Have We Seen the Best of Dustin Pedroia?

I try to stay as independent in my baseball thinking as possible. I try to be objective and neutral as I evaluate players and teams, and for the most part I’m pretty successful. But I fail when it comes to Dustin Pedroia. I admit it: I love Dustin Pedroia. I’ve admitted this before and I get nothing but understanding.

Dustin is the player you want for your team. It’s not just that he’s a steady hitter and a great fielder, but he’s the guy who does it all for your team.

Back in 2008, the redoubtable Bill James was asked which player he would like to be compared to. James responded:

“I must be missing something. Why wouldn’t everyone want to be Dustin Pedroia?”

I’m with him. James’s colleague John Dewan, the foremost expert on fielding, has given Pedroia The Fielding Bible Award at second base in each of the last three years and in 2013 was the AL Defensive Player of the Year.

Pedroia is all that and more.
• He’s the guy who takes a little jump before every pitch is delivered so that he can be on his toes.
• He’s the guy who has seen the Red Sox use 24 different shortstops since he’s become a regular at second base.
• He’s the guy whose uniform is filthy before the first pitch of the game.

If you’re familiar with “Charlie Kelly” on It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, played by Merrimack College alum Charlie Day, you’ll agree me that while some ballplayers have that matinee idol look, Pedroia is Charlie. He’s the ballplayer who does “Charlie Work” which according to the fictional Charlie: “Well, Charlie Work is, like, you know… like basement stuff, cleaning urinals, uh, blood stuff, your basic slimes, your sludges, anything dead, or decay, you know – I’m on it, I’m dealing with it.”

But doing Charlie Work takes its toll, and Pedroia has consistently battled injuries the past few seasons:
• In the three seasons from 2007-09, Pedroia played 450 games and hit .313 with 141 doubles, 40 homers and 205 RBI. His OBP was .375 and his OPS was .838. He walked 171 times, whiffed 139 times and stole 47 bases and was caught 10 times.
• Playing injured, in the three seasons from 2012-14, Pedroia played 436 games and hit .290 with 114 doubles, 31 homers and 202 RBI. His OBP was .353 and his OPS was .767. He walked 172 times, whiffed 210 times and stole 43 bases and was caught 17 times.

As you can see, with the exception of walks, which are about the same, Pedroia has gotten worse in each category. It’s most evident in his power numbers which we can attribute to his hand injuries, but you can’t expect those numbers to rebound as much any more because of the age factor.

Pedroia is 31 and won’t be 32 until August. For most players in the post-steroid era, that’s still prime time, but second basemen seem to age faster than most other players.

Over the last five seasons, there have been 12 second basemen who have played a total of 18 seasons aged 31-plus.

Four of those guys had 15+ homer seasons. Dan Uggla, who was released by two teams last season at 34, did it three times. Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips did it twice and last season, Ian Kinsler (age 32) hit 16 homers, the same total as Pedroia hit, the last two years combined. As recently as 2012, Pedroia homered once every 37.5 AB. The last two seasons have seen him homer once every 71.2 and every 78.7 at bats.

Last season, Pedroia slugged .376, his first season as a regular that he dropped below .400. His slugging has dropped each season since 2010. Last season, 31-year old Robinson Cano slugged .454 and 32-year old Ian Kinsler slugged .420. They were the only two second basemen aged 31+ slugging over .375 last season and it’s only been done by six players since 2010.

In three seasons, from 2009-11, Dustin Pedroia grounded in 38 double plays in 346 opportunities, a rate of 11%. Over the last two seasons, Pedey grounded into 38 double plays in 293 opportunities, a rate of 13%. His .240 BA with runners in scoring position last season was the lowest in his career since he became a regular.

Here are the two stats that I find most distressing:
• The Sox spark plug hit .328 in 2013 when leading off an inning but only .228 last season.
• The other number is equally as disturbing: last season hitting with RISP with two outs, Pedroia was 6-54, a .111 average.

But I believe in Pedroia

I’m not the only one who has faith in Pedey.

Speaking last week with Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin, on MLB Network Radio, manager John Farrell said, “To have him pain-free or without restriction, we feel like there’s going to be a return of the ability to drive the baseball as he’s done in the past. And I know that he’s confident.”

In the 2015 Bill James Handbook, the brilliant one projects Pedroia in 2015 hitting .290 with 41 doubles, 12 homers, and a .782 OPS with 64 walks, 75 whiffs, and a .361 OBP.

I only assume that Dustin Pedroia’s Charlie Work is one stat that even James can’t measure.