Road to 700 Runs: Hitting at Fenway Is Critical

Last season, the Red Sox averaged 3.91 runs per game, the same as the Mariners and the Yankees. Do you remember how each of those teams did in the postseason? Probably not, because none of them made it. Of the 10 teams that reached the postseason last year only the Cardinals (3.82) scored fewer runs per game than this trio of teams, of all of whom have hopes for the 2015 postseason.

The goal for each of these teams is to up their production by at least a half a run per game because 4.32 RPG gives you a 700-run season…and scoring begins at home.

“A lyric little bandbox of a ballpark”

It was John Updike in his classic 1960 New Yorker magazine article about Ted Williams’ final game who masterfully wrote:

“Fenway Park, in Boston, is a lyric little bandbox of a ballpark. Everything is painted green and seems in curiously sharp focus, like the inside of an old-fashioned peeping-type Easter egg. It was built in 1912 and rebuilt in 1934, and offers, as do most Boston artifacts, a compromise between Man’s Euclidean determinations and Nature’s beguiling irregularities. Its right field is one of the deepest in the American League, while its left field is the shortest; the high left-field wall, three hundred and fifteen feet from home plate along the foul line, virtually thrusts its surface at right-handed hitters.”

Over the years, the Red Sox have built their team, for better or worse, around the quirks of their home field.

Big picture – 2014 – Red Sox 34-47 at Home

Last season in the American League, the Sox were eighth in scoring and OPS at home, 14th in homers at home, 11th in slugging and total bases at home, and, as an aside, hit into the second most double plays at home. For the most part only the pitching and defense rich Royals at home were the only AL playoff team who had lower numbers in the offensive categories.

Last season, the Red Sox hit 49 homers at Fenway Park.

I want to pause to let that sink in.

Not getting it yet?

How about this? In 2013, the Red Sox hit 83 homers at Fenway Park. And in 2012, they hit 88. And in 2011, they hit 91. And in 2010, they hit 98. And in 2009, they hit 114.

In fact, there have been 73 seasons that the Red Sox hit more homers at Fenway than they did in 2014. In 1944, the Sox hit 48 homers at home and they only played 78 Fenway games that year as opposed to the 81 played in 2014.

Point made?

Wait, there’s more.

And it gets worse.

The Red Sox scored 324 runs in 81 games at Fenway last season.

That’s the same number of runs they scored in 76 games in 1915. And yes, that was the Dead Ball era. The 324 runs are the fewest the Sox ever scored in 81 games at Fenway.

Told you it got worse.

Let’s talk doubles

Between balls hit off the Monster, balls hit into the alleys, and balls bouncing into the stands in right, Fenway is made for doubles.

There have been 12 teams since 1914 that have had 200+ doubles hit at home and the Sox have five of them including a record setting 218 two-baggers in 2004.

The Sox invariably lead the league in doubles at home:

• In 2014, the Sox led the AL with 171 home doubles.
• In 2013, the Sox led the AL with 205 home doubles.
• In 2012, the Sox led the AL with 211 home doubles.
• In 2011, the Sox led the AL with 199 home doubles.
• In 2010, the Sox led the AL with 189 home doubles.
• In 2009, the Sox led the AL with 198 home doubles.
• In 2008, the Sox led the AL with 211 home doubles.
• In 2007, the Sox led the AL with 191 home doubles.

You catch my drift.

But you can also see that their doubles production at Fenway fell in 2014. The Sox have had 29 seasons in which they hit more doubles at home.

Lefties at Fenway

Want a stunning stat?

The lefty who hit the second most homers for the Red Sox at Fenway last season was Stephen Drew who hit two.

Red Sox lefties hit all of 17 homers at home last season and David Ortiz hit 11 of them. The other four were hit by A.J. Pierzynski, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Brock Holt, and Garin Cecchini.

The Sox lefties did hit 78 doubles at home last year, but that’s down from 116 in 2013, and 104 in 2012.

And I can go on and on about that decline, but you get the gist.

Let’s talk players

David Ortiz – the big lefty
Okay, I’m a little Henny Penny (of “the sky is falling” fame) on Big Papi. Last season at Fenway, Ortiz hit 11 homers at home, the fewest of his Red Sox career. He had 18 doubles in 71 games, his fewest since he had 17 in 2005 in 55 games. He hit .268 last season; 2009 was the only season when he had a lower home Red Sox BA when he .263. His .849 home OPS still good, but it was lowest of his Sox career.

Other lefties at Fenway in 2014
• Jackie Bradley Jr. – .211 with one homer and 20 RBI
• Brock Holt – .290 with one homer and 20 RBI
• Daniel Nava (switch hitter) – .284 with no homers and 15 RBI

Pablo Sandoval is a switch-hitter and, as if you didn’t know, Blake Swihart, who is off to Pawtucket, is also a switch-hitter.

Righties at Fenway in 2014
• Rusney Castillo – .400 with two homers and six RBI
• Christian Vazquez – .286 with one homer and 10 RBI
• Mookie Betts – .278 with one homer and seven RBI
• Mike Napoli – .273 with six homers and 29 RBI
• Dustin Pedroia – .268 with two homers and 27 RBI
• Shane Victorino – .261 with one homer and four RBI
• Xander Bogaerts – .259 with seven homers and 24 RBI
• Daniel Nava (as righty) – .167 with no homers and three RBI
• Allen Craig – .152 with no homers and no RBI

Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Hanigan are righties as well.

GPS to 700

The road to postseason is paved with 700+ runs and it is a necessity when your pitching staff is a question mark like Boston’s.

For the Sox to reach the postseason and those 700 runs they are going to have to hear “Dirty Water” as frequently as possible and that means Fenway runs…and lots of them.