Even if they’re not contenders, Red Sox should still pursue Cole Hamels
The suggested pursuit of accomplished Phillies left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels isn’t just one of the more familiar sidebars to this Red Sox season. It actually predates the season, and its origins can almost be pinpointed to the exact minute.
When, at approximately 1 a.m. on December 10, 2014, Jon Lester announced he was choosing the Cubs’ vastly superior contract offer over reuniting with the Red Sox … well, most New England baseball fans were in a deep snooze by then.
But when we awakened from our collective slumber a few hours later and cursed in unison at the news that the Cubs had landed the big one (even if they have not in several generations actually won the big one), the sun had not yet hit the pinnacle of its morning rise before many of us had turned our attention to perhaps Lester’s most similar contemporary.
If they can’t sign Lester, many among us figured, then wouldn’t trading for Hamels be a welcome consolation prize. The price in prospects would (and being fair to Philly, should) be steep, but at least he is signed to the contract (three years and $70.5 million beyond this season, with potential vesting and team options for 2019) that the Red Sox would have been happy to award Lester.
That’s a good deal. So hey, whaddaya say, Phillies? Let’s make a deal.
Well, here were are, six months after Lester chose to forsake a Boston homecoming for tens of millions of extra dollars and nearly four whole months after the season began, and there’s no deal to speak of, just the usual chronic, common-sense-based speculation.
The Red Sox, save for a few encouraging recent blips on the heart monitor, have been terrible. The Phillies, as has been the case since their core from their 2008 World Series championship team began declining, are somehow worse than terrible at 29-52, including 3-14 under interim manager Pete Mackanin.
And inexplicably, Hamels remains with the organization that drafted him in the first round out of a San Diego high school 13 years ago. He’s still excellent – he’s striking out more than a batter per inning – even backed by a hapless lineup in a hopeless situation. The Phillies should have commenced their rebuilding two seasons ago, if not longer. Perhaps now, with the competent Andy McPhail positioned to take over as team president at season’s end, the Phillies will deal their most appealing commodity sometime before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline comes and goes.
If the Phillies do make Hamels available, finally and at last, the Red Sox should be jostling for position at the front of the line. Yes, even considering their current state, five games below .500 at 42-47 and 6.5 games out of first place in the relentlessly mediocre American League East.
The Red Sox’ pursuit of Hamels should not change, even if the reason for doing so has.
Acquiring him wouldn’t be about this year, though that would certainly help a rotation that currently consists of Eduardo Rodriguez and four noodle arms who must be suffered until Eduardo Rodriguez’s turn comes around again.
I suppose it’s possible that the Red Sox linger on the fringes of the division race for a while, maybe even supply an encouraging victory or two that leads us to briefly believe they can become the first AL East team since the ’89 Blue Jays to overcome such a deficit at the All-Star break en route to winning the decision.
But the reality is that because of the lousy start, there is no margin for error. And this flawed roster – did I mention the putrid state of the starting rotation, which includes Wade Miley (4.80 ERA) making the first start of the second half? – requires a significant margin for error. “Farrell Magic’’ just doesn’t have a particularly encouraging believability to it, you know?
No, the reason they should be pursuing Hamels – or really, another high-quality, established starter being paid a fair wage, perhaps even including James Shields – is not for this season, but the next one and beyond.
For all that has gone annoyingly, agonizingly wrong with the 2015 Red Sox, there have been a couple of very important positive developments – the key word being developments.
Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts rank first and third, respectively, on the Red Sox in bWAR so far this season. They rank 11th and 33rd, respectively, on Fangraphs’ Trade Value ratings among all major league players, and I’d argue that Bogaerts, who has become a dependable defensive shortstop and marvelous hitter with runners on base, should be rated at least 10 spots closer to the top. They turn 23 within a week of each other in September. They are the present and the future and the best damn things about this season.
Neither should or will be included in a Hamels deal, and one suspects such a delusional asking price is why Hamels remains in Philadelphia. Perhaps another franchise – the Dodgers are always a suspect – will eventually give the Phillies a massive collection of young talent in exchange for Hamels. But the Red Sox, with a tier of intriguing prospects ascending in the low minors, has enough to make an enticing offer without including Betts, Bogaerts, or even Blake Swihart, who showed enough in a premature big-league trial. Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Manuel Margot rank as the Nos. 2-4 players in the organization according to SoxProspects.com. Only Margot, an outfielder, has reached Double A. He or Devers would make a fine starting point for a trade with the the Phillies, though they would surely dare to ask for both.
The Red Sox are going to need an ace when they are a genuine contender again, and that should be next year. Given how Betts and Bogaerts have developed, what they have become and what they are becoming, it’s apparent that they will be the faces of that next great Red Sox team. You don’t trade Betts or Bogaerts for an ace. You get the ace to give them the help they need.
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