Could Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz Be Busts in 2015?
While the Red Sox starting rotation has been subject to endless questions this offseason, it’s been assumed the offense would do its job — and quite well, at that.
Given the team’s veteran core, its surging youngsters, and top-shelf acquisitions, there’s reason for optimism. But there are two big, surprising reasons for pause: David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez.
Fangraphs projects the pair to account for six Wins Above Replacement between them, but these two Red Sox cornerstones represent possibly the biggest questions outside the rotation.
No one can argue Ramirez isn’t a productive hitter. He’s a bonafide star, and even in a down 2014 managed a slash line of .283/.369/.448. When Ramirez is in the lineup, he’s as valuable a hitter as most anyone not named Trout, Cabrera or McCutchen. But therein lies the problem: Ramirez has missed a lot of time lately.
In nine seasons since his two-game debut with the Red Sox in 2005, Ramirez has played more than 150 games just five times. Four of those came between 2006 and 2009, with just one (2012) coming in the last five years. He scarcely played half the 2013 season, appearing in just 86 games, and last year was healthy for just 128. In the last four years, he’s missed a whopping 185 games.
Hanley’s list of career injuries reads like a physical therapy check-in form: he’s bruised his finger and thumb, suffered from a sore calf and shoulder, strained his oblique, torn a ligament in his thumb and fractured a rib. Entering his age 31 season, it’s unlikely Ramirez suddenly becomes more durable. Ramirez has been injury free this spring, but given his recent history, the injury question seems more “when’’ than “if.’’
Fortunately, the Red Sox appear have the outfield depth to survive the inevitable Ramirez absence. But should both Ramirez and Ortiz fail to meet expectations, 2015 could be a disappointment.
Ortiz has been an iron man by comparison to Ramirez, falling short of 600 plate appearances just once in the past six seasons. And despite his age (Ortiz turned 39 in November), his bat has seen little drop in potency from his prime. But an age-related decline is inevitable, and a close look at his 2014 stats suggests it may have begun.
The Dominican slugger tallied 35 home runs last year, the first time he hit that mark since 2007, when he finished fourth in AL MVP voting and took home his fourth straight Silver Slugger. But in every other metric, Ortiz was a much poorer hitter in 2014 than he was the season before, let alone eight years ago.
In the most glaring example, Ortiz lost 46 points on his average, ending the season at a middling .263, his first sub-.300 season since 2010. That drop in average is explained by his batted ball profile, which similarly explains the uptick in power. Ortiz’s line drive rate dropped nearly five points from 22.6 in 2013 to 17.7 last season. His ground ball rate dropped a hair to 36.6 and his fly ball rate rose seven points to 45.7. Line drives become hits most often and fly balls the least, with grounders falling in between. The same 17.9 percent of fly balls that left the yard in 2013 did so again in 2014, explaining the jump in power. But if the long ball is to stay, it will come at the expense of line drives and thus, average.
Ortiz’s overall walk and strikeout rates (12.5 and 15.8) last season were each a hair worse in 2014 than they were the year prior, but they declined as the season wore on. In the second half Ortiz walked in just 10.6 percent of appearances and struck out in 17.4; those numbers rose to 7.9 and 22.2 respectively in September and October. Either late-season walk rate would be the slugger’s worst in over a decade, and either strikeout rate a five-year high.
Still, Ortiz managed a 2.3 WAR last season, proving one of the most valuable Red Sox again. But he’ll be 39 this season, and there aren’t many guys that age or older who maintain that sort of production.
Since 1980, players 39 or older have posted WARs of 2.3 or higher in a season just fifteen times. Now, just 30 guys age 39 or older have actually played an inning of pro ball in that span – comprising 55 seasons – but the odds of Ortiz matching his 2014 are nonetheless long.
It’s entirely possible Ortiz plays better than he did in 2014, and even if he simply matches those numbers, he’ll be an asset for the Red Sox. But if his rate stats skew close to his late-season numbers from 2014, this season could be the beginning of the end. Between a potentially diminished Ortiz and the fragile Ramirez, the Red Sox have two big “ifs’’ in the heart of the order.
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