, and is a far, far better hitter. The package for him is going to have to be impressive. A package of Devers, Espinoza, Vazquez and maybe a couple of high-ceiling, low-probability fliers would put the Red Sox in a good position to land Lucroy (and a reliever like Will Smith or Jeremy Jeffress).
Getting Jonathan Lucroy won’t come cheaply for the Red Sox. But for a team in need of upgrades, acquiring him is the biggest possible upgrade the team can make. Consensus says that the team should look for pitching, but the Sox should go against the grain and keep upgrading its offense.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com