Jake Peavy, Red Sox stopper?
Five pitchers in the American League have thrown at least 85 innings this season with a K/9 rate of 8.5 or higher and a WHIP below 1.12.
They are:
| Rk | Player | IP | GS | W | L | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yu Darvish | 11.86 | 145.2 | 1.043 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 102 | 44 | 50 | 192 | 2.72 | 156 | 18 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 9.95 | 158.1 | 0.903 | 23 | 17 | 1 | 108 | 50 | 35 | 175 | 2.84 | 148 | 14 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 9.70 | 149.1 | 1.058 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 123 | 46 | 35 | 161 | 2.77 | 156 | 13 |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | 9.18 | 165.2 | 1.099 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 150 | 44 | 32 | 169 | 2.39 | 154 | 12 |
| 5 | Jake Peavy | 8.59 | 87.0 | 1.115 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 78 | 40 | 19 | 83 | 4.14 | 105 | 15 |
The list gets shorter when a BB/9 of 2.0 or lower is added to the parameters:
| Rk | Player | IP | GS | W | L | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 9.95 | 158.1 | 0.903 | 1.99 | 23 | 17 | 1 | 108 | 50 | 35 | 175 | 2.84 | 148 | 14 |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez | 9.18 | 165.2 | 1.099 | 1.74 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 150 | 44 | 32 | 169 | 2.39 | 154 | 12 |
| 3 | Jake Peavy | 8.59 | 87.0 | 1.115 | 1.97 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 78 | 40 | 19 | 83 | 4.14 | 105 | 15 |
Peavy is ninth in K/9 overall, 0.01 behind Justin Verlander. He’s 10th in WHIP, a spot ahead of Jered Weaver. Sure, his ERA is a bit high (4.14, above the league average of 4.02 and not far off from his 4.07 FIP), and he’s given up 15 home runs. He’s also too familiar with the disabled list.
But those peripherals are encouraging at the least. He’s better than the conventional wisdom that he’s a quality third starter, nothing more. For those of us prone to hyperbole, his dazzling star-turn in his Red Sox debut brought to mind vintage performances of Bret Saberhagen, David Cone, and, well, Jake Peavy.
At 32 and with durability issues, it’s probably unfair to expect him to be an ace every fifth day. Once in a while he’ll probably look like 2001 Saberhagen or 2001 Cone. But on many if not most nights, he’ll be capable of trading pitches with even the most highest-end opposition, whether that’s Yu Darvish, King Felix or David Price.
Truthfully, the Red Sox almost need him to be able to do that. Should they fall out of the lead in the AL East — something I’m not expecting to happen, but a reasonable scenario — they’d seem to be at a fairly significant disadvantage in the contrived one-game wild-card playoff. Who is the go-to starter, the true ace, in that win-or-go-home scenario?
Maybe it’s not Peavy. But I don’t know who else it is. Clay Buchholz was arguably the top pitcher in the AL the last time he took the mound. That was June 8. Who knows what September has in store for him, presuming he even makes 4-5 starts before the playoffs.
John Lackey might be the best bet. He has had success in big games, winning Game 7 of the 2002 World Series as a rookie and shutting down the Red Sox in ’09 while he was with the Angels. He has an ace’s ERA (3.21) and is striking out nearly a batter per inning. But there’s something that leaves you less than enthused about him as a wild-card or Game 1 starter. It’s Lackey, you know? Maybe he’s not a beloved fan-favorite just yet.
Jerry Remy suggested recently, and without much hesitation, that he’d go with Jon Lester in such a scenario. He’d be my last choice among viable candidates. (See you in the middle innings, Ryan Dempster.) He deserves credit for his fast start, which was essential in the Red Sox setting this thing right. But there are too many what-ifs and moral victories that aren’t necessarily accompanied by a Red Sox victory. It’s tough to trust him right now.
Maybe the one we should be trusting more is Felix Doubront. His extraordinary and prolonged run of high-quality performances is starting to gain notice. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 15 consecutive starts, and as David Sabino noted this morning, he has a 2.55 ERA since May 16, fourth in the AL behind Bartolo Colon, Max Scherzer, and Hiroki Kuroda in that span.
He’s been impressive for a long time now, in essence the pitcher we were counting on Lester to be. I think we’re all still in prove-it-again mode with Doubront because of his youth, past maturity issues, and occasional lack of command. But damned if he isn’t proving it time and again lately. If this keeps up, Doubront’s brilliance will eventually become the expectation rather than the pleasant bonus it’s perceived as right now.
It’s funny, Peavy has made just one start for the Sox, but already I do believe in him to deliver when they need him to come through. That certainly applies to tonight’s game. The Sox were shut down by lefty soft-tosser Bruce Chen (so that’s why they supposedly coveted him for Game 163 in 2011) Thursday night, and that followed having to scrap to take two of three from the lowly Astros.
The Red Sox are playing from ahead in the standings, but they’ve been playing from behind far too often lately. An easy one, a drama-free win, would be nice. They’ve got the right pitcher on the mound to make it happen.
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