David Ortiz and His Awful Aprils
Things were dire in Boston on April 15, 2010, when the Red Sox fell to 4-5 after a loss to the Minnesota Twins.
The afternoon before the game, 57 percent of voters in a Boston.com poll said Jeremy Hermida, hitting .357 with six RBIs after a red-hot spring, should be the Red Sox’ designated hitter. Twenty-nine percent wanted Mike Lowell in the job. Just 14 percent supported the incumbent, David Ortiz.
They had good reason: Ortiz was hitting a pitiful .154 over 29 plate appearances. He’d reached base just seven times (four hits, three walks) and struck out 13 times. He had two runs, two RBIs and no homers. A year before, he had a similarly awful April. By April 30, his average had fallen to .143. By May 31, those 86 percent of voters looked positively foolish: Ortiz had posted one of the best months of his career, tallying 10 homers, 16 runs and 27 RBIs to go with a .363 batting average. Hermida, hitting three points north of the Mendoza Line, was designated for assignment on July 31.
Now, Ortiz is coming off his worst April in five years. The power is there (four homers) but the average (.236) is not. Whether by lingering World Series goodwill, experience with his April slumps, or denial, Ortiz hasn’t seen any calls for his job. He’s put poor starts like this one behind him, but is there anything here to suggest this year will be different?
There are a few reasons for optimism this April compared to prior bad months, chief among them Big Papi’s plate discipline. Ortiz has walked in 14 percent of at-bats in April and struck out in 19.8. The latter number is a little high but far from alarming, and the former is both great and above his career marks. In April 2010, Ortiz walked in 11.1 percent of appearances and struck out in an even third; in 2009, he walked in just 8 percent and struck out in 22. The underlying numbers also paint a good picture: Ortiz is swinging at just 23.8 percent of pitches outside the zone, taking first-pitch strikes at a near-55 percent clip and whiffing a bit over ten percent of the time — all of these rates better than in past slumps and similar to his performances in his stronger recent years.
So if Ortiz is still profiling as a good hitter, why is he batting just .236? One culprit could be his batting average on balls in play. When he puts balls in play, he’s reaching base at just a .245 clip. That’s well below the number he posted in 2009 (a good thing, as it suggests a bigger rebound) as well as his career number of .301, which is just about league-average. He had a poor .256 BABIP in 2014 and so may not get back all the way, but should see improvement in this area. As he does, his average should rise.
Significant BABIP dips can come from changes in batted ball profile, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. Ortiz’s 21.1 percent line drive is one that would suggest a decent BABIP, further evidence that average should rise. Plus, he’s hitting liners at a rate three points better than last year. Otherwise he’s hitting grounders (36.8 percent this year vs. 35.9) and fly balls (42.1 vs. 44.0) at roughly career averages, pointing to a significant BABIP regression to career norms.
Power-wise, Ortiz has not so far been the slugger he was in recent seasons, let alone his heyday, but he’s also been much better in this slump than in previous. He hit four homers in April this year against just one in 2009 and 2010 combined. His ISO — a measure of power that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage — was .208 in April 2015, down a few ticks from his career .261 and last year’s .255, but significantly better than his .143 and .103 in 2010 and 2009 respectively.
It’s possible the mild power drain will hold, as Ortiz is hitting the ball an average distance of 286 feet according to baseballheatmaps.com. His average distance was 297 feet last year and about 302 feet in 2013, so he’s so far hit the ball with less authority than years prior. Baseballheatmaps’ charts don’t separate by month, though, so it’s unknown whether Ortiz adds distance as the season goes on. Regardless, Papi’s 286 foot distance is nothing to be concerned about.
Ortiz has not looked himself so far in 2015, but his start to this year has not been nearly as bad as it was his other poor Aprils. That said, age-related skill erosion has to hit at some point, so the rebound may not be as strong as those of years past. Still, there’s little here to suggest April is anything more than a speedbump on the way to another great year from Big Papi.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com