Excited About the Prospect of James Shields Joining the Red Sox? Hell, No

If you’ve been paying any attention to the World Series – preferably on mute to escape the inanities of Fox analyst Harold Reynolds, who almost makes one pine for Tim McCarver – you witnessed Red Sox pitching past and possible future on display for both the Kansas City Royals and the San Francisco Giants in Games 1 and 2 this week.

It was old friend Jake Peavy starting for the Giants Wednesday night, a game won by the Royals, 7-2, to even the series at a game apiece. In the opener, it was Kansas City ace James Shields, a free agent this year, and a presumed target for the Red Sox this offseason, as they look to rebuild a rotation that was decimated prior to last July’s trading deadline.

Both stunk.

Peavy, of course, is the less concerning of the two, are odds are slim that he’s going to re-sign with the Red Sox, or any American League team for that matter, this winter. Captain Duck Boat hurled five innings, allowing six hits and four earned runs to the Royals, a performance pretty similar to his World Series start in a Red Sox uniform last year in Game 3 against the St. Louis Cardinals (four innings, six hits, two earned runs).

The Giants loved what they got out of Peavy after acquiring him over the summer in exchange for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree. Peavy was 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA for San Francisco over the last two months of the season. He only walked 17 batters over 12 starts for the Giants in the regular season. He’s walked eight over three starts in October alone, though he was magnificent otherwise in an NLDC start against the Washington Nationals.

If the trade to San Francisco cemented anything, though, it’s that Peavy’s future lies in the National League, where he’s found the bulk of the success over his career. Toronto, Detroit, and his former team, the Chicago White Sox, were the only three AL teams he managed to beat in 2014, en route to a 7-13 record (1-9 with the Red Sox), that wasn’t entirely his fault thanks to menial run support with Boston. He’s 98-72 with a 3.23 ERA over 224 starts in the NL for his career, 41-39 with a 4.13 mark over 113 starts with the White and Red Sox.

Bring him back to Boston on a two-year, $20 million deal? Sure. You could do worse. But Peavy is going to do better than that in the NL market, and it’s clearly in his best interests to do so.

It’s also in Boston’s best interests to limit themselves in the oncoming James Shields hysteria.

For a guy nicknamed “Big Game,” Shields was anything but in his Game 1 start on Tuesday, lasting only three innings. Five runs later, he gave way to the Kansas City bullpen, and opened the door to questions as to whether the 32-year-old righty is worth the $100 million that’s likely to come to him this offseason.

The resounding consensus: Hell, no.

This week marked Shields’ ninth career postseason start, four of them coming this month with the Royals. He’s 3-5 with a 5.74 ERA in his playoff career. He pitched a six-inning gem against the Angels in the ALDS, and shut out the Phillies over 5 2/3 innings in the 2008 World Series. That’s it. That’s his “Big Game” resume.

Yuck.

Shields has been a good pitcher during his time with the Rays and Royals, averaging 14 wins and 34 starts per season, the latter a big reason why teams may be waiting in line this winter to speak to his agents. His dependability is key, especially for a team talking about investing five or six years and $100 million-plus for a pitcher.

If that’s the reason the Red Sox give for chasing after Shields, they’re hypocrites.

When it comes to arguing which is the better option between Jon Lester and Shields, there’s no debate. Lester is the better pitcher, while Shields may deliver the better contract. Lester has averaged 16 wins per season with the Red Sox and A’s, again, with an average of 34 starts each year. He’s 6-4 in the postseason, with a 2.57 ERA. In two World Series, he’s 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA.

Remember, the Sox offered Lester four years and $70 million last spring, a contract that will likely double in value after a season in which the lefty went 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA. Shields had a similar year; 14-8, 3.21.

Lester will be 31 on Jan. 7. Shields will be 33 on Dec. 20.

So, the Red Sox didn’t want to go long-term and big dollars with a guy who will be 31 at the start of the season, but are presumably OK with doing the same with a guy who will be two years older? Got it.

Part of this ridiculous thought process is that while teams might go batty in a bidding war over the lefty Lester, the competition may be more realistic in the years they’re willing to give Shields. If the Red Sox offer four years, there might be another team out there willing to give five, but not terribly likely. If they offered Lester five years, four or five other teams would have a six-year contract written up within minutes.

There are expected to be a number of teams interested in Shields as well, but the Red Sox can come in on the high end to start things, and end any negotiations swiftly. Lester’s price tag will be attainable for only a select few in the market, and the Red Sox likely won’t waste too much of their time other than to make an offer that will look good in the morning headlines. If they do end up trading Yoenis Cespedes this winter, you can bet that news of their offer to Lester will conveniently arise at the same time.

Shields is the safer signing. Lester is the better one. The Red Sox are about getting better this offseason. Aren’t they?

As team owner John Henry said last summer, “Jon Lester has been consistently strong in his career and durable. But with any player over 30, you have to be cognizant of the risks.”

Carl Crawford turned 30 during his first year with the Red Sox, who gave him seven years and $142 million the previous December. If the fear of what happened with that disaster is fueling what the Red Sox were willing to give Lester, then Sox fans should settle in to expect short-term deals be the norm. Hey, it worked for 2013, right?

The Lester trade looks worse all the time, but nowhere near the stupidity of the Sox’ once and final offer to the lefty last year. If the return happens to be James Shields pitching in Fenway next season, it will be good enough.

Safe.

But better? Please.