Red Sox need some Impossible Magic to make a playoff push
COMMENTARY
What do Red Sox fans realistically expect?
On the one hand, the 2015 Sox are in the midst of an American League plagued by parity. Only six teams — Yankees, Royals, Angels, Twins, Astros, and Rays — can claim records above .500 heading into the post-All-Star break schedule. Only eight games separate the worst team in the league (Oakland, 41-50) with the top team in the two-tiered wild card race (Minnesota, 49-40). In the National League, that’s a 20-game separation between the dreadful Phillies (29-62) and wild card-leading Pittsburgh (53-35).
On the other hand, only two teams — the A’s and Mariners — and two games separate Boston (42-47) from possessing the worst record in the AL.
It’s a confounding situation indeed, but one that leaves both fans and front-office personnel with hope that the Red Sox can jump-start themselves right back into a pennant race.
The 6 1/2-game deficit the last-place Sox face in the AL East doesn’t seem insurmountable, unless you realize that manager John Farrell’s crew is only 17-27 against its division cousins, the primary reason, matchup-wise, why the Sox find themselves in this mess. In order to make a playoff push, they’ve got to do better than that against their immediate foes, something they managed to do marginally since the end of June, going 7-6 against the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Yankees.
Over the past 48 seasons, the Red Sox have made the playoffs only three times after trailing by six or more games at the break: 1967 (six games), 1988 (nine games), and 2004 (seven games), though it needs to be noted that the ’04 squad only managed to take the wild card en route to its World Series win. Pretty sure the wild card isn’t coming out of the East this season, barring some minor baseball miracle.
Essentially, it’s going to take a surge that would rank somewhere in between The Impossible Dream and Morgan Magic to find the Red Sox playing in October.
With this team? Good luck.
FanGraphs has the Sox ending the season at 81-81, finishing the year with a much-improved second-half run differential of plus-24. Boston’s minus-43 in the first half was the worst of any American League team outside of Chicago and Seattle.
As for the playoffs, the site gives Boston 23.2 percent chance of making the postseason, 9.5 percent via winning the division, 13.7 percent by a wild card.
In fact, the Sox have better playoff odds than both the Orioles (21.8 percent) and Rays (20.8 percent).
There’s life in the AL East for ya.
Game 90 is Friday night in Anaheim, where Wade Miley takes the hill after what has to be considered a satisfactory, if not spectacular first half of the season (8-8, 4.80). It was satisfying in that, well, what more did you expect, particularly from a guy who looked like John Wasdin during the first month of the season, threw a hissy in the dugout, and yet, still managed to already match his win total from last season?
The fact that he’s your No. 2, well, that matter needs some work.
Clay Buchholz is gone, and whether he ever comes back this season should be of concern based on the pitcher’s injury history and his laissez-faire approach to healing. Rick Porcello is an unmitigated disaster the likes of which we’ve never seen from a first-year Red Sox pitcher recently signed to a long-term deal. Which means, the season’s balance is going to lie on Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, and Miley.
Whether or not it’s the likes of potential trade targets Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija, or second-chances at rotation life for Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson tear eventually join them is going to depend largely on the left arms of two rookies and Wade Miley.
How do you like those chances?
Yes, since team owner John Henry gave his state of the union in early June, back when the Red Sox were scrambling at 22-29, the team has managed to scrape by with a 20-18 mark, somehow cutting almost five games in the standings at the same time. But that might have been false hope, particularly after a weekend series against the Yankees, one in which they could have done some damage, but fell on their collective faces with a mere win out of the three, losing Buchholz, physically, and perhaps David Ortiz, mentally, in the process.
Whether or not Ortiz plays first base from here on out isn’t the question, really. It’s whether or not he is, in fact, still emotionally in-check with the rebuilding Red Sox, or finally playing on the laurels of being a three-time World Series hero in Boston.
It’s kind of silly to assume it might be the latter, but then again, it’s also kind of foolhardy to think the Red Sox are going to make a run. And enough people seem to be doing that.
It would just take something historic from a team that has delivered no reason or hope that it can, or cares to, pull off such a stretch of winning.
Time to sell.
MLB’s All-New England team
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