No Dodging This Development: Jon Lester Isn’t Coming Back If Los Angeles Is Involved

If it is indeed true that the Los Angeles Dodgers have thrown their hat into the Jon Lester sweepstakes, Boston might as well say a collective, permanent goodbye.

He’s not coming back.

According to WEEI.com, the Dodgers have expressed “serious interest” in the free agent, left-handed pitcher, with one source under the impression that Los Angeles had already made him an offer. Let the speculation begin as to how stratospheric that number could be.

Ace Clayton Kershaw signed a seven-year, $180 million dollar extension with the team last January, an average annual value of $25.7 million.

Zack Greinke inked a six-year, $147 million contract in 2012, an AAV of $24.5 million.

It stands to reason that the Dodgers’ offer to Lester would hover somewhere in the same range, potentially giving L.A. a nasty 1-2-3 top of the starting rotation, including the notable influx of a characteristic that Kershaw, for all his dynamic traits, has been lacking.

Postseason credibility.

It’s been 26 years since the Dodgers last won the World Series, but they’re clearly on the cusp. Still, they’ve yet to be able to make the unexpected hurdle of their star player’s incompetence in the postseason. Kershaw is a ridiculous 98-49 with a 2.48 ERA during the regular season, but only 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA once teams whip out the bunting. Lester, of course, has won a pair of titles in no small part thanks to his 6-4, 2.57 playoff line, including a 3-0 record in the World Series with a 0.43 ERA.

He’s perfect for the Dodgers.

Is Los Angeles perfect for Lester? A big ballpark, National League lineups, old friends in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and $150-$180 million certainly put it atop the conversation. Buddy Josh Beckett probably has some kind words about the Chavez Ravine experience as well.

You’d be foolish to think the Red Sox would be willing to match or surpass any offer from the Dodgers, who step over the luxury tax as if it were dirty penny on the sidewalk. The Dodgers, with their $8 billion TV contract, had a payroll of $235,684,934 in 2014, won’t be paying $16 million to Hanley Ramirez in 2015, and face the possibility that Greinke can opt out of his deal after the season (He’s due to make $25 million in ’15, $26 million in ’16, $25 million in ’17, and $26 million in ’18). Lester would give them some insurance that their staff will remain stable even in the unlikely nature that Greinke (17-8, 2.71 ERA in ’14) thinks he can get a better deal on the open market at the age of 32.

The Red Sox’ latest offer to Lester was reportedly around $130 million over six years, an AAV of $21.7 million. While that’s a far cry from the four-year, $70 million the team offered him in spring training, there still has to be a general question if the Red Sox really even want him that badly to begin with. All told, it was well-speculated as Lester approached free agency that he’d probably make somewhere around $150 million on the open market. If the Sox made an offer just below that, they could at least make face and throw their hands in the air with a, “hey, we tried” message to a fan base thirsting for the lefty’s return. Principal owner John Henry made his thoughts about signing 30-year-old pitchers to long-term deals very clear last summer. A few months later he’s going to do an about-face and give a guy who will be 31 years of age six years and $25 million per?

If it doesn’t sound fishy, it’s mainly because fans aren’t doing the thinking with the commitment of their wallets in tow. Lester is as durable as they come, making an average of 34 starts a season over his nine-year major league career. He’s failed to post double-digit wins only in the Bobby Valentine farcical campaign (9-14, 4.82), but rebounded the next two seasons to win 31 games, including another title. Despite the fears, there’s every reason to commit to him long term not to even mention the familiarity both sides have for one another.

But he’s about to break the bank, and if it’s not with the Dodgers, perhaps you heard the percolating reports that the Yankees are about to get involved. If those two teams start a bidding war, is it daft to reason that the number may quickly approach $200 million?

We wondered how fascinating it might be to watch former Tampa Bay Rays general manager Andrew Friedman take over in Los Angeles with a cash flow that is in every way the antithesis of what he dealt with in Florida. He might come out of the gate reeling in the offseason’s top catch.

The bidding is poised to get silly, and the Red Sox will be no part of it. He’s gone, and there are two possible outcomes.1. The Red Sox simply move on with their offseason plan on moving on without Lester, who they didn’t realistically think was coming back anyway. 2. Like a jilted lover they give Max Scherzer somewhere in the range of $160 million with the hopes of flaunting him at the postseason dance.

Unless the Dodgers want him too, in which case, we’re left talking about Cole Hamels and Jeff Samardzija to anchor a pitching staff in complete disarray.

But you might as well let Lester go now.