Ranking the Red Sox, 25 to 1

I’ve been putting together these periodic 25-to-1 rankings of the Red Sox roster for three or four seasons now. It’s always a fun task, one that reveals the real strengths and weak spots on the roster.

I can say with certainty that this year’s exercise in rating the individual importance of each player had a different vibe to it. First, there’s considerably less star power in years past when, say, someone like Jonathan Papelbon may not crack the top 10. Yet there’s a little more depth — potential contributors such as Ryan Lavarnway, Daniel Bard, and Rubby De La Rosa didn’t make the cut — and the process serves to emphasize the remarkable array of talent that has been accumulated in the bullpen.

It’s a really interesting collection of players that new manager John Farrell (pictured in 2010) will oversee. Here’s where they each stand as spring training finally arrives on the horizon.

25. Pedro Ciriaco

He has a strong if inaccurate arm, runs well and plays hard, offers positional versatility, swings at everything he can see, and torments the Yankees. Not a bad profile for a 25th man.

24. Daniel Nava

He turns 30 in February, and a defensively adequate corner outfielder without much pop or speed is someone who is always going to be clinging to a roster spot. But he has a knack for getting on base — his .352 on-base percentage was second among Red Sox in ‘12 to David Ortiz — and perhaps it’s telling that Ben Cherington has not found an upgrade as a platoon partner for Jonny Gomes in left field.

23. Franklin Morales

The hard-throwing lefty (76 strikeouts in 76.1 innings) had his moments as a starter last season, most notably a duel with the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez in which Morales pitched seven shutout innings. It’s hard to imagine a sixth starter/long reliever with more potential than Morales. He could rocket up this list.

22. Craig Breslow

The veteran lefty has bounced around — he’s on his sixth team and his second stint with the Red Sox — yet he’s about as dependable as situational relievers get, with only one subpar season (2009, Oakland) on his resume. His second-most similar player all-time is former Red Sox lefty Hideki Okajima.

21. Alfredo Aceves

The rubber-armed righty was brilliant two years ago (2.61 ERA in 55 appearances) and dismal-to-insubordinate last year (5.36 ERA, 25 saves, 10 losses). If he’s in the right frame of mind, he can be a major asset, but the Red Sox won’t have a high tolerance for selfish behavior this year.

20. Andrew Miller

The 6-foot-7-inch former phenom finally found his niche — and his command — last season as a dependable lefthanded arm out of the bullpen, finishing with a 3.35 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 40.1 innings.

19. David Ross

An outstanding defensive catcher and a strong clubhouse presence, the 35-year-old Ross has also been a quietly productive hitter against both righthanded (.771 career OPS) and lefthanded (.764) over the course of his career. He hasn’t played more than 62 games in a season since 2008. The Red Sox may be tempted to push him into a straight platoon.

18. Andrew Bailey

He’s ranked so low only because of major skepticism that he’ll be on the roster come Opening Day. He’s a career-long closer who has already been told he won’t have that job here with the arrival of the less accomplished Joel Hanrahan. Bet on a spring training trade.

17. Jonny Gomes

There were a few eyebrows raised when the Red Sox signed the journeyman outfielder to a two-year, $10 million deal in December. But his power is legitimate — he had 18 homers and an .868 OPS last year for the surprising A’s — and he draws rave reviews as a teammate.

16. Koji Uehara

The 37-year-old is one of baseball’s most consistent relief pitchers, with a 0.92 WHIP and an average of 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings over the course of his four-year career. He’s also one of the most unsung, probably because he’s not a closer (14 career saves). He’ll serve as the bridge from the starters to the back of the bullpen, and it’s an important role in which he should thrive.

15. Junichi Tazawa

One of the few positive developments during the dismal 2012 season was the emergence of Tazawa as a dependable and often excellent late-inning relief option. In his first full season after Tommy John surgery, Tazawa struck out 45 and walked just five, finishing with a 1.43 ERA in 37 appearances. He’s positioned to be the chief righthanded setup man this season, and may even be the closer-in-waiting.

14. Joel Hanrahan

The new closer had a sensational season in 2011 for the Pirates (1.83 ERA, 40 saves, 1.049 WHIP) and followed up with a very good season last year (36 saves, 2.72 ERA) that was marred by a brutal September. His spike in walks (36) and homers (eight allowed in 59.2 innings) is cause for some concern, but he says he’s fixed a mechanical flaw and should be as effective as ever in the ninth inning.

13. Felix Doubront

The 25-year-old lefty had many encouraging moments in his first full big-league season, winning 11 games and striking out 167 in 161 innings. But he needs to bring down that 4.86 ERA during his second season in the rotation, and it’s best he shake that late-season, Lester-like habit of letting perceived bad calls affect him.

12. Jarrod Saltalamacchia

If you knew that Salty led the Red Sox in home runs last year with 25, well, a hat-tip to you for continuing to watch all the way through the abysmal final months of the ‘12 season. The 27-year-old has significant flaws — he struck out 139 times and had a puny .288 on-base percentage — but that power is a true asset. He’s been the subject of trade rumors all winter, but with Mike Napoli’s hip issues probably putting an end to his days behind the plate, Saltalamacchia may stick around after all.

