Fantasy island
Man, I’m glad my fantasy baseball draft isn’t for a couple more weeks. Because at this hour it seems like there are about five sure-things and 24 1/2 rounds of question marks.
Lefthanded aces Johan Santana and Cole Hamels have had elbow soreness, which is at least a little alarming — especially if you’re a Mets or Phillies fan. Chase Utley and David Ortiz — both top-12 picks last year in the 10-team mixed league I play in — are among those coming back from worrisome injuries. Joe Mauer has a puzzling back injury, A-Rod is blowing himself butterfly kisses in the mirror for the next 6-9 weeks, Joba Chamberlain is channeling Joe Cowley, and the World Baseball Classic will probably result in some more GM-enraging roster attrition before it’s done. Maybe there aren’t more notable injuries this year . . . but it sure seems that there are.
Yet you can be too cautious when it comes ailing franchise players and other big names. Albert Pujols slid to the third round last year based on whispers that he needed Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t last the season. You know how that played out: He missed all of 14 games, was his usual historically great self (.357, 37 homers), and someone got the steal of the century.
Pujols is probably the consensus No. 1 pick this year, but I’m not here today to tell you who you should take. I’m here to tell you the name players and so-called hot shots you should avoid, whether because of injury, age, a change in venue, or something else.
Now, I’m not saying you shouldn’t draft some of these guys if they’re available a few rounds later than where the Karabells of the world might project them to go. But keeping in mind where they will probably be picked, I don’t see the following players — one at each position — as “good value.” (Bill Belichick™).
(Aside to anyone from my league: These may not be my honest assessments, so don’t consider this post a tip sheet on what I’m thinking. There might be a red herring or two. Really.)
(Aside to anyone who’s not in my league: These are my honest assessments. Shhh. Don’t tell any of my fellow GMs. I’m pretty sure at least three of the goofs have A-Rod atop their draft boards right now. Maybe four.)
CATCHER
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: Given the scarcity of good-hitting catchers, it’s hard to dismiss anyone who might be productive. The obvious choice here should be Mauer, whose health situation makes him a gamble. But he’s just so talented — and he will hit for power someday — that he’s a risk worth taking under most circumstances. He’s still a better bet than, say, than Posada, who will be 38 in August and is coming off major shoulder surgery. By the way, if you have any idea what to make of the sky-is-the-limit projections for Matt Wieters, please, clue me in.
FIRST BASE
Big Papi, Boston Red Sox: I’m confident Papi will rediscover at least some of his old mojo and hit, say, .290-32-105 in 140 or so games. So I’m not saying he’ll be a wasted pick by any means. It’s just that when our local favorites are involved, sometimes sentiment sneaks into the equation and the player ends up getting drafted a few rounds sooner than he should. (Think Jacoby Ellsbury last year.) It’s not difficult to find a productive first baseman, and you could probably get someone like Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena — who will probably post similar power numbers to Papi — several rounds later.
SECOND BASE:
Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins: It was tough to come up with one to avoid at second. The Yankees’ maddening Robinson Cano would seem an obvious choice, but I still like him a lot, assuming he’s healthy. So I reluctantly went with the Marlins’ all-or-nothing slugger, who hit 32 homers last year and whiffed 171 times. You’d think his inability to make consistent contact would catch up with him sooner rather than later, but curiously, his most similar player through age 28 is . . . Carlton Fisk. Make of that what you will, but I’m not drafting Uggla. Fisk, however, still rates among my top dozen catchers, even at age 61.
SHORTSTOP
Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: What, you thought I was going to keep saying kind things about him? You know what they say about old habits. At 35, the sun is setting on Jeter’s days as a productive shortstop — he had just 11 homers and 11 steals last season (call it the 11/11 Club), and his .408 slugging percentage was his lowest since 1997. He’s a $20 million singles hitter now.
THIRD BASE
Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles: Actually, there’s a sizable group of candidates here. Mike Lowell has to prove his hip is healthy. Garret Atkins is productive in Colorado, but I suspect he would be exposed as mediocre elsewhere. (I was hoping the Yankees would trade something good from their farm system for him.) Chipper Jones hit .364 last year, which might make some fellow owners forget he turns 37 in April, hasn’t played more than 137 games since 2003, and is another injury victim of the WBC. And you know A-Rod’s deal. But the one I’d avoid more than anyone else is Mora, who somehow drove in 104 runs last season after being the picture of mediocrity for a couple of years. Not. Happening. Again.
OUTFIELDERS
Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics: I don’t mean to keep playing the Nolan Ryan to your Robin Ventura over this, but it boggles my mind that people think the Oakland version of Holliday is going to be even a reasonable facsimile of the stat-monster slugger he was in Colorado. Let’s take one last shot at logic: He is a .357 at Coors Field in his career, and a .280 hitter away. He has 84 home runs at Coors Field, 44 away — or roughly one every eight road games in his career. His OPS at home? 1.068. Away from his thin-air comfort zone: .803. And he’s going to a pitchers’ park and playing for a team that disregards the running game. Holliday’s a quality offensive player — think something in the range of a slightly-past-his-peak Tim Salmon and the current version of J.D. Drew — but he is not an elite slugger.
Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays: He’s just not the player his talent and salary suggest he should be. ESPN’s Matt Meyers made a compelling argument that Wells is a bust based on his failure to match his sensational age-24 season (.317, 33 homers, 117 RBIs, 215 hits, 132 adjusted OPS). Plus, he’s injury prone. Let him become someone else’s frustration.
Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals: Thirty-seven homers has to be a fluke . . . doesn’t it? Also considered: B.J. Upton, Rays (a beast in the playoffs, but has yet to prove he can stay healthy and interested for the full 162).
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres: Victories are going to be hard-earned since the Padres’ offense appears to be designed as some sort of bizarre tribute to Enzo Hernandez, and as it is Peavy has won more than 15 games just once in six full seasons. I also suspect he might end up being one of the scarred victims of the WBC.
CLOSER
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets: We believe this is one of the 10 (or so) commandments of fantasy baseball: Never draft a closer in the first 10 rounds. But some rube in your league will see the 62 saves next to K-Rod’s name and think it was somehow representative of his abilities as a closer rather than the fact that the Angels seemed to give him a save opportunity on a nightly basis. And if you don’t have a rube who makes such decisions in your league, you really should get one. They’re fun.
SUPERPROSPECT
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays: You don’t need to be J.D. Drew to know he’s the total package — electric arm, intelligent, poised, and lefthanded. But before commanding the October stage, he struggled in four Triple A starts (4.50 ERA, 31 baserunners in 18 innings), and even Rays fans recognize he’s far from a finished product. And overdrafting young pitching often backfires — ask the guy who took Clay Buchholz in the sixth round in your league last year. If you must have a Rays lefty, Scott Kazmir is probably the better bet, for one more season.
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As for today’s Completely Random Baseball Card:
We don’t recommend drafting Dwight Bernard, either. You know, in case you were wondering.
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