Second thought: Dombrowski is obligated to at least consider trading Pedroia
COMMENTARY
As fun as the Red Sox have been over the last several weeks – relative to how they performed over the wretched first several months especially – there’s not a whole lot of suspense to be found as the season wanes toward its final innings.
I suppose there’s some interest in Xander Bogaerts’s quest to finish second in the American League batting race (or first in the non-Miggy division), or the Red Sox’ pursuit of the sinking-sinking-submerged Orioles for the all-important fourth-place-finisher designation. And some nights – most nights lately, it seems — David Ortiz delivers a home run and perhaps even achieves a career milestone.
But even those of us who require no excuse to watch whatsoever beyond, “Hey, the Sox are on,’’ recognize the truth. The real suspense will not be found in the season’s final days, but in the many days after the season is complete.
Dave Dombrowski is the new baseball boss in town, and he brought with him upon his arrival in mid-August a reputation as someone who leaned old-school in his philosophies and has a knack for winning trades. He’s a wheeler-dealer, and the Red Sox – with three promising young outfielders of various tools and achievements, a half-dozen starting pitchers who have a case that they should be in the rotation next year despite nary a sure-thing among them, and arguably the richest farm system in baseball (a hell of a thoughtful housewarming gift from Ben Cherington) – are set up to do some wheeling and dealing.
It’s not just likely based on their roster construction and Dombrowski’s previous approaches to team-building. It’s imperative. That he’ll make trades … well, that’s no mystery. But there is plenty of suspense – and perhaps even surprise – regarding which players he will trade.
Remember, he arrives with no obligations other than to make the ballclub better. He was not part of the organization when Bogaerts was discovered in Aruba or Mookie Betts was heisted in the fifth round in 2011 out of a Tennessee high school, and he sure as hell didn’t trade for Rick Porcello or sign Hanley Ramirez.
I don’t think Dombrowki is willing to do anything– I’d be staggered if he traded Bogaerts, who is going to be battling Carlos Correa for All-Star berths and Silver Slugger awards for a decade. Betts is probably close to untouchable. But it’s also a fair bet that Dombrowski is going to do something that none of us see coming.
In a conscious attempt to do just that – to see it coming – my crystal ball keeps offering the same conjectured hunch.
I wonder if he’s going to try to trade Dustin Pedroia.
In a sense, attempting to do so would make sense. A lot of sense. Pedroia is still a beloved Red Sox player, much as Nomar Garciaparra was a decade-and-a-half ago. (I don’t have the analytics on this, but I’m fairly certain there are a lot of pets in New England named Pedey.)
He’s productive when healthy and he still plays a spectacular second base. He’s a talented gamer, perceived as a winner, a former Most Valuable Player, and he just turned 32. His contract? It’s long – a six-year, $84 million extension kicks in next year – but hardly pricey given his ability. And compared to Robinson Cano’s deal – he’s due $184 million through age 40 – it’s a downright bargain.
So why deal him — or again, attempt to, since he has a no-trade and would need to sign off on any deal? Ironically, because a lot of his strengths are also his weaknesses. He’s a spectacular second baseman – but second basemen take a beating and tend to decline rapidly and prematurely. His most similar career statistical comps include the likes of Jose Vidro and Carlos Baerga, both of whom were done as productive players in their early 30s. His fearless, occasionally reckless, play isn’t going to lead to a prolonged career. Go ask Kevin Youkilis about that.
Perceived as a winner? Well, he has two championship rings and plays his hardest to win every moment he is on the field. But he also has a .247 batting average in 44 postseason games. And weirdly, the Red Sox are 15 games under .500 when he plays this year (33-48). He wants to win, always, and he has won plenty. But the fictional Jeterian superpower of “Born Winner’’ would not apply even if it were real, quantifiable thing rather than an old sportswriter’s crutch.
It might be tough for Red Sox fans who own well-worn No. 15 Red Sox shirseys to think of Pedroia playing elsewhere. Perhaps he never will. But Rockies fans probably figured the same about Troy Tulowitzki at one point, and Pedroia’s fellow 2007 rookie of the year became a Blue Jay this year before the rumor of a potential trade could even advance to a whisper.
It happens, and it happens fast, and the truth is that Dombrowki wouldn’t be doing his job if he doesn’t find out what appeal and value Pedroia has around the rest of baseball. In an offseason that could be marked with surprises, consider this your advance warning: as jarring as it would be to see Dustin Pedroia in another uniform, it would hardly be a revelation to see his name attached to some juicy trade rumors once this crucial and fascinating offseason begins.
Photos: This is what Fenway Park used to look like
[bdc-gallery id=”115689″]
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com