Hey, Boston: Why Don’t You Want the Panda?

Count me in.

There seems to be a growing movement among Red Sox fans who just want to say, “no” to the Red Sox’ pursuit of free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

What’s the deal?

Yes, there are red flags everywhere in regards to signing Sandoval, who was in Boston Tuesday for his wine-and-dine session with the Sox brass, not the least of which is the fact that it might take a $100 million commitment to land the career .294 hitter with eye-catching postseason numbers (.344, .935 OPS). Put it this way, if catcher Russell Martin, who will be a 32 years old by next season, got five years and $82 million from the Blue Jays, what is it going to take for a guy coming off a third World Series ring?

He’s seen as a weight risk, what with being all of 5-foot-11 and listed at 245 pounds, but he’s proven a nimble ability to cover third base, and should slide into the vacant designated hitter role for Boston once David Ortiz’s Juan Ponce de León brand water supply dries up.

There’s also the Red Sox’ recent track record in signing free agents to hefty (no pun intended), long-term contracts. But at some point you’ve got to get over the fear of a Carl Crawford Redux. Crawford was an historically awful idea from the start, beginning with the fact that he wasn’t even a fit on the Red Sox, who already had Jacoby Ellsbury patrolling center field.

This is completely different. The Red Sox have a gaping hole at third, unless you’re counting on the unexpected resurrection of Will Middlebrooks’ future, as well as the need for a left-handed presence in the everyday lineup. Sandoval is only 28 and heading into the prime of his career, and the switch-hitter’s inside-out swing makes him a natural for Fenway Park.

I know, this is where we get ahead of ourselves with spray charts and projections, and deem that Sandoval would hit 45 home runs in Fenway based on his home-road splits at San Francisco’s AT&T Park and the rest of the National League. Nope. He’s probably going to give you what his average year looks like, hitting around .290 with 16-20 home runs and 75-80 runs batted in. We made the same mistake with Adrian Gonzalez, whom everybody assumed would thrive as a power hitter in Fenway. The fact is, he hit only 18 of his 58 home runs in his time in Boston at home.

Sandoval would be looked at as more of a gap hitter anyway, and his charts show a significant ability to thrive in that aspect at Fenway. Courtesy of gammonsdaily.com, here’s a look at Sandoval’s career.

That doesn’t reveal from which side of the plate the results are born, but the amount of green in left field as opposed to right is intriguing. That would seem to suggest a healthy amount of doubles off the wall, which one might imagine Sandoval could utilize to the degree that many left-handed batters seem to eschew in favor of losing balls in the park’s deep right field. We’re not going to suggest he’d be Wade Boggs, albeit with a little more pop, but for a guy who’s never played in the Fens, it will be interesting to hear his reaction after touring the grounds during his visit.

But here’s the real reason I think Red Sox fans are so cool on Sandoval. If you spend $100 million on the Panda, what’s left for Jon Lester?

The real answer: Plenty. The answer the Red Sox might give you might not be one you want to hear.

It’s conceivable that after a second last-place finish over the last three years that the Red Sox are intent on not only going “all in” on Sandoval, as one major league executive hinted to last week, but Lester as well. Peter Gammons went on WEEI Tuesday morning and said that the Chicago Cubs, long thought a suitor for Lester’s services, believe the free agent lefty is headed back to a familiar turf.

“I get the feeling the Cubs think he’s going to go back to Boston. I think it’s very smart for Lester and his agents to hold for another week. I think there is a feeling it is going to go past Thanksgiving, maybe into the first week into December and the hope is that the Yankees look at that starting rotation and they think — I mean how do they know [Masahiro] Tanaka, [Michael] Pineda and [Ivan] Nova are going to be healthy next year and they start thinking about, ‘OK, we have great bullpen, but…’

“That is Red Sox ownership’s worst nightmare — the Yankees and Theo Epstein negotiating against them. But, after spring training when [Lester’s agents] ACES told them [they would see what the market bears], they are finding out the market is going to bare more than they ever imagined.”

Now, think about that if you’re the Red Sox, already with an aversion to signing pitchers at the age of 30 to long-term deals. If they have to get into a bidding war for Lester, and have already dished out a $100 million commitment to Sandoval, aren’t the odds going to be a whole lot greater that they simply decide to walk away and open the door on (yuck) James Shields?

Sandoval shouldn’t play into that decision, but you just get the feeling his price might force the Red Sox into making other choices.

But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t pursue him either. He’s a marketing dream (perhaps to an annoying extent) for the team and NESN and, more importantly, he fills a baseball need. He’d be a great addition, but you’re absolutely right to fear that the cost is going to be stratospheric, especially with the Giants trying to lure back the popular player.

Will that limit what else the Red Sox do? Thanks to the luxury tax, it has in the past.

But it sure as hell shouldn’t.

Yes, the Panda campaign will be cutesy and nauseating, but from a baseball perspective, it’s hard to imagine that Sandoval wouldn’t find a perfect marriage in Boston. Then again, if the Red Sox use Sandoval as an excuse for why the other guy isn’t here, it’s going to be a disingenuous message.

I’m still in, even knowing the cost is going to be something stupid.

It had just better be even stupider for Lester.