James Shields seemed a good fit for pitching-needy Boston, so where were the Red Sox?
COMMENTARY
The Red Sox were 15-10, coming off a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees that throttled them into the top position in the American League East early last month, when they headed to Chicago to face the 18-8, first-place White Sox for the first time this season.
Boston is 18-14 since, and currently knocked out of the division lead following Baltimore’s 4-1 win over the Kansas City Royals Monday night.
The same is true of the White Sox, except that Chicago has tumbled to third place in the AL Central, 3 1/2 games behind the Cleveland Indians, after a wretched stretch that has seen the team manage to go only 11-20 since May 3.
Unlike the Red Sox, the White Sox have struggled on offense, scoring more than 100 runs fewer (229 vs. 336) than Boston’s machine has managed over the season’s first 57 games.
Unlike the Red Sox, the White Sox have what has been to this point the AL’s best pitching staff, anchored by ace Chris Sale, with a 3.61 staff ERA. Boston, 1-4 in June with a 7.12 team ERA, ranks 12th in the league at 4.38.
So, naturally, it was the White Sox who went and made the season’s biggest move for a starting pitcher over the weekend.
Nobody is suggesting that James Shields is going to go to Chicago and manage what David Price did for the Blue Jays last season (9-1, 2.30 ERA) or what Randy Johnson did for the Houston Astros (10-1, 1.28 ERA) after the Seattle Mariners traded him during the summer of 1998. But the former San Diego Padre, Kansas City Royal, and Tampa Bay Ray does add another dependable dimension to a contender’s rotation already strengthened by the presences of surefire Cy Young winner Sale and Jose Quintana.
In other words, he’s exactly the kind of arm the Red Sox could desperately use.
Yeah, there’s no explanation why Shields was such a disaster in San Diego, where he went 15-14 with a 4.00 ERA after the Padres gave him a four-year, $75 million contract for some reason last offseason. He gave up 33 home runs in 2015, this despite playing in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. His last start in a Padres uniform, a week ago against the Seattle Mariners, was a train wreck, allowing 10 earned runs over only 2 2/3 innings, a performance that apparently scared off some interests trading parties, and possibly decreased the cost to acquire him.
In landing Shields, the White Sox surrendered Fernando Tatis Jr., a 17-year-old shortstop that ranked 30th on MLB’s list of top international prospects last year, and 26-year-old pitcher Erik Johnson, whose value ultimately whittled down to little after managing a 7-6 mark with a 4.50 ERA over parts of four major league seasons.
This would essentially be like the Red Sox trading the likes of 17-year-old Albert Guaimaro and Joe Kelly for the 34-year-old Shields. While it doesn’t exactly carry the same weight of satisfaction that the rumored Pablo Sandoval-for-Shields deal would have brought just prior to the season, it would still drastically improve Boston’s beleaguered rotation.
Nor is the contract a concern, as the Padres are sending Chicago about $31 million of the $58 million remaining on Shield’s deal. Shields can opt-out at year’s end (not bloody likely), but the White Sox essentially have him for the next 2 1/2 seasons for $27 million.
The Red Sox will pay Rick Porcello somewhere around $50 million between now and the end of the 2018 season for being a No. 3 starter.
Now, seeing how Padres president and CEO Mike Dee understands the financial workings of the Red Sox front office, where he spent seven years working under Larry Luchhino and developing Fenway Sports Group, such a sweetheart deal might not have been in the same cards for Boston. And $58 million for a guy like Shields isn’t exactly an intriguing option for a team already saddled with reams of useless dollars going to the likes of Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, and Allen Craig.
But San Diego wouldn’t consider taking on one of those albatrosses in lieu of giving the White Sox a $31 million check?
Shields was 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA in his last go-round in the American League in 2014, taking the Royals to the World Series. He’s 114-90 in the AL, but is also 2-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his career at Fenway Park. He’ll give you 200 innings and 30-plus starts like clockwork; unspectacular, but more often than not like the putrid outing that forced him out of San Diego.
That’s the kind of guy the Red Sox need, somebody completely average who manages to pitch to his potential, something, it seems, nobody in the Red Sox rotation can manage to accomplish.
While David Price has a 2.62 ERA since Dustin Pedroia played pitching coach, he’s been nothing like the bona fide ace the Red Sox are paying him to be over the next few years. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a concern after his first two starts off the disabled list, delivering an OK performance at Baltimore, and a four-hitter against the Blue Jays Sunday, when he allowed five earned runs on four home runs. Porcello was a new man in April (5-0, 2.76 ERA), but has been the guy who made Red Sox fans squirm last year (2-2, 5.11) ever since. Steven Wright’s knuckleball has been the biggest summer blockbuster this side of “Captain America,” but with swelling uncertainty if it can maintain its effectiveness another four months.
Shields might have just as much trouble winning games in offensively-challenged Chicago, certainly more than he would in Boston, where merely being effective is means to a victory. In eight of his 11 starts in San Diego, Shields allowed three or fewer runs. Price has managed that in eight of his 12 starts this season. They have mirroring 2-7 and 7-2 records.
Then there’s the matter that Shields likely wouldn’t have cost Rafael Devers or Yoan Moncada, premium pieces of the farm system that will come into less-than-illustrious trade discussions for guys like Rich Hill and Sonny Gray now that Blake Swihart is on the disabled list, Pawtucket first baseman Sam Travis is out for season with a knee injury, Henry Owens has morphed into Matt Young, and Brian Johnson is off dealing with issues related to anxiety.
The solution shouldn’t have to come to that.
James Shields isn’t perfect, but he’s just what Boston needed, at seemingly the right cost.
So, exactly where were the Red Sox when the Padres gave him away?
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