An overdue appreciation of Shane Victorino
The news of Shane Victorino’s departure from the Red Sox got left behind in the 40-yard dash to write the most sizzling takes about the latest plot twists in Deflategate (ooh, a “destroyed’’ phone!) and whether the Red Sox would do anything at the trading deadline to remedy this long drag of a season (with apologies to Ryan Cook and his closest loved ones, they most definitely did not).
So consider this a slightly overdue but necessary appreciation of Victorino’s three-year run with the Red Sox, which can be split up into one marvelous season (2013) and two marked by fits and starts and hobbles and limps.
But please, also consider it to be reasonable argument that Victorino was worth every last dollar the Red Sox paid him over those three seasons, even if he and the team spent their last two seasons together making a mutual habit of pulling up lame.
There was some debate after the Red Sox traded him to the Angels for a slab of organizational fodder named Josh Rutledge last Monday as to whether or not they got the franchise got its money’s worth on his deal.
The Red Sox will have paid Victorino $37.9 million when his three-year contract expires at season’s end, what with the Angels picking up just $1.1 million of the remaining payout on the deal.
That seems a steep stack of cash for a player who was productive in just one year of the three seasons – Victorino has played just 63 games over the past two seasons due to a myriad of injuries.
And he didn’t hit much post-2013. In 217 at-bats since the beginning of the ’14 season, he has hit just .258 with three homers and seven stolen bases. He was barely around, and when he was around, he was barely noticeable.
The Red Sox didn’t just lose Jacoby Ellsbury after the ’13 season. For all intents and purposes, they lost Victorino too, the departure/absence of their 1-2 hitters is a significant if far from the only reason why the 2014-15 seasons have also been lost.
But no matter. His recent absences – and, bluntly, his general irrelevance when he is in the lineup — doesn’t change the truth.
He was worth what the Red Sox paid him over those three seasons – yes, even if he was effective for just one. We can start by looking at it with emotional detachment and simply noting this:
According to Fangraphs’ Win Values measure (which puts a dollar value on a win above replacement and is explained in detail here) Victorino’s on-field performance during his nearly three seasons with the Red Sox was worth $45.6 million, or $7.7 million more than the Red Sox will pay him.
Curious how that breaks down by season? Check this out, in reverse order:
2015: $1 million.
2014: $400,000.
Have you done the math yet? No? OK …
2013: $44.2 million!
Perhaps you are one of those in-my-day-all-we-needed-was-RBIs! types who are skeptical of and maybe a little bewildered by advanced metrics and the concept of slapping a dollar sign on a player’s performance based on WAR, a number that isn’t even a counting stat, for pete’s sake.
(The sabermetrically-averse like to say “for Pete’s sake’’ almost as much as they like to say “in my day’’ and “WAR – what is it good for?’’ It’s true. There have been studies.)
Again, I’d urge you to read the Fangraphs’ explanation of how these values are determined. But if you’re shouting “no player is worth that much, especially Shane Patrick Victorino!’’ I’d reply with two thoughts:
1. Mike Trout, a 10.4 fWAR player during the ‘13 season to Victorino’s 6.0, was worth $77.4 million by this measure. Also, Mike Trout is totally worth $77.4 million a year.
2. Kinda cool you knew Victorino’s middle name was Patrick.
But if the advanced metrics argument regarding what Victorino meant to the Red Sox in ’13 – when, I should note, he slashed .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers, 21 steals, and Gold Glove-winning defense in right field – doesn’t do it for you, consider the specifics and the aesthetics. Consider how he always rose to meet the occasion. Here, this might help.
After you do that, it’s easy to conclude that the 2013 Red Sox do not win the World Series – and do not reap the benefits, financial and otherwise, that come with that championship cachet – if Victorino had not seized the moment more than once when the spotlight was brightest.
Victorino delivered two of the Red Sox’ biggest hits during the 2013 postseason. The three-run double in Game 6 of the World Series all but secured the Red Sox’ third title in 10 seasons. Yet that wasn’t his biggest hit. His biggest hit is the one that got them to the World Series. His grand slam in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series — on an 0-2 count with two outs in the seventh inning while trailing by a run — propelled the Red Sox to their showdown with St. Louis.
His at-bat music – Bob Marley’s “Three Little Birds,’’ which organically became an everything’s-gonna-be-all-right October singalong at the old ballpark – was the perfect lyrical accompaniment to that team’s it’ll-all-work-out-in-the-end approach. And his reaction when his grand slam cleared the wall – pounding his chest, jumping up and down while he rounded first base – was the perfect visual combination of joy and don’t-ever-doubt-us defiance, another trait that seemed universal on that lovable, long-gone Red Sox team.
Man, how could all of that have been just two seasons ago? Like so many of his teammates from that season – Ellsbury, Jon Lester, John Lackey, David Ross, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Johnny Gomes, Jake Peavy – his baseball journey has taken him away from Boston.
Victorino is a casualty of a lost and lousy season around here. It had to happen. The Red Sox need to find out whether Rusney Castillo can live up to his billing as … well, as a Shane Victorino-type.
We didn’t see much of Victorino after that brilliant first season. But he was so good then that by any measure, everything else that came after was worth it. Every little thing hasn’t been all right the last couple of years. Not much has, really. But man, did Victorino ever make sure the big things worked out in a way Red Sox fans will never forget. He’s been gone a week. We’ll remember what he did in October 2013 for generations.
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