How good can Steven Wright be until his knuckleball bubble bursts?
COMMENTARY
To think, if Eduardo Rodriguez hadn’t caught a spike in the Florida grass and dislocated his kneecap back in February, we would not have gotten to witness what could turn out to be one of the most assertive stretches of Red Sox starting pitching in a generation.
Steven Wright might instead be honing his craft in the Boston bullpen or, more likely, starting for Triple A Pawtucket, receiving praise for his consistency, but without anyone understanding his worth to the major league roster. This, after all, was a 31-year-old knuckleballer who had managed only a 64-61 record in the minor leagues. His 3.72 ERA was nice, but didn’t exactly indicate how much the Red Sox could depend on the maturity of his pitch.
Whatever the front office and manager John Farrell thought of him, Wright was never earmarked for the major league starting rotation heading into spring training.
Yet, here he is in 2016, coming off yet another dazzling outing on Sunday night against the New York Yankees, earning his third win with a three-hit complete game. It was the third straight start in which Wright has allowed three hits. The knuckleball has flummoxed opposing batter to the degree that Wright has allowed only seven earned runs all season.
To put that into some perspective, $217 million staff “ace” David Price has allowed six earned runs in back-to-back starts against the Yankees, not to mention the eight runs he gave up to the Tampa Bay Rays on April 21. In his last four starts, Price has surrendered 22 runs, more than three times the amount the Red Sox’ de facto No. 5 starter has given up in six starts thus far.
Wright has been dominant, playing a pivotal role in the 1-2 punch with Rick Porcello that has had the Red Sox’ rotation thriving despite terrible starts by Price and Clay Buchholz. He’s sixth in the American League among starters with a 1.52 ERA, and, with those numbers, could be 6-0 on the season.
“I think his pitching is speaking loud and clear,” Farrell said after Sunday’s 5-1 win over the Yankees, salvaging the final game of the three-game series in New York. “In a word, he’s been extremely dependable. You have a pretty good sense of what he’s going to give you each time he walks to the mound, and tonight, as good as he’s pitched, this one he was in complete control here tonight.”
So. When does the bubble burst?
No, Wright isn’t going anywhere once Rodriguez (who wasn’t great in a rehab start for Pawtucket on Sunday, allowing six hits — two home runs — and three runs over 5 2/3 innings) comes back to the big league club as soon as this week. Sean O’Sullivan, who figures to sub for the demoted Henry Owens on Tuesday, may just be a placeholder until Rodriguez’s next turn in the rotation comes up.
The Red Sox will have a more complicated decision to make once Joe Kelly, who figures to start for Pawtucket this week, is ready to return to Boston. Barring an injury to another pitcher opening up a starting spot, the team faces the probability that the hard-throwing righty will, finally, have to accept a trip to the bullpen. Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez are mainstays. Buchholz shouldn’t, but he will be, as the Red Sox eagerly await his next good start sometime in June in order to calm the hysteria once again.
Wright should have been the easy call to be replaced by Rodriguez or Kelly. Instead, he’s more likely to be mentioned in the same breath as R.A. Dickey, the only knuckleballer to win the Cy Young Award.
Dickey is 40-41 with a 4.02 ERA for the Blue Jays since going 20-6 for the New York Mets in 2012. The 41-year-old is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA this season for Toronto.
Clearly, the knuckleball torch, which tends to flame only periodically, has been passed to Wright, a pitcher 10 years Dickey’s junior, who is going on the sort of run we tend to see only every handful of years. We’ve seen this sort of thing in Boston, of course, when Tim Wakefield burst on the scene with the Red Sox in 1995, going 14-1 with a 1.65 ERA over his first 17 starts.
Wakefield’s last 10 starts that season: 2-7, 5.60 ERA.
He still finished third in the Cy Young voting, and it just happened to be the beginning of a 17-year career in Boston. Whether starting or closing, Wakefield became one of baseball history’s most dependable knuckleball pitchers.
But there was never a stretch that matched what he was able to do in 1995.
Dickey wasn’t able to maintain the dominance he brewed in 2012.
Nor in all likelihood will Wright in 2016.
That’s the seeming nature of the knuckleball pitcher, confounding hitters one month, only to find his scheduled start bypassed two months down the road.
Right now, Wright leads the team with a 1.6 WAR. Price is the worst at -0.7. Neither of those statuses will remain intact by the heart of the season.
“I mean his ball always moves everywhere — he’s just, right now he’s locked in. He’s tough to hit, man,” Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia said, presumably in between his video scouting sessions on Price. “It’s in the strike zone, and I mean he’s just dancing everywhere. Not much you can do offensively when he’s on.”
He’s definitely on.
But, realistically, for how long?
Forgotten Red Sox All-Stars
[bdc-gallery id=”141804″]
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com