11. Stephen Drew

From 2008-10, J.D.’s kid brother was one of the most productive shortstops in the game, with 96 doubles, 35 triples, and 48 homers over that span. But a gruesome ankle injury ended his 2011 season after 86 games, and he played just 79 last year between Arizona and Oakland while gradually recovering. If he’s healthy and can still handle the position defensively, he could be one of the steals of the offseason, but it’s a big if.

10. Ryan Dempster

The 15-year veteran wasn’t the flashiest signing, but he should deliver what the Red Sox need: a decent, dependable starter capable of providing 180 to 200 innings from the No. 4 spot in the rotation. It’s fair to presume he’ll be a .500 pitcher — his career record is 124-124.

9. John Lackey

His 2011 season was the worst a Red Sox starter has ever had … and the perception of his off-the-field antics actually made him more unlikeable than his inept pitching did, which was quite a feat in retrospect. But you know what? He deserves the benefit of the doubt. Really.

Yes, he’s overpaid, but his perma-sneer and awful body language betrays a true competitor who pitched through a damaged elbow during that lousy season. Healthy perhaps for the first time since he’s been here, he has a real shot a redemption in the role of workhorse No. 3 starter.

8. Mike Napoli

With 15 homers in 145 career plate appearances against Boston during the regular season, Napoli is long established as a tormentor of Red Sox pitching. While the Sox never could solve him, they did manage to sign him, though his official arrival dragged out through much drama surrounding the condition of his hips. A three-year, $39 million deal eventually was altered to one year and $5 million plus reachable incentives. Given that he still has no symptoms of the avascular necrosis that was diagnosed in his hips, there’s a decent chance he ends up providing 25-homer power in the middle of the Sox lineup.

7. Shane Victorino

The longtime Phillies (and temporary Dodgers) sparkplug will provide all-out energy and fine defense in right field, but the 32-year-old is coming off his worst offensive season (91 OPS+) since 2006, his first as a regular. If he can return to his 2011 level, when he posted an .847 OPS and finished 13th in the National League Most Valuable Player balloting, he will be a tremendous asset.

6. Will Middlebrooks

The young third baseman entered last season as the Red Sox’s top prospect, and he ended it as a certain cornerstone for the future, albeit one with an injury to overcome. Middlebrooks hit 15 homers in 75 games before his season was ended when he was hit by a pitch and suffered a broken wrist on August 11.

He’ll be ready to go for spring training, and while he has areas that require improvement (he walked just 13 times against 70 strikeouts), it’s reasonable to expect him to be the third baseman and a middle-of-the-order bat for years to come.

5. Clay Buchholz

How miserable was the Red Sox’ starting rotation last year? Buchholz was the team’s best starter — and he finished the year with a 4.56 ERA. The 28-year-old has the talent to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, as he proved in 2010 when he was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. He pitched a career-high in innings last year (189.1), and the Red Sox need him to be both durable and highly effective in the season ahead. If you think he should be higher, I won’t argue.

4. David Ortiz

The Reds’ Joey Votto was the only player in the majors with at least 300 plate appearances last season to have a higher OPS than Ortiz, whose 1.026 OPS was his best since 2007. The catch, of course, is that Ortiz played just 90 games — one after July 16 — because of a heel injury. Ortiz’s recovery lingered into the offseason, and the Red Sox are counting on the 38-year-old more than they probably should.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

The center fielder was the best offensive player in the American League in 2011 when he hit 32 homers and 46 doubles, had a .923 OPS, and stole 39 bases. But that brilliant season is sandwiched by two years essentially lost to injury. He played just 18 games in ‘10 after breaking his ribs, and a fluke shoulder injury derailed his ‘12 season. He played 74 games, but hit just four homers.

Ellsbury, a free agent after the season, has incentive to have a monster season.

2. Jon Lester

It wasn’t so long ago that the big lefthander was one of the premier pitchers in the American League, with at least 15 wins and an ERA between 3.21 and 3.47 every year from 2008-11. It just feels like a long time ago because Lester was terrible in 2012, with a 4.82 ERA, just nine wins, and a diminished 7.3 strikeout rate. If the Red Sox are going to have any shot at contention, it’s imperative that the 29-year-old rediscovers his previous form.

1. Dustin Pedroia

The tough, talented second baseman tried to set the tone for 2013 in the final game last season when he played despite a broken finger. His leadership and a return to outstanding production (his .797 OPS last year was a career full-season low) are crucial as the Red Sox try to change their culture and become a likable, winning team again.

You rank the Red Sox

Here’s your chance to rank the Red Sox as you see fit. Go to our Rank the 2013 Red Sox page and make your picks, then submit it to see how it compares to Chad Finn’s rankings and a list that shows the consensus picks of all readers.

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