22-Year-Old Projected to Be Red Sox’ Best Position Player
The Red Sox’ youngest position player could be the team’s best in 2015 , according to analysts Baseball Prospectus.
At 3.6 projected Wins Above Replacement, 22-year-old Mookie Betts is tops among Red Sox position players in the advanced metric. Pedroia and rookie Rusney Castillo clock in at 3.5, with new Red Sox Hanley Ramirez (3.4) and veteran David Ortiz (3.1) rounding out the top five.
WAR is a statistic that attempts to gauge a player’s overall impact on his team’s success by weighting hitting, baserunning, defense and other stats in a complicated formula.
Betts’ projection is based on his getting 470 plate appearances in right field and about 120 more in center, most of them as leadoff hitter. The projection isn’t too surprising given his .291/.368/.444 2014 slash line and solid defense, but it comes with one caveat: two weeks out of spring training, the youngster isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot.
If the roster remains as currently constituted through opening day, Betts will be part of a crowded outfield that includes shortstop convert Ramirez, Allen Craig, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Castillo. Still, Betts’ skill should earn him a regular spot alongside Castillo and Ramirez.
Xander Bogaerts, just six days Betts’ junior, is projected at 2.2 WAR for 2015. The shortstop took a slump-filled step back in 2014 after proving an asset during the World Series campaign, but has the tools to terrorize pro pitching should he hit his stride. Top minor-league catching prospect Blake Swihart, who is expected to spend most of the season in AAA Pawtucket, is projected at just .1 WAR. Likewise, third-baseman Garin Cecchini’s (.1 WAR) path to the everyday work in the majors is blocked by new acquisition Pablo Sandoval (2.5 WAR).
Pedroia is a prime candidate to outperform his projection, as he claims he’s finally healthy after battling hand injuries the last few seasons. Pedroia’s defense has never been a question, but his power has dwindled to the tune of just 16 homers over more than 1,300 plate appearances in 2013 and 2014.
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