The last thing the 2016 Red Sox need: The return of David Ortiz
COMMENTARY
On June 9, David Ortiz was hitting .219 with six home runs and 21 RBI. He had an OBP of .297, a slugging percentage of .372, and OPS of .670.
Since June 9, Ortiz has hit .292 with 19 homers and 47 RBI. He has an OBP of .393, a slugging percentage of .630, and OPS of .1.023.
On June 9, the last-place Red Sox had a record of 27-32.
Since June 9, the last-place Red Sox have a record of 23-32.
But because of bad acquisitions, a few injuries, and over-estimations and underperformances by the front office and his teammates, Ortiz has provided minimal impact of the fortunes of the Red Sox.
Need proof?
•Through August 11, when the Sox are ahead in a game, Ortiz has hit .248 with 12 homers and 25 RBI.
•When the score is tied, his BA is slightly better at .254, but he’s hit just four homers with 15 RBI.
•When the Sox are trailing (which is quite frequently), Ortiz has hit .246 with seven homers and 25 RBI.
•But here’s the sad reality: in 49 late and close at bats, defined as plate appearances in the 7th inning or later with the Sox tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck, Ortiz is hitting just .204 with three homers and seven RBI.
The Red Sox season was over by the All-Star break, and Ortiz’s bat was MIA:
He struggled, hitting .231
•.145 from the 7th inning on, 0-23 with runners in scoring position from the 7th inning on
•.201 with men on base
•.147 with runners in scoring position
•.214 with two outs
•.094 with two outs and runners in scoring position
A 40-year old dedicated designated hitter, who cannot play the field, is a luxury the Red Sox can no longer afford.
Moreover, Ortiz has become a detriment…and that’s not all his fault.
His current role was to be part of the big three in the Sox lineup: Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval. And while there have been variables, the 3-4-5 batters in the Sox lineup have hit .255, 11th in the AL. They have hit 53 home runs with 186 RBI, each eighth in the American League. Their OPS is .753, 12th in the AL. All of which means that the expected offense from this threesome has come nowhere near the production that was considered necessary to compensate for a pitching staff that is weak in just about every aspect.
Let’s go from offense to defense
Unfortunately, Ortiz is a detriment because he is preventing the flexibility that Red Sox need in order to attempt to improve.
Ortiz has appeared in five games at first base this season, too small a sample to make any judgment, but the consensus is that if Ortiz played more frequently, both his defensive and physical liabilities would show. So forget his defensive metrics, Ortiz only plays the field when the Sox are in an NL park and there is no DH.
As for Sandoval and Ramirez –
According to the Bill James site (apropos for this discussion), Sandoval’s Total Runs Saved is -13 and he ranks 35th amongst all the third basemen, while Hanley’s Total Runs Saved is -17 and he ranks 35th amongst all left fielders.
And that’s where Ortiz becomes the problem.
Think of the Sox as a parked car. Flush up against the front bumper is the Sandoval car, flush up against the back bumper is the Hanley car, and double-parked next to the Sox car is the Papi-mobile and they can’t get out of the parking space known as “last place.’’
Ramirez is a terrible fielder wherever he plays, and Sandoval’s fielding is not what it has been. It would be terrific to keep their bats in the lineup by utilizing one or the other as a DH and in the process improve the team defense which in the process would help the weak pitching, but manager John Farrell can’t do that because of the presence of Ortiz.
Where does that leave the Red Sox for 2016?
Right now, the Sox have cleared “obstacles’’ like Sandy Leon, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, and Mike Napoli in order to give some of their hallowed prospects the opportunities to show their skills and get some big league experience.
You get the feeling that GM Ben Cherington would be willing to eat crow and a lot of cash to move either Hanley or Pablo, but their value is limited so we have to assume they will be back this coming season…along with Ortiz.
This past Saturday evening, a vesting clause in Ortiz’s contract kicked in and, and Ortiz will be returning for 2016. If he reaches 600 plate appearances, his 2016 salary will be the same $16 million he is being paid this season. His contract calls for $12 million for 475 plate appearances, $13 million for 525 plate appearances, $14 million for 550 plate appearances, and $15 million for 575 plate appearances. And, Ortiz has the same deal for 2017.
And good luck to Farrell if he tries to bench Ortiz now that he has 500 home runs in sight. So, it may come down to Farrell confronting Ortiz and dealing with a recalcitrant Big Papi, or some other manager doing it because there are no reasons to expect that as Ortiz ages he will regain the bat he had when he was younger
The bottom line
None of us really care how much money of John Henry’s money goes to Ortiz; fans just want their Sox to be successful. And since 2009, we have only seen Ortiz in the postseason once, his very remarkable 2013 performance.
And we could all enjoy the twilight of the big man’s career if it were not for the bad signings of Sandoval and Ramirez and a team that is short at least four quality pitchers.
Sandoval is making $17.6 million in 2016 and 2017 (and that goes up a million in 2018 and 2019) and Ramirez is making $22.75 million for each of the next three seasons.
This means that the price for these three for next season looks like it will be over $56 million. Then, add $11.27 million for Rusney Castillo, $13 million for Dustin Pedroia, and $20.12 million for Rick Porcello, and the Sox have over $100 million tied up in six under-producing players. And if you want to add Clay Buchholz, you have over $113 million for seven under-producing players. It’s only then can you think about adding Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jeff Samardzija, and/or Jordan Zimmerman.
And that brings us to a history lesson.
Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner, from 1946-1953, his first seven seasons in the major leagues, led the National League in home runs each year.
The following June, Kiner, who had been involved in salary disputes with the Bucs, was sent to Cubs in a ten-player trade. The Pirates general manager Branch Rickey is reported to have told Kiner, “We finished last with you and we can finish last without you.’’
The Red Sox have finished last with Big Papi, and they can finish last without him.
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