Second-half predictions for Red Sox

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

The funniest prediction I’ve read regarding the second half of the MLB season came from Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe, who wrote that Bobby Valentine will be fired, “possibly out of a cannon.’’ I won’t go that far – I’m actually more skeptical of the dumped-as-manager part more so than the cannon part, since selling mini-cannon balls for $100 a pop sounds like a potential revenue generator and admitting hiring mistakes is not a strength of the current Red Sox management hierarchy. But I will swing for the fences with this: here are my nine bold predictions regarding what we’ll see the rest of the way from the 2012 Red Sox.

1. Ben Cherington will not make a major trade:

It’s all well and good to suggest trading Josh Beckett, who seems to be the first pick for every frustrated Sox fan’s get-him-gone team. Whether the perception is reality or not, he’s still the stubborn, underachieving embodiment of everything that has been wrong with this team since last September, and his 4-7 record doesn’t help. But any suggestion he needs to go needs to be tempered by his 10/5 rights and the fact he is unlikely to return anything resembling equal talent. Cherington isn’t going to deal Beckett or any other underachieving star. The best he can do is kick John Lackey out of the dugout.

2. Carl Crawford will play an actual major-league game:

And for the Red Sox, no less! Pardon the cynicism, but Crawford has had more injuries (wrist, which carried over from last year, elbow, and now groin) during his second season with the Red Sox than he has played games (that would be zero). More alarmingly, he’s suggested that his left elbow is “going to go out on me’’ at some point and he will eventually need Tommy John surgery. He may make his Red Sox season debut soon – he restarted the clock on his 20-day rehab assignment Thursday and may play Monday – but it’s hard to imagine he’ll stay healthy all season.

3. Jon Lester will get his act together:

The mysteriously mediocre lefthander tweeted the other day that he wants to spend his whole career in Boston. It’s a nice sentiment, but you’d never know that watching his mannerisms on the mound. Perhaps his alternately grim and grouchy demeanor has to do with his struggles (5-6, 4.49 ERA) and his frustration in trying to solve them, but the reality is the 28-year-old needs to stop letting what he perceives as bad calls to affect him and start pitching like the would-be ace who won 19 games and whiffed 225 just two seasons ago. I believe he will and can do it. And then maybe he’ll look like he’s having fun once in a while.

4. Ryan Lavarnway will make a significant contribution:

In Year One of the post-Tek era, Jarrod Saltamacchia has shown genuine signs of being the long-term answer behind the plate, with 17 home runs in just 249 plate appearances, a .513 slugging percentage, and a number of important hits. But he also has his obvious flaws – he’s whiffed 72 times, has just a .285 on-base percentage, and has struggled lately, with a .208 average in June and just two hits in 25 at-bats this month. He wore down last year with less playing time. With the promising Lavarnway raking in Pawtucket (.858 OPS), the Sox will deal backup Kelly Shoppach and bring him up.

5. Clay Buchholz will lead the Red Sox in wins:

Yeah, the Red Sox rotation isn’t exactly reminding anyone of the 1971 Baltimore Orioles and their four 20-game winners. But at 8-2, Buchholz is second on the staff in victories behind nine-game winner Felix Doubront, and thanks to great run-support, he’s accumulated wins despite pitching horribly in April (8.69 ERA) and slightly less horribly in May (5.60 ERA). On the encouraging side, Buchholz was exceptional in June (4-0, 2.40 ERA) before being sidelined with esophagitis. Should he return to the mound and his June form soon, he should end up with 15 or so wins.

6. Adrian Gonzalez will lead the league in doubles

Perhaps few noticed given that he apparently left his power at last year’s Home Run Derby, but Gonzalez is leading the American League entering the second half with 27 two-baggers. Now feel free to file this one under “small consolations’’ if you want, because if Gonzalez doesn’t start hitting the ball over the fence at something approximating his past rate (he has just six homers this year after averaging 32 per season from 2008-11), the Red Sox may have to ask themselves some difficult questions about what kind of player they have going forward.

7. Further tales of clubhouse discord will trickle out

The Red Sox front office’s biggest mistake of the offseason was not trading Josh Reddick or Jed Lowrie. It was letting the managerial search drag on and on, then once Bobby Valentine was hired in late November, it was magnified by saddling him with coaches he had no relationship with but management wanted to retain. It’s one thing for segments of players to have an issue with the manager – that happens in every clubhouse to some degree — but when there are cliques among the coaching staff, that doesn’t discourage dysfunction. It spawns it.

8. Will Middlebrooks will struggle …

at least in relation to his marvelous first half. He played so well that popular, struggling incumbent Kevin Youkilis was dealt to Chicago, where of course he promptly went on a tear. The 23-year-old third baseman is hitting .298 with 10 homers and an .873 OPS, and if not for the meteoric rise by the Angels’ Mike Trout, he might be a rookie of the year favorite. But there are signs both statistical (he has just 9 walks against 44 strikeouts) and aesthetic (he’s looked bad on breaking balls away) that suggest he could struggle. Trading Youkilis was the right thing to do, but don’t expect a total absence of growing pains.

9. The Red Sox will not make the playoffs

You can see how a berth into the tournament in October might happen. Jacoby Ellsbury returns and resembles the force he was a season ago, Carl Crawford does stuff for the Red Sox he used to do against them, Adrian Gonzalez finds his power stroke. Dustin Pedroia gets healthy and hot, Papi keeps doing what he’s done all season, and the rotation stops underachieving while the bullpen continues to overachieve. That’s lot to ask. And with the Yankees and Rangers appearing to be postseason locks, the Angels the strong favorite for the first wild-card, the Tigers and White Sox bracing for an intriguing race in the Central, and the Rays have the pitching advantages over the Red Sox, it’s hard to see them now as a real contender. It’ll be a third straight year without a playoff game at Fenway.

The Red Sox front office’s biggest mistake of the offseason was not trading Josh Reddick or Jed Lowrie. It was letting the managerial search drag on and on, then once Bobby Valentine was hired in late November, it was magnified by saddling him with coaches he had no relationship with but management wanted to retain. It’s one thing for segments of players to have an issue with the manager – that happens in every clubhouse to some degree — but when there are cliques among the coaching staff, that doesn’t discourage dysfunction. It spawns it.